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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

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gfs east again
 
A little worrisome that the Euro has basically nothing at all in the gulf. We will see if GFS is still king!?
 
SD said:
I'll take the euro

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The 0Z Euro’s mid 990s mb TC 200 miles SE of the NC OB at hour 156 is almost definitely fake news. This reminds me of that fake cyclone the Euro had earlier this month forming a mere 25 miles offshore the E coast of FL moving south, which I also called fake and was. For one thing, the prior Euro run had nothing of the sort. Also, neither the GFS nor the CMC has anything like that. Furthermore, only 2 other members of the EPS and no members of the last few GEFS had anything of similar strength. I’d be highly surprised if the 12Z Euro has this but we’ll see. This feeling is despite the well above normal SSTs in that area. Climo maps for late June show very little near there by the way.
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z Euro’s mid 990s mb TC 200 miles SE of the NC OB at hour 156 is almost definitely fake news. This reminds me of that fake cyclone the Euro had earlier this month forming a mere 25 miles offshore the E coast of FL moving south, which I also called fake and was. For one thing, the prior Euro run had nothing of the sort. Also, neither the GFS nor the CMC has anything like that. Furthermore, only 2 other members of the EPS and no members of the last few GEFS had anything of similar strength. I’d be highly surprised if the 12Z Euro has this but we’ll see. This feeling is despite the well above normal SSTs in that area. Climo maps for late June show very little near there by the way.
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Fake cyclone on the Euro? I'm surprised that it would be the only one showing such a system. If nothing else gets on board, it's indeed a fake.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Fake cyclone on the Euro? I'm surprised that it would be the only one showing such a system. If nothing else gets on board, it's indeed a fake.
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Yeah, the Euro has them from time to time, including that aforementioned fake TS barely off the E coast of FL. By the way, the 0Z ICON had something similar at hour 126 but the 6Z at hour 120 dropped it. Also, the CMC at 12Z yesterday had something further south but the 0Z dropped that. If this were August or Sept, I might give it a little more credibility. But this is late June, a very quiet time of year there. Climo is always in the back of my mind when analyzing possibilities:

June 21-30 TC tracks since 1851: only one in the last 167 years on record to have formed within 200 miles of where the 0Z Euro has it forming:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_21_30.png
 
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Its fairly unlikely but the closed ridge over new England and exiting mcv at least gives a chance at development off of the SE coast

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SD said:
Its fairly unlikely but the closed ridge over new England and exiting mcv at least gives a chance at development off of the SE coast
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With climo as a tool to give me high confidence that the 0Z Euro is imagining things, I’m currently giving it no more than a 1% chance for there to be a named storm to come out of this. The 12Z GFS doesn’t support it and the 12Z GEFS has zero members out of 21 with an under 1004 mb low off the US E coast through hour 192. So, no support there. The 12Z UKMET has no closed low. The CMC and ICON are back with something at 12Z with a closed low forming near the upper SC coast at hour 72. However, it forming right near the coast looks suspicious and the ICON has yet to impress me in the tropics. I know Forsyth kind of likes it more now, but the CMC isn’t the best model. The 12Z CMC ensembles have zero members of 21 with a low having lower than 1004 mb strength off the SE coast through hour 192+. Let’s see if the 12Z Euro holds onto it. Even if it does, I won’t be buying it yet, if ever.
 
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Though surprising to me that the Euro still has something similar at 12Z, I’m still discounting it as it develops a closed surface low (from a meso complex?) over land in S NC that then moves offshore and strengthens. If this were a frontal related meso-scale low over land in August or maybe even in July progged to move offshore and develop (similar to what happened in 1983 with Alicia in the N Gulf) and it ALSO had support from the UKMET, the GFS, and the GEFS, I might give it a decent chance. But this is the present day Euro, which has its quirks with development over land or just offshore like it did over TX recently as well as barely offshore E FL recently. Furthermore, it has support only from the on again ICON and CMC. So, I’m sticking with this being a fake TC and still with high confidence for at least now knowing climo back to 1851 is mainly on my side.
 
GaWx said:
Though surprising to me that the Euro still has something similar at 12Z, I’m still discounting it as it develops a closed surface low (from a meso complex?) over land in S NC that then moves offshore and strengthens. If this were a frontal related meso-scale low over land in August or maybe even in July progged to move offshore and develop (similar to what happened in 1983 with Alicia in the N Gulf) and it ALSO had support from the UKMET, the GFS, and the GEFS, I might give it a decent chance. But this is the present day Euro, which has its quirks with development over land or just offshore like it did over TX recently as well as barely offshore E FL recently. Furthermore, it has support only from the on again ICON and CMC. So, I’m sticking with this being a fake TC and still with high confidence for at least now knowing climo back to 1851 is mainly on my side.
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The whole set up favors nothing ... give it until after the 15th ... IMHO
 
pcbjr said:
The whole set up favors nothing ... give it until after the 15th ... IMHO
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Welcome back from your hiatus!

The 12Z EPS has more members (about 10 of 50) than the only a couple of the 0Z EPS with a low of 1004 mb or stronger off the E coast of the US with almost all of them moving NE paralleling the coast similar to the operational Euro. Though that’s interesting, I still don’t think there will be a TC coming out of this.
 
GaWx said:
Welcome back from your hiatus!

The 12Z EPS has more members (about 10 of 50) than the only a couple of the 0Z EPS with a low of 1004 mb or stronger off the E coast of the US with almost all of them moving NE paralleling the coast similar to the operational Euro. Though that’s interesting, I still don’t think there will be a TC coming out of this.
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Larry,
That's 20% ... LOL ... and some above 1000 mb ... 2X LOL
What's important is the long range dynamics, and "I" could well be completely wrong (surely wouldn't be the 1st time), but there is very little to suggest any formation of anything but a rainstorm of sorts ...
Yet, "I'm" still in for 2 named storms in July (just not in the early part of the month) ...
Just a very small sampling of my reasoning here ...
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BTW - "hiatus" is a kind word ...
Best as always!
 
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0z Euro has a TS near Cape Cod in a mere 96 hours o_O

It is weaker than previous runs though(and much closer to the US in general)
 
whamby said:
tee hee, the GFS has 107 in Providence, RI at 186:
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I know it is expected to get very hot there but 107 in Providence?!?! Their alltime record is “only” 104, which was on 8/2/1975. This has to be a result of the gfs doing its tricks with its extra hot pockets in cities.
 
The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.

This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
 
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

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... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
 
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pcbjr said:
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

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... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
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I think it’s up to 30% the next 3 days now!?
 
That wave off Africa sure looks good(is 95L now not sure what happened to 92, 93, and 94L?)

Hostile road ahead though
 
I'm giving it about 3 weeks, still think we'll have something towards late August and Labor Day(although I'm not expecting anything on the scale of last year)

Main story this coming week looks to be the possibility of Hector in the EPAC getting close to Hawaii next week.
 
It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
 
pcbjr said:
Praying that activity continues to fall apart coming off of Africa ...

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We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

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SD said:
We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

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Nothing to suggest anything worrisome, yet, in any event ...

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GFS starting to look interesting in the LR out towards Africa

It's pretty much if its gonna start it'll be in the next couple weeks

we are getting close to when Harvey formed a year ago
 
Maybe it isn't the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been really active and Hawaii could be looking at a hit by Lane unless it goes further south like Hector did a week ago.
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