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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

SD said:
Eps agrees with the operational with 3 storms in the Atlantic. Other than the one east of PR now the middle system in this image concerns me the most. That weakness in the Atlantic may kick out and it have a long west track
0b3827471eeff150019e7134dd08a4cf.jpg


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Yeah I saw a few EPS members showing a major hurricane on that one in the middle near or north of Puerto Rico in about 12-14 days time.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I saw a few EPS members showing a major hurricane on that one in the middle near or north of Puerto Rico in about 12-14 days time.
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I was looking at the cpc analogs a few days ago and they had some years with close NC hits like 95 with felix or direct hits like 2003 isabel and 96 fran. It looks like the 12z gefs backed off of those years minus 95 and added some 2005 days. I hope that the central Atlantic escape route the models are showing verifies but I have concerns. The setup right now as a whole favors subtropical ridging which could easily push something toward the SE coast

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SD said:
To be honest it's not incredibly shocking to see a big burst of activity. Atlantic sst have warmed and the wave train from Africa is getting highly active.

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To add to your point, most of the Gulf of Mexico is at or above 90 on SST’s
 
Tarheel1 said:
To add to your point, most of the Gulf of Mexico is at or above 90 on SST’s
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Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
 
GaWx said:
Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
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They showed one on TWC and said the whole Gulf was 90 degrees!? I guess I should check my sources!:(:mad:
 
GaWx said:
Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
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TCHP is decent across the GOM although the Caribbean is boiling.

2018239go.jpg
 
Arcc said:
TCHP is decent across the GOM although the Caribbean is boiling.
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The Caribbean is always like that its amazing... and really nothing has tapped it lately, that's how Wilma broke records in 2005

Irma last year didn't even touch the best heat content and look what it did
 
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Euro again develops the Gulf storm around the Florida Peninsula Monday/Tuesday and comes off near Tampa

GFS had nothing in the Gulf but a wave

They both agree on quickly developing Florence out by Africa by this weekend though

Euro is a lot weaker and further NE than last night though... 1005 mb near Pensacola at 192
 
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GaWx said:
It is interesting to see that while the W Caribbean has the warmest TCHP of the Atlantic basin, the Gulf SSTs (mainly 86-88 F) are currently averaging about 2 F warmer than the W Caribbean SSTs (mainly 84-86).
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That’s because the depth of the warmer water is higher in the Caribbean.


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BHS1975 said:
That’s because the depth of the warmer water is higher in the Caribbean.
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BHS,
Thanks. I figured that but I still thought that it was interesting. I’m guessing the W Caribbean usually or perhaps almost always is warmer at depth because it is further south and doesn’t get exposed to the cold air intrusions of winter like the GOM does and also has a higher sun angle during all but near the summer solstice, when it becomes near the same. And perhaps the hot US summer as well as mostly untouched GOM allowed surface temps to temporarily warm above that of the W Caribbean.
 
The wave right behind the one in question over the Antilles also is being picked up by the ECMWF around day 9 as it heads towards the SE US coast, development of this feature seems less likely given it'll be sheared by the other storm in the Gulf but who knows, it's early September so anything can happen.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_10.png
 
There’s a new tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific that poses a threat to Hawaii.
 
All in for watching the next couple of weeks with possible storms to track. I will have sweaty palms and grey hair by the time 9/15 gets here. That is the day the wife and I head to Panama City Beach for our annual "by ourselves" vacation. Looks like we could have unwanted company in the area. Maybe we can get some troughyness into the SE by then and keep the gulf clear.
 
This is one of the most aggressive NHC intensity forecasts I've seen in a little while, this is for Tropical Storm Norman in the East Pacific, which may become a category 4 hurricane in the next few days. Really hope it misses Hawaii.
INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
 
Our wave over far western Africa certainly has a good shot to become our first legitimate Cape Verde storm of the hurricane season, more will probably follow.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Our wave over far western Africa certainly has a good shot to become our first legitimate Cape Verde storm of the hurricane season, more will probably follow.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Next invest soon?
 
By day 5 on this Euro run, our tropical wave over the Antilles begins to consolidate as it approaches Florida around Labor Day, our X'd area of interest in West Africa is intensifying over the open Atlantic, and another wave is coming right on its heels.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png
 
Euro way weaker with the Gulf storm now. Has gotten weaker and weaker since the hurricane run Monday Night. SE of New Orleans/south of AL/FL at 168 but very weak

1011 near New Orleans at 192
 
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The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posing the image. Yeah, this 12Z EPS has just about as many TCs but they're mainly TDs/far fewer blues (TSs)/sub 999s. However, this 12Z EPS has one H a cat 2 hitting TX. I didn't see any cat Hs on the 0Z or any earlier EPS run fwiw.
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For all this one person cares, they can all ignite ... like a wet ladyfinger ... ;)
 
if it makes it all the way to Texas I do wonder if it could be pretty strong though... I mean unless shear is unfavorable??? that's several days over water

further east would definitely be on the weaker side probably
 
Anything "major" for now looks like it's headed to Heathrow; anything local looks like a nice breezy little rainstorm ... can sleep well tonight with that ... but then, there's tomorrow's runs ...

basin_wind_ecmf_gen_atl_2018082912.png

(for a secondary source, go to Wiki>Tropical>Models and look at the FSU models ...)
 
The 2nd or 3rd wave coming off Africa behind the one the NHC x'd are likely the ones to watch in the longer term. There were quite a few EPS members (yet again) w/ intense or very intense hurricanes north of the Greater Antilles and/or in the central Atlantic as we got past day 10. Yeah, that's a long ways out but it will be virtually the climatological peak of the season by then so it's worth watching anyway even from a climatological standpoint, because crappy years can still produce big dogs during September.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 2nd or 3rd wave coming off Africa behind the one the NHC x'd are likely the ones to watch in the longer term. There were quite a few EPS members (yet again) w/ intense or very intense hurricanes north of the Greater Antilles and/or in the central Atlantic as we got past day 10. Yeah, that's a long ways out but it will be virtually the climatological peak of the season by then so it's worth watching anyway even from a climatological standpoint, because crappy years can still produce big dogs during September.
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Webb, just sayin' ... nothing crappy if we don't have to watch it up close and in person this year ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Webb, just sayin' ... nothing crappy if we don't have to watch it up close and in person this year ... ;)
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definitely think residents in southeast Texas, south Florida, and Puerto Rico would concur. Amazed we had 3 category 4-5 hurricanes (Irma, Jose, and Maria) all pass in the climatological sweet spot near and north of PR for a big NC hit and we came away completely unscathed, if it wasn't for Jose lingering around off the east coast, it seems at least probable that NC, SC, GA, or FL would have taken a hit from hurricane Maria because Jose is the only reason it escaped out to sea.
 
Webberweather53 said:
definitely think residents in southeast Texas, south Florida, and Puerto Rico would concur. Amazed we had 3 category 4-5 hurricanes (Irma, Jose, and Maria) all pass in the climatological sweet spot near and north of PR for a big NC hit and we came away completely unscathed, if it wasn't for Jose lingering around off the east coast, it seems at least probable that NC, SC, GA, or FL would have taken a hit from hurricane Maria because Jose is the only reason it escaped out to sea.
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Always enjoy talkin' with you ... :D

1 place you missed, though ... NE FL and up the GA coast ... ;)
 
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