I know it is expected to get very hot there but 107 in Providence?!?! Their alltime record is “only” 104, which was on 8/2/1975. This has to be a result of the gfs doing its tricks with its extra hot pockets in cities.
The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.
This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
Hawaii only has ever had 2 hurricane landfalls in recorded history: one being an unknown category 3 in 1871 and another being Iniki in 1992. This will be number 3 if it makes landfall as a strong hurricane.
GFS hasn't been perfect but it's clearly been superior to the Euro with the track for Lane. It has been consistently north of the Euro and locked onto a Hawaii threat well before the Euro ever did, in fact the Euro only locked on to Hawaii last night. With both the GFS and Euro now showing a hit and potential landfall only a few days away, it's definitely not looking good for Hawaii.
The only hope for Hawaii is that a combination of the shear and terrain disrupting the info of Lane will weaken it as it approaches. This is quite possible but not something models will be able to resolve very well. I hope people there are prepared and not taking it lightly.