Kylo
Member
Interesting to see how quickly the heights build as Florence tracks NW.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I think models would re adjust to a track out to sea. As I dont see this storm becoming weak again and missing the weakness.I remember last year with Irma at this range where it was a showing a NC/SC hit and UK was furtherest southwest. It was being discounted because the maps below were showing the OBS north of the modeled track. Irma ended up tracking within the cone below for the most part. If I had any money I would bet on a recurve because this is going to take a really strong ridge to keep this climbing poleward.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty remarkable change in the NHC cone inside day 3 since yesterday w/ Florence.
With the Upper Level Low, And Ridge what could happen to Florence in short term?
Snowflowxxl
Member
This GFS run in a few minuets should be very interesting. Flip a coin type guess right now.
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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That's crazy lol, and I bet there could be a even more of a west shift in the future runs. I can see this getting pretty darn close to the US or a direct hit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Florence has been tracking just north of guidance in the short term of late but it's put enough distance between itself an upper low that a shortwave, small ridge has been allowed to bridge between the two systems and will cause Florence to move back to the WNW or due west for a while on Friday &/or Saturday. Definitely a little concerning to see this trend evolve in the short range.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hugs the coast then slams New England again is my guess.
BHS1975
Member
I wonder if typhoon Jebi has anything to do with the change in track.
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Levi makes a great point here. Further update: she is at 22.0N, 45.7W as of 11AM EDT. That means that a whopping 49 of the 51 members are S of the actual track and Flo is, indeed, north of the 0Z EPS mean guidance. So, this means that PERHAPS the 0Z EPS mean track is too far south. At least that’s what Levi is getting at. Hopefully, Flo will continue to track along the northern edge of this guidance. If this continues, maybe future EPS runs will come back north. However, she being on the north side of the guidance may be temporary. So, I’m not actually calling for this at least yet. Just something to follow.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Anybody notice that Florence gave some portions of the Northeast snow after landfall. That would be pretty crazy. This was on the 6z gfs!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Maybe it's tied to what Webber was just talking about. Might not be wise to call OTS the path we are headed to either as it could be a temporary shift north. We may see it end up on the south side of the guidance in a few days based on that run.
Classic GFS.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Also a major cool blast to the SE in general. I'm fine with it brushing the coast but the NE will be hit by a major Nor'easter per that run and I'm sure they don't want another hurricane up their way. It happened with Sandy on the snow part so I'm sure it could if that happened.
Yep, another variable is what Fred Gossage mentioned to me years ago as well where the hot exhaust outflow from a strong hurricane can actually strengthen the ridge to the north of it. Sometimes I believe they go where they want too.
I agree this could be largely due to wobbling and that she of course could move back down closer to the mean 0Z EPS track. However, I certainly rather she be where she is vs being near the mean or further south. This at least gives a bit more hope that the EPS mean is too far south....maybe. It wouldn’t be wise to make a call one way or the other this early.
This is from a post elsewhere by “Shell Mound”:
“The long-term movement is clearly to the northwest on satellite imagery. Comparison with the 00Z UKMET ensembles shows that Florence is consistently moving to the right of the UKMET in the short term. The WNW movement on the UKMET ensembles clearly isn't happening at this point. Notably, Florence is also persistently to the right of the ECMWF, especially compared to two days ago.”
All things being equal, I’d rather Flo be moving to the right of the UK/Euro than near of to the left of it as far as chances of her missing the US are concerned.
More great stuff from “Shell Mound” elsewhere:
“While I currently expect Florence to curve OTS east of Bermuda, there are some worrying indicators:
*Because Florence has been much more intense than expected, it is certainly farther NE than most of the global models indicated (except the GFS). While this might tend to favour a track OTS, there are some other consequences of this:
**A stronger Florence is a slower Florence. The UKMET and ECMWF have not only been too weak and too far SW with Florence, but also too fast. The GFS has been the slowest and farthest NE, correctly. The last seven runs of the GFS have accurately forecast Florence's intensity and track vs. other models, and worryingly, these last seven runs have shifted Florence farther S by day five (ninety-six hours). That means Florence is going to slow down even more over the next several days. This is bad because:
a) This gives more time for the long-wave trough off the East Coast to miss Florence by days five and six;
b) The TUTT near the Azores retrogrades faster to the SW and is much closer to Florence by then;
c) The feedback -- stronger Florence -> slower Florence -> enhances mid-level shortwave ridging nearby -> misses long-wave trough -> TUTT enhances ridging to the N of the Greater Antilles -> very strong East-Coast ridge extends NE to SW behind long-wave trough -> possibility of Irma- or Ike-like WSW dip for prolonged period of time beyond days five and six
d) If this scenario plays out, it is the second most likely one behind an outright OTS path. IF this happens, then ridging is likely to be sufficiently strong and angled as to drive a very intense Cat-4/5+ Florence WSW, W, and then WNW into FL/eastern Gulf under very favourable outflow conditions (Irma), meaning also lots of ACE build-up and increase in wind field due to some ERCs along the way to FL/Gulf
This looks like all or nothing. If this doesn't curve OTS, we could be looking at something very big and bad for FL and the Gulf.
Oh, and this will likely be a Cat-4 later today...”
“While I currently expect Florence to curve OTS east of Bermuda, there are some worrying indicators:
*Because Florence has been much more intense than expected, it is certainly farther NE than most of the global models indicated (except the GFS). While this might tend to favour a track OTS, there are some other consequences of this:
**A stronger Florence is a slower Florence. The UKMET and ECMWF have not only been too weak and too far SW with Florence, but also too fast. The GFS has been the slowest and farthest NE, correctly. The last seven runs of the GFS have accurately forecast Florence's intensity and track vs. other models, and worryingly, these last seven runs have shifted Florence farther S by day five (ninety-six hours). That means Florence is going to slow down even more over the next several days. This is bad because:
a) This gives more time for the long-wave trough off the East Coast to miss Florence by days five and six;
b) The TUTT near the Azores retrogrades faster to the SW and is much closer to Florence by then;
c) The feedback -- stronger Florence -> slower Florence -> enhances mid-level shortwave ridging nearby -> misses long-wave trough -> TUTT enhances ridging to the N of the Greater Antilles -> very strong East-Coast ridge extends NE to SW behind long-wave trough -> possibility of Irma- or Ike-like WSW dip for prolonged period of time beyond days five and six
d) If this scenario plays out, it is the second most likely one behind an outright OTS path. IF this happens, then ridging is likely to be sufficiently strong and angled as to drive a very intense Cat-4/5+ Florence WSW, W, and then WNW into FL/eastern Gulf under very favourable outflow conditions (Irma), meaning also lots of ACE build-up and increase in wind field due to some ERCs along the way to FL/Gulf
This looks like all or nothing. If this doesn't curve OTS, we could be looking at something very big and bad for FL and the Gulf.
Oh, and this will likely be a Cat-4 later today...”
Snowflowxxl
Member
It’s def a little north of 6z at 114. Let’s see where it goes from here.
From Levi’s Twitter regarding Flo tracking north of the 0Z EPS mean:
“It certainly guarantees nothing. How much it weakens over next few days matters a lot too. But any latitude gains definitely change the probability distribution at the bifurcation point, and are important.”
“It certainly guarantees nothing. How much it weakens over next few days matters a lot too. But any latitude gains definitely change the probability distribution at the bifurcation point, and are important.”