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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

starting to see more agreement on Lane possibly getting really close to Hawaii by Thursday and Friday, some even have a hard turn directly into the state sort of like Iniki in 1992
 
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
 
Brent said:
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
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So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
 
GaWx said:
So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
Click to expand...

Yeah i still expect the Atlantic to have an active spell eventually(plenty of signals for September) but that seems to be ringing true otherwise
 
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
 
Brent said:
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
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Hawaii only has ever had 2 hurricane landfalls in recorded history: one being an unknown category 3 in 1871 and another being Iniki in 1992. This will be number 3 if it makes landfall as a strong hurricane.
 
Brent said:
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
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GFS hasn't been perfect but it's clearly been superior to the Euro with the track for Lane. It has been consistently north of the Euro and locked onto a Hawaii threat well before the Euro ever did, in fact the Euro only locked on to Hawaii last night. With both the GFS and Euro now showing a hit and potential landfall only a few days away, it's definitely not looking good for Hawaii.

The only hope for Hawaii is that a combination of the shear and terrain disrupting the info of Lane will weaken it as it approaches. This is quite possible but not something models will be able to resolve very well. I hope people there are prepared and not taking it lightly.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s a beast for sure !!! Wonder if the Atlantic will ever wake up
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Well, it looks like you finally woke up, Charlie. ;)

Per the 12Z Euro/EPS, the Atlantic MAY finally wake back up in the MDR as ~10-11 of the ~50 EPS members (~20%) have a TC genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR similar to what the 12Z operational Euro shows. They then move W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses later go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.
 
Latest recon pass has MSLP at 930MB. Dropsonde looks to have messed up before hitting the surface.
recon_AF306-0914E-LANE_dropsonde12_20180821-2240.png
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Latest recon pass has MSLP at 930MB. Dropsonde looks to have messed up before hitting the surface.
View attachment 5657
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Those are some crazy winds up in there. Close to 200 mph in the upper levels. I would hate to be on top of the mountains on the Big Island if Lane comes barreling into it. Probably going to be 150 mph gusts up there.
 
CPHC goes with 929MB MSLP and stays with 155 mph surface winds with 2PM HST update.
 
GaWx said:
Well, it looks like you finally woke up, Charlie. ;)

Per the 12Z Euro/EPS, the Atlantic MAY finally wake back up in the MDR as ~10-11 of the ~50 EPS members (~20%) have a TC genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR similar to what the 12Z operational Euro shows. They then move W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses later go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.
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Yep. Looks like the Atlantic may fire a few storms up soon. No way we make it out of the season with 5 storms. The CMC has one developing as soon as 132 hours out so have to keep an eye on it, while the GFS takes it way into fantasyland for up to 3 lows.
gem_z850_vort_atl_23.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_51.png
 
Lane is likely a Cat 5 per recon

CPHC still keeping it at 155 mph just short for now
 
WOW
Brent said:
Special advisory now Cat 5
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At 630 PM HST (0430 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
NOAA aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.0 West. Lane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest
on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move
very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday
through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).
 
and now today recon is evacuating Hawaii because well, there's nowhere else to go... :confused:

in Atlantic news there's a circle in the Eastern Atlantic!!!

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Brent said:
and now today recon is evacuating Hawaii because well, there's nowhere else to go... :confused:

in Atlantic news there's a circle in the Eastern Atlantic!!!

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
That's the swirl the CMC has been picking up on. Seems to be uncertain as to where it will go but latest run has it just swirling off of Africa and dying out.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's the swirl the CMC has been picking up on. Seems to be uncertain as to where it will go but latest run has it just swirling off of Africa and dying out.
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Dunno if its this one or the next one but the ensembles are liking something further west

Sooner or later something is coming
 
Something surely looks a tad bit ominous in west Africa (but caveat - it's not the 1st time this season we've seen a hefty wave over land, but then again, it is getting later in the season so more likelihood of something spinning up, of course); and the models are showing an increased chance of precip coming off the coast ... ergo, something to watch ... as well as shear not being too hostile on the front end ... we'll see ...

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif gth_full.png wg8shr.GIF
 
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^^^
...
as well as shear tendency not being too hostile either, together with current steering being a bit conducive; it's interesting looking at all of those in tandem ... we'll see ...

wg8sht.GIF


wg8dlm5-1.GIF

So bottom line (IMHO) ... if (if, if) that wave gets off the coast and holds together (unlike the prior ones), it's at least heading into a reasonably good environment, as that environment exists today and looks to for at least a couple more ...
 
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Lane has already brought over a foot of rain to Hawaii causing road closures due to landslides and this is only going to get worse. The track is still crazy uncertain (06z GFS slams it right into the big Island)

Current conditions at the Mauna Kea summit, 38 degrees with 40 mph winds....
 
again the Euro has been a total joke with Lane. GFS has always been the far worse track for Hawaii and its ringing true after the 12z. Now the Euro almost landfalls in Maui before turning west after being way west even last night.
 
CPHC still isn't close to a landfall on the new advisory, heads for Maui then sharp turns away from Oahu(Honolulu) and Kauai
 
Brent said:
CPHC still isn't close to a landfall on the new advisory, heads for Maui then sharp turns away from Oahu(Honolulu) and Kauai
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The current radar seems to be showing Lane moving NW to NNW, I think we can say an actual landfall on any island of Hawaii, is basically 0!
 
Except some models pull it NE into Maui(probably mountain interaction) and they are the stronger models before turning west but who knows

Basically the longer it takes to fall apart the closer to Hawaii landfall it gets

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

izante.jpg
 
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CMC has a storm into South Florida in 9 days from the African wave... Euro shows some energy in the same area at the same time but not as impressed. GFS has something forming near Florida even further out than that.

0z Euro at 240 hours, if that upper air pattern verifies anything that forms would head for Florida, has a lot of energy approaching from the African wave
 
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Today’s 12Z Euro is like the 5th run in a row to have a surface low to form in the far E MDR near 9/1. The EPS has also been showing this with about 20% of the 51 members for several days of runs having an actual TC genesis shortly after. Something to monitor but hoping any formation would later safely recurve, which is the climo most likely thing especially in El Niño or pre-El Niño seasons. Also, there’d be hope it would later dissipate over open waters if it doesn’t recurve safely.
The 12Z EPS has only modest support for this with only about 7 of the 51 members having a TC and 2 or so becoming a H.
 
Wow Lane is dying in a hurry near Hawaii

Hard pressed to call it a hurricane actually its hard to find a center at all
 
Brent said:
Wow Lane is dying in a hurry near Hawaii

Hard pressed to call it a hurricane actually its hard to find a center at all
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Yeah, just a blob of convection, and week at that. Rain seem to still be the big issue, with a lot of places getting 5-10” more between now and Sunday
 
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