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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

snowlover91 said:
Do you think the GFS orientation of the ridge is in error here? I would think climo and the pattern we've seen recently would argue for a stronger ridge oriented more like the Euro/CMC show vs the GFS.
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Yeah the GFS is likely breaking the ridge down too quickly here as usual and part of that is related to overdeepening which is due largely to its lack of ocean coupling.
 
Arcc said:
Yes, but with the shear aloft you should be seeing explosive convection, just off to the NE. However you aren't just still warming cloud tops suggesting lots of dry air entrained as well.
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Yeah you can see some arc clouds that have been spit out throughout the day to the west of the center. It will take her awhile to recover for sure. Honestly I'm surprised NHC is keeping this a cane, satellite estimates are indicating we probably have a TS now.
 
18z BEST track is down to 75 KT (85 MPH) for Florence, the 5pm advisory may knock this down another 5 KTS or so given its rapidly degrading satellite presentation.
AL, 06, 2018090618, , BEST, 0, 248N, 492W, 75, 985, HU
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah you can see some arc clouds that have been spit out throughout the day to the west of the center. It will take her awhile to recover for sure. Honestly I'm surprised NHC is keeping this a cane, satellite estimates are indicating we probably have a TS now.
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I'm not sure it'll take forever for it to recover. Give it 2 days in the favorable environment and it'll be a cat 3 or 4 again in no time. I agree though it's a TS at this point despite what the other estimates have it. You can see how fast it blew up and how fast it weakened on this graph.
06LP.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not sure it'll take forever for it to recover. Give it 2 days in the favorable environment and it'll be a cat 3 or 4 again in no time. I agree though it's a TS at this point despite what the other estimates have it. You can see how fast it blew up and how fast it weakened on this graph.
06LP.GIF
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I think the biggest question if it survives is how long will it take it to restack. Do doubt she is tilted heavily right now.
 
Arcc said:
I think the biggest question if it survives is how long will it take it to restack. Do doubt she is tilted heavily right now.
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Given it's slowing down, I'm sure no more than a day when it's free of the shear. The turn and shear is only making it harder at the moment but once it's on a clear course and out of the shear it'll reform the center and start building fast again. I'm sure Florence will survive but it could very well be shredded down to a depression in the end.

I just looked at the satellite and I'm not sure, but it looks like the two centers are merging back together now or are on track to be.
 
The latest (12Z) UKMET has continued the N adjustments to reflect on initializations being too far SW and I don't think these adjustments are done yet. Here's why (all times EDT)

- 12Z 9/5 run: had Flo at 24.1N, 51.5W for its 36 hour forecast
- 12Z 9/6 run: initialized Flo at 24.1N, 48.6W or a whopping 3 degrees east adjustment!
- Flo was actually at 24.1N, 47.9W as of 5 AM today, which is a whopping 3.6 degrees or ~225 miles east of where the 12Z 9/5 run had her at 24.1 N!
- So the latest UKMET had Flo initialized at 24.1N, 48.6W as of 8 AM vs the actual of 24.1N, 47.9W at 5 AM and actual of 24.6N, 48.6W at 11 AM with Flo still moving ~WNW/still gaining a little latitude. So, the latest UKMET initialization was still SW of reality. Therefore, I expect at the very least one more decent NE adjustment for the 0Z run tonight.

In reaction to this (domino effect), note how much further north is the latest UKMET when it crosses 60W:
- 12Z 9/5 run: 23.4 N
- 0Z 9/6 run: 24.5 N
- 12Z 9/6 run: 25.9 N
- I expect the 0Z 9/7 run to be even further north when it crosses 60W and the latter part of that track to be even further north than the current run as it gets closer to the CONUS. We'll see tonight if that's right.
- Based on the trend of model consensus, especially the UKMET, I feel the chances of a hit in FL, GA, and lower SC have decreased as of the moment though there obviously still is a chance of a hit there and trends could still change back later.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not sure it'll take forever for it to recover. Give it 2 days in the favorable environment and it'll be a cat 3 or 4 again in no time. I agree though it's a TS at this point despite what the other estimates have it. You can see how fast it blew up and how fast it weakened on this graph.
06LP.GIF
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Yeah I'm thinking 2 days and it should be stacked and well on the way to a major again. Shear is starting to abate some as you can see a few bursts occurring over the center right now in the latest visibles. This looks like it will pass the 50W benchmark around 25N like I mentioned yesterday which was a critical area to see for a potential land threat.
 
snowlover91 said:
@Kylo It doesn't appear to be ramming through the ridge. Notice the orientation of the ridge is NW to SE, the flow aloft moves the storm to the NW and then NNW as it nears the edge of it. The ridge orientation is also why the GFS is further off the coast now, it has a N to S orientation.
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Yes, the Bermuda ridge is strong and helps with the WNW flow but so is the ridge directly north, thus the stall. If these modeled ridges work out I think this may get further west.
 
Nice cluster at day 5 on the EPS, majority haven't crossed 30N. Will be interesting benchmark to track.

EPSTrends.gif
 
In addition to the crazy shear, it was in water temps of upper 70s to low 80s. TWC just showed water temps around and South of Bermuda in the upper 80s!! So that with a very low shear environment after Bermuda, could see some RI as it heads towards land and if moving fast enough, would not weaken much, Hugoish like!
 
One thing that concerns me is the possibility of Florence stalling if she does make landfall. Models are hinting at a breakdown in the steering currents that, if over land, could cause some major flooding issues as well. Something to keep an eye on.
 
Down to 80 mph forecast goes down to 70 before restrengthening

Beyond day 3, the
track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing
evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic. While
all of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the
ridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to
the north of Florida. These differences result in a great deal of
bifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model
ensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such
situations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the
new official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south
towards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA.
 
Storm5 said:
Recon flights begin Monday ...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Gonna be along weekend! Maybe they can go earlier, if models get more consolidated on a US landfall!?
 
the gulfstream(for the models) is going to Hawaii for Olivia too... sigh like it'll be anything when it gets to Hawaii lol

generally though for general recon around 60 W is typical unless it's threatening the Antilles when they can go to St. Croix
 
Kylo said:
Allan's EPS plots show the strongest TC's recurving, which matches up with the GFS. Probably why UK is furthest south, it's the weakest, relative.

DmcAI0KX0AITSwd.jpg:large
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We’re definitely not starting out on the right foot with this storm probably weakening to a tropical storm later tonight, I certainly have some questions about how quickly this can recover if dry air is invested into the core. The fact that Florence is small and will have a warm, moist environment with light shear to intensify in helps but sometimes it can take unusually long for a TC to mix out dry air from its core if entrained anyway & sometimes they don’t ever fully recover. We will have to wait and see but I think Florence will more than likely be fine, this is just worth bringing up because the chance is there that it won’t be in general terms.
 
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Hopefully the recon on Monday will give us a better idea where Florence will go to.
 
The 18Z GFS crossed 60 W way down at 27.5 N vs the prior 3 runs being then near 30N!​
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_14.png
3 Canes at once. You think all 3 of these will set a nice cooler pattern after?
 
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