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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

30" of rain in Texas this run

It's not too strong at landfall(probably a TS) but yeah slows to a crawl in TX later
 
Brent said:
30" of rain in Texas this run

It's not too strong at landfall(probably a TS) but yeah slows to a crawl in TX later
Click to expand...
:(
Lord, let's hope it's not a rerun of the movie we just saw ...
... we already paid for that ticket ... theater's getting old ...
:(

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090112_228_5_220.png
 
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Possible recon on Monday

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25.5N 83.0W AT 03/18Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
NEAR SUSPECT AREA IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DEPARTING KLAL AT 03/2000Z AND 04/0800Z.
 
Not a forecast, at all, just an observation and a bit of perplexion ...

This is official ...

two_atl_5d0.png

... orange X way out there north of Haiti ...

... but then this ... in the Gulf now and brewing ...
(downsized the gif to get it to load so you may have to control/click the pic to get it to run the loop)

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

... water vapor gives an idea but does not do the new convection justice ...

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

... and this from FSU ...

CON120NATL_latest.png

... and just wondering if maybe ... are we looking under the wrong rock? ... or not ? ...
 
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Code Orange

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

pcbjr said:
Not a forecast, at all, just an observation and a bit of perplexion ...
Click to expand...

that'a separate thing entirely that will be inland tomorrow and Monday as far as I can tell... the 60% comes from when this gets into the Gulf next week
 
Code red
two_atl_5d1.png
 
Brent said:
Code Orange

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



that'a separate thing entirely that will be inland tomorrow and Monday as far as I can tell... the 60% comes from when this gets into the Gulf next week
Click to expand...
Thanks for the clarification ... ;)
 
Hello new X
2. A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance by the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Getting busy now. Gulf is under the gun, and who knows where Florence will go.
 
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