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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

starting to see more agreement on Lane possibly getting really close to Hawaii by Thursday and Friday, some even have a hard turn directly into the state sort of like Iniki in 1992
 
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
 
Brent said:
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
Click to expand...

So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
 
GaWx said:
So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
Click to expand...

Yeah i still expect the Atlantic to have an active spell eventually(plenty of signals for September) but that seems to be ringing true otherwise
 
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
 
Brent said:
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
Click to expand...
Hawaii only has ever had 2 hurricane landfalls in recorded history: one being an unknown category 3 in 1871 and another being Iniki in 1992. This will be number 3 if it makes landfall as a strong hurricane.
 
Brent said:
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
Click to expand...

GFS hasn't been perfect but it's clearly been superior to the Euro with the track for Lane. It has been consistently north of the Euro and locked onto a Hawaii threat well before the Euro ever did, in fact the Euro only locked on to Hawaii last night. With both the GFS and Euro now showing a hit and potential landfall only a few days away, it's definitely not looking good for Hawaii.

The only hope for Hawaii is that a combination of the shear and terrain disrupting the info of Lane will weaken it as it approaches. This is quite possible but not something models will be able to resolve very well. I hope people there are prepared and not taking it lightly.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s a beast for sure !!! Wonder if the Atlantic will ever wake up
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Well, it looks like you finally woke up, Charlie. ;)

Per the 12Z Euro/EPS, the Atlantic MAY finally wake back up in the MDR as ~10-11 of the ~50 EPS members (~20%) have a TC genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR similar to what the 12Z operational Euro shows. They then move W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses later go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.
 
Latest recon pass has MSLP at 930MB. Dropsonde looks to have messed up before hitting the surface.
recon_AF306-0914E-LANE_dropsonde12_20180821-2240.png
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Latest recon pass has MSLP at 930MB. Dropsonde looks to have messed up before hitting the surface.
View attachment 5657
Click to expand...
Those are some crazy winds up in there. Close to 200 mph in the upper levels. I would hate to be on top of the mountains on the Big Island if Lane comes barreling into it. Probably going to be 150 mph gusts up there.
 
CPHC goes with 929MB MSLP and stays with 155 mph surface winds with 2PM HST update.
 
GaWx said:
Well, it looks like you finally woke up, Charlie. ;)

Per the 12Z Euro/EPS, the Atlantic MAY finally wake back up in the MDR as ~10-11 of the ~50 EPS members (~20%) have a TC genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR similar to what the 12Z operational Euro shows. They then move W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses later go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.
Click to expand...
Yep. Looks like the Atlantic may fire a few storms up soon. No way we make it out of the season with 5 storms. The CMC has one developing as soon as 132 hours out so have to keep an eye on it, while the GFS takes it way into fantasyland for up to 3 lows.
gem_z850_vort_atl_23.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_51.png
 
Lane is likely a Cat 5 per recon

CPHC still keeping it at 155 mph just short for now
 
WOW
Brent said:
Special advisory now Cat 5
Click to expand...
At 630 PM HST (0430 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
NOAA aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.0 West. Lane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest
on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move
very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday
through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).
 
and now today recon is evacuating Hawaii because well, there's nowhere else to go... :confused:

in Atlantic news there's a circle in the Eastern Atlantic!!!

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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