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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

This is one of the most aggressive NHC intensity forecasts I've seen in a little while, this is for Tropical Storm Norman in the East Pacific, which may become a category 4 hurricane in the next few days. Really hope it misses Hawaii.
INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
 
Our wave over far western Africa certainly has a good shot to become our first legitimate Cape Verde storm of the hurricane season, more will probably follow.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Our wave over far western Africa certainly has a good shot to become our first legitimate Cape Verde storm of the hurricane season, more will probably follow.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
Next invest soon?
 
By day 5 on this Euro run, our tropical wave over the Antilles begins to consolidate as it approaches Florida around Labor Day, our X'd area of interest in West Africa is intensifying over the open Atlantic, and another wave is coming right on its heels.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png
 
Euro way weaker with the Gulf storm now. Has gotten weaker and weaker since the hurricane run Monday Night. SE of New Orleans/south of AL/FL at 168 but very weak

1011 near New Orleans at 192
 
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The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.
 
On that note ^

drfo76.jpg
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posing the image. Yeah, this 12Z EPS has just about as many TCs but they're mainly TDs/far fewer blues (TSs)/sub 999s. However, this 12Z EPS has one H a cat 2 hitting TX. I didn't see any cat Hs on the 0Z or any earlier EPS run fwiw.
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For all this one person cares, they can all ignite ... like a wet ladyfinger ... ;)
 
if it makes it all the way to Texas I do wonder if it could be pretty strong though... I mean unless shear is unfavorable??? that's several days over water

further east would definitely be on the weaker side probably
 
Anything "major" for now looks like it's headed to Heathrow; anything local looks like a nice breezy little rainstorm ... can sleep well tonight with that ... but then, there's tomorrow's runs ...

basin_wind_ecmf_gen_atl_2018082912.png

(for a secondary source, go to Wiki>Tropical>Models and look at the FSU models ...)
 
The 2nd or 3rd wave coming off Africa behind the one the NHC x'd are likely the ones to watch in the longer term. There were quite a few EPS members (yet again) w/ intense or very intense hurricanes north of the Greater Antilles and/or in the central Atlantic as we got past day 10. Yeah, that's a long ways out but it will be virtually the climatological peak of the season by then so it's worth watching anyway even from a climatological standpoint, because crappy years can still produce big dogs during September.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 2nd or 3rd wave coming off Africa behind the one the NHC x'd are likely the ones to watch in the longer term. There were quite a few EPS members (yet again) w/ intense or very intense hurricanes north of the Greater Antilles and/or in the central Atlantic as we got past day 10. Yeah, that's a long ways out but it will be virtually the climatological peak of the season by then so it's worth watching anyway even from a climatological standpoint, because crappy years can still produce big dogs during September.
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Webb, just sayin' ... nothing crappy if we don't have to watch it up close and in person this year ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Webb, just sayin' ... nothing crappy if we don't have to watch it up close and in person this year ... ;)
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definitely think residents in southeast Texas, south Florida, and Puerto Rico would concur. Amazed we had 3 category 4-5 hurricanes (Irma, Jose, and Maria) all pass in the climatological sweet spot near and north of PR for a big NC hit and we came away completely unscathed, if it wasn't for Jose lingering around off the east coast, it seems at least probable that NC, SC, GA, or FL would have taken a hit from hurricane Maria because Jose is the only reason it escaped out to sea.
 
Webberweather53 said:
definitely think residents in southeast Texas, south Florida, and Puerto Rico would concur. Amazed we had 3 category 4-5 hurricanes (Irma, Jose, and Maria) all pass in the climatological sweet spot near and north of PR for a big NC hit and we came away completely unscathed, if it wasn't for Jose lingering around off the east coast, it seems at least probable that NC, SC, GA, or FL would have taken a hit from hurricane Maria because Jose is the only reason it escaped out to sea.
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Always enjoy talkin' with you ... :D

1 place you missed, though ... NE FL and up the GA coast ... ;)
 
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