After not having much on the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS along with the operational are back to what had been showing up on multiple runs mid to late last week meaning ~20% of the EPS members in addition to the operational showing a genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR. The members' TCs stay small with ~3 of them becoming a small H. Most either dissipate or recurve before 50W though one makes it intact just past 60W on 9/8 before dissipating NE of the Caribbean. So, as far as the W basin is concerned, the model based suggestion is that this is likely to not end up being much of a threat should it form though we'd have to see as we get closer to potential development
However, follow-up waves are also showing some geneses between 9/5 and 9/10 in the E MDR. Those are way too far out in time to speculate on right now. But if there were to be multiple TCs to form in the E MDR 9/1-10, it wouldn't be outside of climo norms even in an assumed oncoming weak El Nino for one to at least threaten the W basin as we head toward mid-Sep. though I'm not predicting that.
In the W basin, the 12Z EPS has a few TC geneses in the GOM and off the SE US coast 9/5-8. Something like that would probably end up being the greater threat for obvious reasons.
