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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

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From Wx Underground
 
Webberweather53 said:
Of arguably more concern, with the ITCZ generally progressing equatorward in the summer hemisphere, the rainy season will make a triumphant return in Central America, and thus there's going to be a major uptick in large-scale upward motion over the Western Hemisphere as we turn the page into October. The JMA, GEFS, & EPS all agree on this transpiring, and it'll likely piggy-back onto one of the pre-existing Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) that's currently in the eastern hemisphere. The chance of a tropical cyclone forming in either the Northeastern Pacific, Caribbean Sea, and/or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the first half of October will be much higher than climatology given how convectively active Central America is forecast to become. This will be something to watch in the coming weeks.

JMA
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GFS Ensemble
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EPS
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I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
 
NCSNOW said:
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From Wx Underground
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Yep, this scenario has shown up several times in the past 3 days. The other option that has shown up several times has been the Apalachicola area, crossing into GA (Navgem 00z). The 06z for FV3 is the first time its pushed that far west and strong.
 
Models aren't going to be anywhere close right now in this situation until something actually develops.... this isn't a wave we're tracking it's waiting for development, where, when, etc have massive implications for later. With that said, this is the Global model run discussion so I'll add that the EPS seems to like the S. Fl to GOM idea atm
 
metwannabe said:
Models aren't going to be anywhere close right now in this situation until something actually develops.... this isn't a wave we're tracking it's waiting for development, where, when, etc have massive implications for later. With that said, this is the Global model run discussion so I'll add that the EPS seems to like the S. Fl to GOM idea atm
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Thank you; it needed saying, soberly ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
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Any of the models had better success in the past of forecasting this area?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
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Thank you!! I'm learning every day!! :)
 
Since yesterday evening through this morning ... animated (though I had to make it "smaller" to post, so you may have to option or control/click to make it run ??? ... control/click on a Mac) ....

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

If it won't animate for someone, here's the link, but the link is not static so the image will change on the link down the road ... http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
 
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ForsythSnow said:
And again with the paint maps he goes.

Also, as mentioned, the EPS is mainly in the Gulf. A few nasty members too.
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Personally, I would go with a more western track. Until the thing dies, you have to go with the ridge staying strong in the long range which would mean a WNW to NW track across the Central/eastern GOM.
 
BHS1975 said:
By looking at the latest visible loop there might be a depression soon.


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Right now there is no evidence of a surface circulation anywhere so I don't think we see any upgrades. There appears to be a spin in the mid levels but right now it hasn't worked down to the surface.
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The Euro develops this right around where that deep convection currently resides....
 
Arcc said:
Personally, I would go with a more western track. Until the thing dies, you have to go with the ridge staying strong in the long range which would mean a WNW to NW track across the Central/eastern GOM.
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FV3 agrees with you....hangs it up for several days under the ridge as far west as it can go....

Screenshot_20181002-145644.jpg
 
Euro directing a H at Fl... but it's just one run 10 days out
edit: actually a strong tropical storm
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_11.png
 
0z Euro pretty much is storm cancel, barely pops a very weak low near Eastern FL at 240

0z GFS was very weak into the Central Gulf then it dies
 
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ForsythSnow said:
On the other hand, the NAVGEM and CMC have been very consistent on the same path into the gulf and a low forming soon.
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Yeah, our local Mets are on it!! They said none of the models are showing this disturbance affecting any U.S land masses!:(:mad:
 
pcbjr said:
Not the new one from the box set release, "Gainesville," I trust ... o_O
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Oh no, it's either the classic "I Won't Back Down" or his last release before his untimely departure from this world "Hit Louisiana and Leave Mack High N Dry Again"

gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png
 
GaWx said:
ICON: questionable credibility
GFS: some credibility
CMC: very little credibility, especially when Euro has nothing even close to it; has a very strong tendency to overstrengthen
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Speaking of credibility.....nah wrong thread ;)
 
metwannabe said:
Oh no, it's either the classic "I Won't Back Down" or his last release before his untimely departure from this world "Hit Louisiana and Leave Mack High N Dry Again"

gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png
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Actually I figured you were humming "don't come around here no more ..." :p
 
GaWx said:
ICON: questionable credibility
GFS: some credibility
CMC: very little credibility, especially when Euro has nothing even close to it; has a very strong tendency to overstrengthen
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What do you think of navgem? :)
 
I'm not Larry but my experience tells me it tends to be TC happy, in other words very often over develops and intensifies tropical systems. I'd put it in the CMC category
Henry2326 said:
What do you think of navgem? :)
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