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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

GaWx said:
The 12Z FV3 illustrates quite well the forecasting nightmare that may be ahead and may last a long time. The run once again leaves behind a residual Leslie related 500 mb weakness long enough to attract Caribbean energy up E of FL on 10/9 instead of into the Gulf. Afterward, the very strong MidAtlantic states ridge gets established and traps it just off the SE US coast 3 days before finally moving NE OTS 10/13-14.
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Larry,
Please. Keep broadcasting off shore ... :rolleyes:
Best!
Phil

PS ... Bastardi doesn't even have anything exciting, so we must be in a rut ... o_O
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z FV3 illustrates quite well the forecasting nightmare that may be ahead and may last a long time. The run once again leaves behind a residual Leslie related 500 mb weakness long enough to attract Caribbean energy up E of FL on 10/9 instead of into the Gulf. Afterward, the very strong MidAtlantic states ridge gets established and traps it just off the SE US coast 3 days before finally moving NE OTS 10/13-14.
Click to expand...
I see the Euro is showing some development as well but does not have that 500 mb weakness left behind by Leslie as the FV3 shows, either way this is certainly the hotbed to watch over the coming week or so.
 
SD said:
Gotta watch the Caribbean over the next few days to see if anything can get going. A track toward the US would seem somewhat possible if development occurred

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You called it and all models are hinting at something now.... certainly something to watch.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z FV3 illustrates quite well the forecasting nightmare that may be ahead and may last a long time. The run once again leaves behind a residual Leslie related 500 mb weakness long enough to attract Caribbean energy up E of FL on 10/9 instead of into the Gulf. Afterward, the very strong MidAtlantic states ridge gets established and traps it just off the SE US coast 3 days before finally moving NE OTS 10/13-14.
Click to expand...

I've been watching and hoping that every "next" run swings it out to sea, quickly.. The 12z FV3 scenario is a horrible possibility. It will paralyze the coast of south and north Carolina, maybe Georgia and North Florida too, with evacuations and waiting to see "where she stops, and nobody knows". Better than getting slammed!
Any scenario with positioning for any model version, predicts a possible ugly picture in the next 2 weeks for somebody. (Except Euro OP...can you see if any members are running with the other models?)
 
12Z Euro 228 just off SE FL in NW Bahamas. Weak. Then moves NNE (stays off FL) as ridging to north starts to weaken. I’d bet that later maps would have recurved it offshore the US as ridging would very likely keep pulling out/weaken. Different scenario of many possibilities.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro 228 just off SE FL in NW Bahamas. Weak. Then moves NNE (stays off FL) as ridging to north starts to weaken. I’d bet that later maps would have recurved it offshore the US as ridging would very likely keep pulling out/weaken. Different scenario of many possibilities.
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Move to banter if appropriate ... but sounds much like a US Senate committee hearing ... LOL
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Actually, Larry, watching tropics here with interest ... not up to prognosticating, but am up to say ... "Oh, possible "poop" " ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Move to banter if appropriate ... but sounds much like a US Senate committee hearing ... LOL
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Actually, Larry, watching tropics here with interest ... not up to prognosticating, but am up to say ... "Oh, possible "poop" " ... :eek:
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Hahaha....hopefully in the end we find both with unnecessary drama. :)
 
The 12Z EPS is more active than the prior run and is a huge mess with numerous members with TCs, many of which are Hs, hitting the CONUS TX-NC 10/9-13+.
 
12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 Hs that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases from overland.
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 Hs that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases from overland.
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'Tis the season ... :mad:
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Larry,
Can you toss up a couple maps ... just in time for Sunday dinner? ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Going in to Wiki right this moment!
Thanks!!!!
BTW ...
View attachment 6612
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Not to add to the fire as it is, but... toss this run it's the 18Z.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png
 
I would give a 95% chance of landfall in the US if a TC ends up right east of FL. If it goes OTS we will all be rejoicing due to the beat down of the ridge. Ive about given up hope of that.
 
18z FV3.....same general direction, Georgia/Carolinas, but doesn't spin it up. Sits for a couple of days.
 

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Looks like the feature disappears or is much weaker and further south on the 0z gfs/fv3. Thoughts ?
 
WeatherLC said:
Looks like the feature disappears or is much weaker and further south on the 0z gfs/fv3. Thoughts ?
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At 06Z it's back... all models still show something coming out of the Caribbean but they will be all over the place until something actually develops, then and only then will we have some idea (although as we've seen only a vague idea) of what may or may not happen. One thing appears certain pressure will be falling that region and it certainly looks primed for something to develop but beyond that is anybody's guess.
 
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The GFS tries to get something going but all over the place and fwiw the NAVGEM has a system as well
 
Wow! FV3! I will do a couple of posts as it runs through the Florida and up the east coast!Screenshot_20181001-145539.jpg
 
Yeah, given how far out it is, is there even something specific to be looking for that's out there now that could spin up?

Hmm, I suppose I'll look and see what's up.

Edit: looks like it'd spin up out of the gulf if it were anything.
 
Yep and obviously I don't have to tell you Phil I'm sure this is why you posted that image, but persistent thunderstorms in that region has been the breeding ground for many of tropical Cyclones over the years.
Henry2326 said:
Yup....origin for all models....they agree on something. :) lol
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This may end up being fairly messy with the upper low from near leslie moving west southwest and possibly numerous vorticity centers in the Caribbean competing for dominance. The overall better environment for development might be as any system moves into the Bahamas

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SD said:
This may end up being fairly messy with the upper low from near leslie moving west southwest and possibly numerous vorticity centers in the Caribbean competing for dominance. The overall better environment for development might be as any system moves into the Bahamas

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This article is dated Oct 24, 2017. Its about a possible storm in the western Caribbean. Quote "the track forecast is a mess". :)
Cool map...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-one-soon-could-form/?utm_term=.daeb2a61de1f

Developed into tropical storm Phillippe.....topped out at 60 mph, 991 pressure.
From our origination zone....
Screenshot_20181001-194316.jpg
 
We have to be prepared for extreme weather even in it's long duration winterstorms/hurricanes.
 
guess its time to start watching the tropics again, I really zoned out after Florence

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Crazy to think about, but we have 2 category 5s in the pacific right now, and one is headed due north.
Brent said:
guess its time to start watching the tropics again, I really zoned out after Florence

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
Yeah with this system, the models seem split on how they want to take the low. The NAVGEM and CMC go for the gulf and the NAVGEM is quite scary for what it shows. The others develop a system and hook it into the coast of FL or GA, except for the FV3 which seems to like the idea of beating up Florida and S GA by crossing over into the Gulf, then back inland.
 
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