This!
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
This!
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Please save the presents for 12/25 ... LOL
The concerning thing for me is this, correct me if I'm wrong on this, but over the last couple of days the hope for a recurve was based on Florence escaping in the weakness (trough) in the next 3-4 days but if I'm looking at it correctly all models have her missing that escape route now. And now the recurve is closer to the EC although most still show a recurve..... if Flo misses the trough in a few days I'd say all bets are off, modeling of those Highs in the extended range are always problematic
pcbjr
Member
Precisely ...
12z GEFS compared to the 18z GEFS.... just for comparison and it looks like the 18z is slightly further west but a safe recurve, but again if she misses that trough in a few days. Lots of "ifs" I know
Bottom line for me..... I'd feel much better if Florence took the escape route in about 96 hours
pcbjr
Member
I'll beat this drum until I'm deaf, or everyone else is ... 7 days out is too much of a fog to sail a ship in to ... trends, yes, a solution, no ...12z GEFS compared to the 18z GEFS.... just for comparison and it looks like the 18z is slightly further west but a safe recurve, but again if she misses that trough in a few days. Lots of "ifs" I know
pcbjr
Member
Thank you ...
Latest estimate of coordinates (as of 0Z):
AL, 06, 2018090600, , BEST, 0, 231N, 469W, 115, 953, HU
So it is still moving just as NW as it has been. 3 hours earlier it was at 22.7/46.6. So, it has moved 0.4N/0.3W since 5 PM. Still no shift back to the model consensus’ WNW. Just sayin’. Food for thought.
AL, 06, 2018090600, , BEST, 0, 231N, 469W, 115, 953, HU
So it is still moving just as NW as it has been. 3 hours earlier it was at 22.7/46.6. So, it has moved 0.4N/0.3W since 5 PM. Still no shift back to the model consensus’ WNW. Just sayin’. Food for thought.
Kylo
Member
Euro kept it mostly NW on it's run from today. GFS does flatten it out a little bit more but results in roughly the same spot by day 7-8. It's probably why todays runs has shifted potential landfall further north into the mid atlantic, if there is a landfall.
Kylo
Member
One worry is Hurricane Matthew. It was supposed to miss comfortably east of Florida then day 4-5 models started shifting west run after run. It had a highly anomalous SE Canada ridge too.
I just noticed something. A mere 48 hours ago it was projected to be at only 21.5 N while already at 48.4 W today. Instead she’s already up to 23.1 N and only to 46.9 W as of 8PM today, which means she’s nearly 150 miles NE of her progged 48 hour NHC position. That’s not chickenfeed. Is this miss due mainly to the strength being way underforecasted? Does this mean that over the next couple of days these misses to the NE are liable to continue? Remember folks that 30N has been established by the models as a crucial latitude to reach before 60W to give a great chance for recurving before hitting the US.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Something else to note is it's either undergoing an ERC or taking some heavy shear. Looking worse now as a lot of the convection is going NE of the storm.
Brent
Member
NHC doubting the trough gets it
Florence has been moving more to the right during the past several
hours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically
aligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term
motion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the
hurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by
the weekend. It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.
It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble
spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate
what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next
week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells
emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.
Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early
next week.
Florence has been moving more to the right during the past several
hours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically
aligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term
motion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the
hurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by
the weekend. It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.
It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble
spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate
what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next
week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells
emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.
Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early
next week.
Last edited:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah and their track is almost going due WNW in the long run now. They also are expecting a return to cat 4 status by day 5.
snowlover91
Member
Heavy shear. 30kts right now and may pass through a band of 40kts of shear. Also, mid level shear is pretty high and we will probably see significant weakening.
Interestingly the GFS has done the best with Florence so it would be the model I would look at the hardest along with the Euro.
Larry, the NE trends today are interesting but I don’t know if they’ll matter soon. Once this gets to about 25N it should bend hard west like hitting a wall. Now if she keeps chugging NW then chances of interaction with the trough go up in a big way.
Kylo
Member
What I was thinking. There has not been an appreciable ridge to stop it from climbing past day or so and with the big spike in strength a more poleward track isn’t surprising over past 48 hours. But, every little bit helps which might be why we are seeing models shift north of NC with potential landfall. Tomorrow heights build and Florence should weaken so as you said a more westward track should occur.
Hi Rick,
I'd say in general based on memory I'd lean that way, but every storm is different. From what I've read, I do think it has tracked more NW than WNW the last 2 days overall due to it being stronger than progged. Going forward, I'm not sure if this idea will continue to hold for Flo, however.