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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018 (1 Viewer)

GaWx

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#64
The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.

This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
 

pcbjr

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#66
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

two_atl_2d0.png

... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
 
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#67
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

View attachment 5412

... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
I think it’s up to 30% the next 3 days now!?
 
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#74
I'm giving it about 3 weeks, still think we'll have something towards late August and Labor Day(although I'm not expecting anything on the scale of last year)

Main story this coming week looks to be the possibility of Hector in the EPAC getting close to Hawaii next week.
 

ForsythSnow

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#75
It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
 

SD

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#77
Praying that activity continues to fall apart coming off of Africa ...

View attachment 5597
We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

pcbjr

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#78
We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Nothing to suggest anything worrisome, yet, in any event ...

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wg8shr.GIF

wg8vor.GIF

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

irmet7kml.GIF
 
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#79
GFS starting to look interesting in the LR out towards Africa

It's pretty much if its gonna start it'll be in the next couple weeks

we are getting close to when Harvey formed a year ago
 
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#81
starting to see more agreement on Lane possibly getting really close to Hawaii by Thursday and Friday, some even have a hard turn directly into the state sort of like Iniki in 1992
 
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#83
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
 

GaWx

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#84
In Atlantic news the Euro has a system moving into the Caribbean at day 10

Lane is looking more and more like a serious threat to Hawaii too
So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
 
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#85
So far the May-July Eurosip forecasts for ASO of a quiet Atlantic tropics and much higher than normal threat to Hawaii are looking superb!
Yeah i still expect the Atlantic to have an active spell eventually(plenty of signals for September) but that seems to be ringing true otherwise
 
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#86
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
 

ForsythSnow

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#87
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
Hawaii only has ever had 2 hurricane landfalls in recorded history: one being an unknown category 3 in 1871 and another being Iniki in 1992. This will be number 3 if it makes landfall as a strong hurricane.
 
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#88
The Euro has caved to the GFS and has Lane hitting Honolulu(it had been well south of Hawaii in previous runs)

:confused:

I don't think there's been a hurricane strike on Hawaii east of Kauai before
GFS hasn't been perfect but it's clearly been superior to the Euro with the track for Lane. It has been consistently north of the Euro and locked onto a Hawaii threat well before the Euro ever did, in fact the Euro only locked on to Hawaii last night. With both the GFS and Euro now showing a hit and potential landfall only a few days away, it's definitely not looking good for Hawaii.

The only hope for Hawaii is that a combination of the shear and terrain disrupting the info of Lane will weaken it as it approaches. This is quite possible but not something models will be able to resolve very well. I hope people there are prepared and not taking it lightly.
 

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