• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't get to caught up on intensity atm, especially with a system that has yet to develop plus we saw just how difficult intensity is to forecast with Florence (thankfully in the other direction with her). If/when it develops you might see a different picture painted by the models
 
metwannabe said:
I wouldn't get to caught up on intensity atm, especially with a system that has yet to develop plus we saw just how difficult intensity is to forecast with Florence (thankfully in the other direction with her). If/when it develops you might see a different picture painted by the models
Click to expand...
Thanks a ton!!!!
 
Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
Click to expand...

A lot of moving parts in this setup depends on which solution you buy.

Right now I'm still buying the ridge lasting longer than modeled. So if we get a storm I would think LA and MS as landfall areas. So intensity wise you have a much higher chance of continental dry air intrusion and with the trough out west, probable increasing SW shear as you near landfall with shallower shelf water. This is why an intensifying TC hitting these areas are so rare.

However, if you buy the ridge breaking down you get that NW movement to the quick pull NE. That will increase forward speed and also align the movement with the increasing shear, effectively nullifying it. It also would hit the western coast of FL and wouldn't have to deal with the dry air intrusion. Charley comes to mind.
 
Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
Click to expand...
This is not a direct answer, but a thought sincerely shared ...
There is a great link in our Wiki in Tropical>Models ... "Spaghetti Models" - Mike's Weather Page - Massive Tropical Info
Watching that link daily (shear, SST etc.), is a good way to visually "learn" over time how to connect some dots ... in my humble estimation watching a bunch of factors and what ultimately happens as they congeal, or don't, is just as great a teaching/learning tool as a text book ...
Humbly,
Your Curmudgeon
 
pcbjr said:
This is not a direct answer, but a thought sincerely shared ...
There is a great link in our Wiki in Tropical>Models ... "Spaghetti Models" - Mike's Weather Page - Massive Tropical Info
Watching that link daily (shear, SST etc.), is a good way to visually "learn" over time how to connect some dots ... in my humble estimation watching a bunch of factors and what ultimately happens as they congeal, or don't, is just as great a teaching/learning tool as a text book ...
Humbly,
Your Curmudgeon
Click to expand...
Thank you wise one! :) go there many times a day trying to connect dots! Great dataset! Actually googled wind shear today and MJO yesterday! I'be read about opal, Wilma, and Charley. Still looking for a past example that will help me connect a link...."if x happens, then y is a result". o_O
 
Henry2326 said:
connect a link...."if x happens, then y is a result".
Click to expand...
You do that with weather and well, you're supernatural ... :p
... but actually, narrowing possibilities to a reasoned and reasonable finite set, and not just grabbing on to some model, is a real asset to have ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
... but actually, narrowing possibilities to a reasoned and reasonable finite set, and not just grabbing on to some model, is a real asset to have ... :cool:
Click to expand...

....hurricane Nate, October 2017. :rolleyes:;)
The first is forecast several days out...
The second is the change in models as it got closer...
The third is what happened.
Looks like different versions we've been watching over the past couple of days.

"Impinging vertical wind shear" stopped intensification before landfall.

Nate.0.jpg
174129-5day-cone-no-line-and-windjpg-718fa286189bb865.jpg 171006235726-hurricane-nate-path-100617-2350-super-tease.jpg
 
Henry2326 said:
....hurricane Nate, October 2017. :rolleyes:;)
The first is forecast several days out...
The second is the change in models as it got closer...
The third is what happened.
Looks like different versions we've been watching over the past couple of days.

"Impinging vertical wind shear" stopped intensification before landfall.

View attachment 6663
View attachment 6664 View attachment 6665
Click to expand...
I was in the bullseye on the early cones, that was the reasons for the big shift W , as final outcome!
Great post !
 
Per the FV3 06Z run Leslie scrapes Spain/Portugal beforing heading to the UK.... what a weird storm but interesting to watch

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_atl_36.png
 
Eloise 9/23/75 955 MB 125 mph
Opal 10/6/95 . 916 mb 150 mph
Agnes 6/23/72. 977 MB. 85 mph
Florence 9/26/53. 968 MB 115 mph. Landfall 80 mph
Flossy 9/30/56 . 974 MB 90 mph...2 landfall...mouth of MS river and Ft. Walton/Destin, FL

Today's 12z GFS looks like Agnes!

Consistent development:
Opal and Eloise - turned northeastward in response to STRONG TROUGH. Combination of warm sea surface temperature associated with an unusually warm pocket of warm ocean water and an upper level high pressure overbthr gulf of Mexico.
Agnes- developed from interaction of a POLAR FRONT and an upper TROUGH. Upper trough moved east, wind shear decreased. 19" of rain on Pennsylvania.
Florence - intensity decreased because of colder water temperature and cool air.
Flossy - dropped 10-16 inches of rain in the Southeast path.

1_ecqpKJoWoMp3ZgMwvBYYAg.png
at197202.gif
at195308.gif
at195607.gif
 
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
Click to expand...
Larry,
Please. Stop this ... :(
Phil
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
Click to expand...
Fortunately it's just the Euro and EPS, but the EPS has more strong hurricanes for that storm than 91L
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Please. Stop this ... :(
Phil
Click to expand...

