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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

snowlover91 said:
Not good.. the UK has shifted north in line with the Euro pointing to a NC landfall. Here is the text output.
HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81
Click to expand...
Seems like more of a GA/SC risk per that run.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Seems like more of a GA/SC risk per that run.
Click to expand...

With it rounding the ridge it would probably take a more NW approach if the UK run went out a bit further. Here is the graph, blue line. Either way it's definitely ominous for the East Coast and all models are converging inside the 6 day window that there are increased odds for a landfall. To summarize, GFS shifted west considerably, CMC has landfall in NC, UK adjusted north and looks to threaten land.
storm_06.gif
 
Sounds like all the other models are ganging up on the GFS now.
 
Flooding could be a major concern as well if this makes landfall and slows down/stalls like the CMC indicates.
gem_apcpn_seus_39.png
 
Arcc said:
The more time passes in this shear, the higher percentage chance we are tracking a dead naked swirl. Shear is killing Florence at this point.
Click to expand...
It's hanging in there though. Convection is developing over the center again so it's still strong inside, just being beat up heavily. Not good news if it's weak and gets shoved further west and south.
 
Interesting track there. Basically it hits 25N and just goes due west or wsw even for a time.
 
Very strong ridge on the Euro at 96 hours and well within it's wheelhouse too. No OTS track here and will likely be another landfall if I had to guess.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_5.png
 
Compare this with the GFS ridging at the same time, much weaker on the GFS hence the northern track it takes.
gfs_z500a_atl_17.png
 
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