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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

you can just tell the NHC is really concerned by the potential here... I mean the east coast isn't even in the cone yet...

the HWRF may be overdone but there is a lot of support for a high end hurricane here
 
the shear has been well forecast anyway, the big shock was it becoming a Cat 4 the other day before the shear... I had fuily expected a naked swirl most of the week(and so did most of the models)
 
Isn’t there a new model run or something? What about the NAM!?
 
Brent said:
you can just tell the NHC is really concerned by the potential here... I mean the east coast isn't even in the cone yet...

the HWRF may be overdone but there is a lot of support for a high end hurricane here
Click to expand...

That was one of the most sobering discussions I've ever read. Pretty much the gun is aimed and just waiting it to firr.
 
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_20.png
 
It's almost identical to 18z just a touch slower, as mentioned
2ddd8f205d814ee3cf7017b074fbccb0.gif


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GFS headed for another NC hit.... curious to see the Euro because it seems, for now anyway, that the SW adjustment in the models may have stopped
 
The CMC is certainly a plausible scenario but it is also has the weakest system of all the modeling which has much to do with it's track..
 
geez the UKMET Is almost in Georgia

0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87

would be between Savannah and Charleston

Screenshot_2018-09-07-23-34-52.png
 
metwannabe said:
Also with it slowing down has those winds for over 20 hours..... reminds me of Irene, no thank you
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That would be brutal. The one thing I noticed about the 0z gfs is that it matched the 12z euro pretty well with the pattern as a whole through landfall. Its crazy to me they are in that good of agreement at that lead time. I don't like the fact that if you blend the gfs and euro tracks the center essentially would be over mby

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SD said:
That would be brutal. The one thing I noticed about the 0z gfs is that it matched the 12z euro pretty well with the pattern as a whole through landfall. Its crazy to me they are in that good of agreement at that lead time. I don't like the fact that if you blend the gfs and euro tracks the center essentially would be over mby

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Click to expand...
I'm stocking up this weekend just to be on the safe side...
 
Shear is letting up and and center is pulling under the convection now. Florence could start intensifying quicker than modeled by the globals which may shift the track north some tomorrow if that’s the case.
Estimated position
upload_2018-9-8_0-41-53.gif
Shear map
upload_2018-9-8_0-42-16.gif
 
As am I. Reading the NHC's disco and the RAH's AFD for next week, along with the trends in the models so far, I can't remember the last time a hurricane had me this nervous! (Chatham County, NC)
metwannabe said:
I'm stocking up this weekend just to be on the safe side...
Click to expand...

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snowlover91 said:
Shear is letting up and and center is pulling under the convection now. Florence could start intensifying quicker than modeled by the globals which may shift the track north some tomorrow if that’s the case.
Estimated position
Click to expand...

Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.

eR7rycT.gif
 
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