I have to agree with Phil here! Just landed in Miramar Beach till next Sunday on vacation. Where I’m from, we struggle with 2 inches of snow, can’t imagine we would hang around if a cane barrels this way.
 
Just keepin it real.... Euro 00z showing possible Nadine same spot, next week. Rinse and repeat....

Screenshot_20181007-105550.jpg
 
The 12z Icon is faster yet the low moves further north before turn.
Honestly the TRACK all depends on the speed of the Tropical Cyclone.
 
as if there wasn't enough to talk about...

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the western
Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected
to support some gradual development after that time while the system
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Wonder with the front pushing through after Michael passes as well as the upwelling of cooler waters if this next system would be anywhere as strong as Michael. Let's just pray that we do not see anything develop from this system!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I was in the bullseye on the early cones, that was the reasons for the big shift W , as final outcome!
Great post !
Click to expand...
Nate gave me a bunch of rain and a near miss from a tornado. Looking back at the radar from that day, I think the couplet either went right over me or less than a mile away, but the tornado was not touching down at the time.
 
k0skinne said:
Wonder with the front pushing through after Michael passes as well as the upwelling of cooler waters if this next system would be anywhere as strong as Michael. Let's just pray that we do not see anything develop from this system!
Click to expand...
I believe, jmo, that the waters are warm enough that upwelling will have minimal effect should another cyclone make its way up the gulf. Appears that the next pattern sets up the week of 10/21.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Until an invest is declared or it gets to 40%+, this is merely model cartoons. I was tempted to say that with the disturbance thread but held back.
Click to expand...
There is one thing we can be certain about any kind of forecast. They are always wrong in some aspect. I consider that with weather, business, financial, or political forecast. But I would say that without them, we know even less. Most can show historical patterns, possibilities, or even an outlier possibility that has not been considered or prepared for.
Obviously, this country has a very real and dangerous problem in communicating dire and critical weather threats. The fear to be wrong, which is probable and has happened, has slowed communication to the point that a real short term threat is ineffective at communication. We are about to see how ineffective in the coming weeks once the death toll from Michael comes to light. The fact that a wealthy progressive nation has a death toll at all from a hurricane is beyond me.
So cartoon or not, getting better at this should be front and center and should be the number one priorty of the weather community. Michael may be the critical failure that propels a spotlight to improve forecast and communication...let's hope so.

P.S. I might add that the model up top is very similar to the last storm in a trend of storms in 1842. History repeats itself. Gordon, Florence, Michael, storm that hits Spain....now this last storm to come in the pattern. I don't know if it will happen or not, but there is risk. Its all about preparation for risk. Maybe the area at the GA/FL line will be prepared since Michael....I really doubt it since they watch the guy on tv to tell them what to do and we know how ineffective that's been.

P.S.S. I thought this was a global model run discussion board about forecast, not a lets only talk about it when it happens board.
 
Last edited:
Just something to keep an eye on but with these fronts dropping through and hanging up in the GOM you always have to watch out for tropical mischief.... such as this. It's weak, one run and a long ways out but not 360 hrs out.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
 
metwannabe said:
Just something to keep an eye on but with these fronts dropping through and hanging up in the GOM you always have to watch out for tropical mischief.... such as this. It's weak, one run and a long ways out but not 360 hrs out.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
Click to expand...
GFS throws 2 opportunities last night, this one and another, same pattern, over the 15 day period. It continues to show up. Interesting also, this is the last storm in the 1842 pattern also. Low from Texas crossing FL, up the east coast. It it happens, I'm gonna get out my history book. Lol
P.S. THE wild ride out there between 10/25 and 11/1, says to me "beware, possibilities abound. Something unpleasant has an opportunity to develop. Are you prepared for the risk?" It softened a little bit in the 12z today.
 
FV3 showing some funky tropical mischief around the same time in the same location, even runs a system up the EC (although I'm not 100% certain it's fully a tropical system)..... again just something to keep an eye on but the GFS has been decent in sniffing out threats in the long range before.
 
Way out there, but conditions favorable for something to spin up down there near the Hebert box. This time period seems ready to do something.

Screenshot_20181015-142951.jpg
 
And 12Z Euro comes along with CMC a little sooner....wonder if UKmet likes the conditions...anyone have it?

Screenshot_20181015-153956.jpg
 
Anything that does form will have a ton of dry air to deal with near the coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Arcc said:
Look at 500mb. That is a shortwave induced non-tropical low.

Edit: in fact a beautiful Miller A that we would be squealing about in the dead of winter.
Click to expand...

I thought the same thing . “ damn if this were mid February “

Only a matter of time . We are getting closer and closer


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The models really believe this is going to form, but the troughs will keep it far OTS.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean is associated with a surface trough. This trough is
expected to move slowly northward over the next few days into an
area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development. A tropical or subtropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to
the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top