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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Florence is looking better this morning than last night. Looks like it's getting out of the shear later today and per estimates it's no longer weakening. The speed at which it strengthens and gets back to a major hurricane will be crucial to the path as well as the path itself and the ridge strength. Estimates put it at a pathetic 37 knots or a weak TS but the NHC is going for higher values with their recent advisory of 55 knots. I don't like the looks of the models from last night at all and we will have to see what later runs bring.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Florence is looking better this morning than last night. Looks like it's getting out of the shear later today and per estimates it's no longer weakening. The speed at which it strengthens and gets back to a major hurricane will be crucial to the path as well as the path itself and the ridge strength. Estimates put it at a pathetic 37 knots or a weak TS but the NHC is going for higher values with their recent advisory of 55 knots. I don't like the looks of the models from last night at all and we will have to see what later runs bring.
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Models all over the map ... :(

eps_mslp_min_eastcoastus_156.png
 
Even if Florence intensifies more increasing the chance in general this could* OTS, I'm worried the ridge may continue to intensify as we approach verification and steer Florence towards the southeastern US anyway so it would be all for naught. A near 597 dm ridge is already pushing record territory for this time of the year in the western Atlantic...
na_f144.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if Florence intensifies more increasing the chance in general this could* OTS, I'm worried the ridge may continue to intensify as we approach verification and steer Florence towards the southeastern US anyway so it would be all for naught. A near 597 dm ridge is already pushing record territory for this time of the year in the western Atlantic...
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Agree completely, it won't matter how deep Florence becomes, if that ridge continues to trend stronger it cannot go northward that much.
 
Latest plots.
06L_tracks_latest.png
 
I don't have a lot to add that hasn't already been discussed, but I'll comment anyway. I would not throw the recurve scenario in the trash can at this point, but I would definitely bet a modest amount against it. Given the progged ridging and the propensity for strong and sustained ridging of late, I don't see an easy escape for Florence. Even though she is approaching from an unusual spot (which historically is unfavorable for a US impact), the odds are high, IMO, of a strike or at least very close pass. As already noted above, low shear, warm SSTs, and lack of dry air will provide an adequate environment for strengthening up until landfall. The one saving grace *may* be a weakened steering current as she approaches land, perhaps causing a stall or slow-down just enough to give a trough a chance to kick her out. My suspicion is though, that an upper FL to NC strike is what lies ahead. And she should be quite strong.
 
Latest satellite estimate has this still near 25N although it's a bit difficult to tell with the disorganized nature of things. Interestingly the CMC takes this WSW for an extended period of time down to near 24N over the next few days but still hits NC so that will be something to watch as well.
06L.GIF
 
Will that low off the coast have any effect on Flo path?
 
Arcc said:
Dry air is still plaguing Florence and this throws another variable in the forecast. The models have always had issues resolving when dry air will be worked out.
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With shear apparently decreasing, I would expect Florence works that dry air out and establishes her core again within the next 24-36 hours. That will definitely play a role in the track depending upon how quickly she starts intensifying and how strong she gets when she does. IMO there is a legit shot for her to become a cat 5 once she gets further west into the warmer waters and low shear.
 
NHC at 11am:

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
 
ForsythSnow said:
You do realize that there are no islands near this storm and that's a Pacific storm right? Also look at the coordinates :p
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Oh my Lol! I swear that is not what I shared, don't know if it's a time sensitive.... well that wouldn't make sense, dang it but I know that's not the image I shared, I'm pretty sure 1300 would have corrected me instead of liking it?? Wow Lol
 
Cone starting to get awfully close to the EC now.... going to be some long days ahead

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Man, the forward motion really catapults the storm forward Sunday night through Tuesday. Seems like it would need something more major than what we are seeing to keep it from plowing into the SE coast.
 
Man, there are new PTC popping up everywhere. Hard to keep up
 
Aside from Hazel, most of the category 3 or 4 hurricanes that have hit or come very close the Carolinas in the observed record come from the east or southeast, Fran (1996), Hugo (1989), Gracie (1959), Helene (1958) are good examples of this. These storms usually spend less time over shallower shelf waters, often aren’t experiencing southwesterly wind shear from an approaching trough, and minimize the amount of time they parallel the US coastline and thus limiting the ingestion of dry, continental air into their cores. The fact that Florence is smaller than the average TC only makes matters worse in this regard. Hopefully things change for the better soon because I don’t like the way we’re headed.
 
This is almost turning into a worse case scenario.... Florence still disorganized/weak enough to continue on the westward heading but intact enough that I see no reason once shear relaxes that it want take off like a rocket, and then that building high. Oh boy.. oh and now we're talking 5-7 days that's not necessarily voodoo land
 
packfan98 said:
Man, the forward motion really catapults the storm forward Sunday night through Tuesday. Seems like it would need something more major than what we are seeing to keep it from plowing into the SE coast.
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That’s the thing about Hugo, once it was under the ridge, it made a beeline for the coast and never wavered, and was moving very rapidly, up to and after landfall!
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s the thing about Hugo, once it was under the ridge, it made a beeline for the coast and never wavered, and was moving very rapidly, up to and after landfall!
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Yes it did. The forward motion speed added to the max winds and allowed it to wreak havoc well inland. That could happen here, or it could slow and stall. Both offer potential disasters. There's still a little room at the top of the cone for it to escape, but it seems to be slowly disappearing.
 
2870A72C-8DA9-42BC-AD2D-EFEF0C3395EE.png B Rad says time for ready mode!
 
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
 
GFS has Florence continuing west with a little south of west movement in the short term.... let's see where it goes

Almost identical to 06 so far but it's very early
 
Shawn said:
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
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Yeah Hugo was being shot to the coast between the strong upper low and the ridge. It was even getting squashed in the process.


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Shawn said:
I want to remind everyone speaking of Hugo. Hugo was in a much better position for a Conus landfall to begin with.

Florence is a rare case so far. Do I believe it? Maybe. Just historically, she is against the odds. Lets see how fast she ramps up over the next day or so.
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Yes, Shawn. Hugo was much further south when it made its NW turn. Then it took off like a bat out of hell..and if the ridge modeled for next week is anything like that which Hugo had to deal with then I don’t see any other factor that will be able to keep it from turning NW. That stout ridge in 89’ couldn’t keep at Major hurricane at bay so why would this one (which is already sitting at a much more northern latitude) I feel like everything hinges on when this thing decides to ramp back up and turn to the NW.
 
Little by little the GFS shifting the orientation of that High, I'm afraid this is not going to end well
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