• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

GFS is showing signs of something in the Gulf out beyond 300 hours, very far out, but we'll see what happens

One run today has gone towards Louisiana the 0z goes towards Northern Mexico
 
Gfs still showing a Tropical feature for a few runs now
 
# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses on record 1851-2017: mid-June climo much more active vs May and most active of any through 8/31

May 1-10: 2
May 11-20: 4
May 21-31: 5
June 1-10: 16
June 11-20: 26
June 21-30: 25
July 1-10: 13
July 11-20: 8
July 21-31: 18
Aug 1-10: 23
Aug 11-20: 25
Aug 21-31: 22

So, in mid June, alone, there have been 26 geneses in 167 years or one every 6-7 years averaged out in a fairly small area/over 5 times the rate of late May. That's a steep enough ramp up and high enough ratio to take seriously if there were to be model consensus for genesis there once we get within 10 days. But we're obviously not to that point yet.
 
Only my luck. Im going on a carribbean cruise june 11 and gfs is hell bent on bring a tropical system in the same time frame
 
It has differed in strength and direction of travel, but Goofy has been consistent about it occurring, much like it did with Alberto. I like trop storms coming up by me, as it keeps the summer cool.....as long as they stay weak, lol. Picked up another 5/8's over night and this morning. I'm up to 8 3/4's since mid May, so any trop moisture will only add to my accumulating water wealth, and I'm very receptive to it :) Showers everyday in summer remind me of my youth, when it seemed normal ....drought reminds me of my old age, and I've seen way too much drought since the early 80's! I like the return to the standard of my youth.
 
After holding onto a genesis date of 6/10 on about every run for several days, the GFS genesis date has finally started to slip. Also, the last several GEFS since 18Z have looked a bit less impressive. The GFS suite may be saying it is about to give up on this one, but there's still 6 days til 6/10. Note that the Euro/EPS still has essentially nothing.
 
The 12Z GEFS is strongly hinting at giving up the ghost as it has the least of any recent GEFS run on 6/10. Also, the 12Z GFS has nothing of note throughout the run.

Even JB is doubting genesis anytime soon.

Edit: Similar to recent Euro runs, today's 12Z Euro has nothing.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is strongly hinting at giving up the ghost as it has the least of any recent GEFS run on 6/10. Also, the 12Z GFS has nothing of note throughout the run.

Even JB is doubting genesis anytime soon.

Edit: Similar to recent Euro runs, today's 12Z Euro has nothing.
Click to expand...
With the potential cold fronts stalling off of the SE coast or in the gulf I wouldn't be shocked to see something try to spin up but the low dewpoints behind the fronts may keep genesis at bay

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Gulf system little stronger 6z gfs this morning
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png
0z gfs is back with the storm. Worth watching
 
0z gfs/CMC has a pretty strong storm in the gulf
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top