Brent
Member
Hwrf into the 920s pressure by day 4 and yeah that
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
And Gov. Cooper has declared state of emergency already
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If I may ask, what has changed in the last 6 hours to make anyone (ABC) think this thing is moving out to sea? Because the 6z Goofus just ran?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Getting the NOAA G-IV data ingested into the models should help w/ forecast confidence, if the ridge is sampled to be any stronger than currently modeled, you can kiss the OTS solutions completely goodbye.
18z FV3-GFS , yep definitely further SW and slower. Eastern NC/Outer Banks landfall.
EDIT: Florence continues to move right up along the East Coast before making a right turn between NJ/LI coastlines. (hrs.156 - 204)
12z run
EDIT: Florence continues to move right up along the East Coast before making a right turn between NJ/LI coastlines. (hrs.156 - 204)
12z run
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Take it for what it's worth because it's the HWRF, but given Florence's history to even exceed MPI, small size, and environmental conditions it'll encounter over the SW Atlantic, can't rule out the HWRF being onto something here and/or discounting Florence becoming a category 5 hurricane sometime in the next 5-7 days.
Brent
Member
Yikes
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HWRF is a nightmare waiting to happen in the Carolinas. The last thing I ever wanna see is a category 4 or 5 hurricane barreling at me from the southeast.
Kylo
Member
18z GEFS interaction with ull in SE.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Don't forget to mention the 225 mph winds at the 850 mb level either! Reminds me of what the HWRF spit out for Irma last year.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Could get wet too!
That could play a big role also on where it go. What do some of you guys think about this feature?18z GEFS interaction with ull in SE.
NoSnowATL
Member
+1000 glad it’s looking like Ga is going to be on the safe side.... as of now.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Can't say a thing until the recon data gets into the models after tomorrow's flights. Still a chance anywhere from Jacksonville to OBX I would say
Looking like Mack and I can watch this one safely from a distance (subject to change) I’ll take my 1.5” rainfall and call it a season. Wake me up when September ends
Convection has really been blowing up over the past couple of hours with Florence. She looks a lot better now than she did 12 hrs. ago this morning. She may be prepping to blast off over the next 12+ hrs. You can even see lightning near some of the heaviest concentration of convection.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I’m gonna just drop my guess here: we get 5”+ of rain and 60mph gusts as it hits NFL or GA coast, and goes right over us
The last part is what I'm worried about........as of now. We better hope these SW trends stop before the models come to a complete consensus on a potential landfall point.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Jimmy H, look at Johnny C, true weather pimp! The outflow on Flo, looking good!
I see what you did there. The old “5 day out snowstorm. Buy the milk and bread” approach. I want no part of this. I’m calling for a hit Myrtle Beach or north. I just remember with Mathew things kept changing and changing and I thought I knew where it was going but never even had a clue
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Latest info is the winds are down to 60 mph and pressure is up to 999. Thought it was done weakening. This means trouble I bet.
JC is a beast of a meteorologist. He’s a likeable down to earth figure. He’s the reason I love tracking winter weather. Hard to beat that childhood excitement of turning on the 5 o’clock news and hearing John hype an incoming snowstorm. Good times
If that’s the case, this thing isn’t done going south
Kylo
Member
If that’s the case, this thing isn’t done going south
UK and Euro had Florence really weakening today into tomorrow, the UK starts strengthening tomorrow night into Sunday. Euro doesn't start until Monday. Would be ironic if she never recovered and was just a weak wave.
HWRF keeps it weak for another 24-36 hours and like the UK starts on Sunday getting it going.
Storm5
Member
Convection has really been blowing up over the past couple of hours with Florence. She looks a lot better now than she did 12 hrs. ago this morning. She may be prepping to blast off over the next 12+ hrs. You can even see lightning near some of the heaviest concentration of convection.
The convection is off to the NE of the center . It’s not stacked . It’s a hot mess at the moment . Won’t last very long but it’s got some work to do before it takes off
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Storm5
Member
You can see the shear has increased almost acting to help vent the storm from SW to NE creating the increased convection that’s to the NE of the center
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snowlover91
Member
Maybe I’ve never noticed it before but the enormous anticyclone models predict over Florence leading up to landfall is VERY concerning to me.
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CMC
RollTide18
Member
That’s one giant Annular Hurricane
Yeah the environment is Caribbean like with the big ridge to the north. High moisture as well with the ridge.
The HWRF is laughable at best guys.. come on.
Not trying to be a debbie downer for the ones who want some low pressure monster floating around out there... but those pressures can't be taken seriously... ensemble members of various modeling have nothing of that low of pressure. In fact, few, if any, ensemble members of more reliable guidance even look like the GFS's pressure estimate.. which so far has been the lowest of the Global suites.
Not trying to be a debbie downer for the ones who want some low pressure monster floating around out there... but those pressures can't be taken seriously... ensemble members of various modeling have nothing of that low of pressure. In fact, few, if any, ensemble members of more reliable guidance even look like the GFS's pressure estimate.. which so far has been the lowest of the Global suites.
It may be laughable but with weather these days nothing suprises me sorry
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I was going to see this has already defied history if it even hits land with where Flo was at.
snowlover91
Member
None of the guidance forecasted the rapid strengthening of Florence to a category 4 in an unfavorable environment and marginal SST’s either though. It’s worth looking at and given the synoptic I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub 930mb storm. It’s about as perfect as you can get for rapid strengthening and a few ERC’s could greatly expand the eye. We will find out in a few days...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Latest discussion on the storm is not pretty. Cone is SW again and the forecast calls for major RI and 130 mph on day 4 and 5. My worry is the repeat in 130 mph may end up putting day 5 stronger in the end. The cone aims for NC/SC border now.
Grady Cook
Member
Not pretty at all.
After 48 hours, the
deep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little
shear while the system is over very warm waters. This pattern
favors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings
Florence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised
slightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the
guidance. It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial
intensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks
to the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range.
The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt. Florence is
expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours
under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge
is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and
build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory
with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall
guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction. Unfortunately with such a
large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,
the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is
confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/080251.shtml?