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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

SD said:
Just east of HSE let the NE hit hysteria begin

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With the upper level features the 12z Euro paints I don't see Florence making a sharp turn up north. I think with all the ridging the Southeast could be at risk. N FL and Carolinas.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
With the upper level features the 12z Euro paints I don't see Florence making a sharp turn up north. I think with all the ridging the Southeast could be at risk. N FL and Carolinas.
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I'm not sure. Ridge is centered near bermuda which would support a northward turn as it approaches the coast. All things considered though its certainly a threat and any changes in the orientation of troughing/ridging, the fate of 91L, and the shortwave zipping through the NE will have an impact on Florence

1995 has been popping up on the cpc analogs for days and we may be looking at a stair step type track like felix

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Arcc said:
That pattern will be a conveyor belt.
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SD said:
Yeah at d10 the euro has 4 systems with a potential 5th

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The train is hooking up and getting ready to leave the station.

tenor.gif
 
EPS trends over past 48 hours through day 10. I can't find a hurricane/TS that hit land from where Florence sits. Hurricane Isabel would be somewhat close I guess.

EPSTrends.gif
 
412
WTNT31 KNHC 022033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 34.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday with a gradual decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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671
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence's cloud pattern is characterized by a low-level center
partially displaced to the west of the coldest cloud tops, which
have expanded in coverage recently. A blend of the latest satellite
classifications supports maintaining an intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory package. Little change in strength is expected for much of
the forecast period, as Florence will be moving through an
environment characterized by moderate shear and marginal SSTs for
the next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, the SSTs begin
to warm up, which should result in some restrengthening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is closest to
the SHIPS model forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/15. Florence will be steered
west-northwestward or westward for the next several days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of north-south
spread in the guidance, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF on
the right side of the envelope and the ECMWF, ECMWF mean and UKMET
on the left. This spread is likely due to large differences in the
vertical structure of the cyclone, with the ECMWF and UKMET having a
much weaker vortex at 500 mb compared to the GFS in 3-4 days. Given
the difficulty in forecasting these types of structural changes,
the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
close to the multi-model consensus aids through the forecast period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Kylo said:
EPS trends over past 48 hours through day 10. I can't find a hurricane/TS that hit land from where Florence sits. Hurricane Isabel would be somewhat close I guess.

View attachment 5804
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It would be an extreme rarity, indeed, and therefore, the betting odds from that position (that far north that far east) would normally be very heavily against a US landfall. However, Irma was in almost the identical position at ~17.5 N, 35 W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.png
 
Also, the remnants of Fred of 2009 made it all the way to the SE coast Sept. 21 (I was there and lived to tell about it), and he was in a similar position to Florence and Irma near 17.5N, 35W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2009.png

Other than Fred and Irma, I may not find another that far north (17.5N) at 35W that hit the US, but I'll keep looking. In the meantime, devastating to GA/SC #6 of 1893 was not too far south of 17.5 as it was near 16.5N at 35W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png
 
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