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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I can't recall too many instances where the NHC has gone this crazy w/ an intensity forecast in the medium range. Yikes.

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
 
Florence has been tracking just south of the several most recent NHC forecasts, largely due to the fact that the storm weakened considerably to a TS and remained weaker longer than some models like the GFS for example, were anticipating. The next 72 hours are going to be crucial in determining precisely where Florence makes a direct hit on the SE US coast.

tr14.png
 
I'll be in Chicago roughly around the time this strikes the SE. Worried for my brother though while I'm gone as there could be a period without power if the center is anywhere close to the Atlanta area. I guess we'll have to closely see how this develops. Irma did some damage here and it was barely a tropical storm.
 
Webber, can you recall the last time or two that they have? If not, would you know where I might be able to dig up this information?
Webberweather53 said:
I can't recall too many instances where the NHC has gone this crazy w/ an intensity forecast in the medium range. Yikes.

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
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6z gfs is trying its best to have Florence miss the SE. it’s NE of the 0z run due to steady intensification over the next 36 hours. I would think that we should know by tomorrow night if there’s any room for a recurve. I put that at a less than 10% chance at the moment.
 
Gfs is nuts. It stalls off Hatteras for days as the pressure drops to 904mb. Highly doubtful!
 
gfs_florence.png
 
packfan98 said:
6z gfs is trying its best to have Florence miss the SE. it’s NE of the 0z run due to steady intensification over the next 36 hours. I would think that we should know by tomorrow night if there’s any room for a recurve. I put that at a less than 10% chance at the moment.
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I would agree, not 0 chance but that window is closing fast, now let's see how quickly or slowly it intensifies since this really is a major factor in exactly who feels the most impact..... next 48 hours critical to determining that
 
Fv5 coming in a bit south of the gfs. Looks like it’s keying in on that weakness over the se like the gfs to turn her north.


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Really nothing to add to track thinking as the Eps really tells the story, as you can see the sooner it intensifies the further north the tracks and vice versa...

eps_florence.png
 
BHS1975 said:
Fv5 coming in a bit south of the gfs. Looks like it’s keying in on that weakness over the se like the gfs to turn her north.


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The GFS may be some what of an outlier at the moment but little concerning for us to see it coming back north... the Fv3 is looking extremely problematic
 
snowlover91 said:
Look how quickly she is organizing her core too.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html
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I wouldn't be so eager here. While Mimmic looks nice for the moment, there's a noteworthy push of dry air that's wrapped all the way to the eastern side of the circulation and will likely penetrate whatever core is trying to build here and cloud tops have warmed appreciably, this has a long ways to go before we see any very substantial strengthening. Even as the LLC & MLC become vertically stacked, it takes time, usually on the order of 36 hours (or more) for non-linear convective feedbacks and PV redistribution to begin in earnest and allow the core to warm again.

goes16_vis-swir_06L_201809081105.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Really nothing to add to track thinking as the Eps really tells the story, as you can see the sooner it intensifies the further north the tracks and vice versa...

eps_florence.png
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Looks like based on those members if it will take the NC or loop route it has to start the NW turn right now. Otherwise if it holds it's West track it's a bullet for the GA/SC border area. Makes sense and should be fun to watch.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like based on those members if it will take the NC or loop route it has to start the NW turn right now. Otherwise if it holds it's West track it's a bullet for the GA/SC border area. Makes sense and should be fun to watch.
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For the most part yeah I see that but if you really look at all the members there are still a handful in that southern cluster that strengthen before 70W and get pretty far north.... anyway but yeah "fun" to watch no doubt
 
The 6z HWRF's evolution of the general intensity & its trends going forward w/ Florence seem fairly reasonable, in line with what I'm (& the NHC) are thinking, Florence probably won't really take off until Sunday night or Monday. Florence completing its eyewall will be the key initial step in kickstarting a significant bout of intensification, and this is bound to take something in the ballpark of 30-36 hours given the dry air its about to ingest, current organization, and how high the shear still is atm (although it's falling as we speak).
hwrf_ref_06L_15.png
 
metwannabe said:
Really nothing to add to track thinking as the Eps really tells the story, as you can see the sooner it intensifies the further north the tracks and vice versa...

eps_florence.png
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I think you have the EPS from 12z yesterday. Here is the 00z EPS today....
1ce5d12ea82ffc6977df7e8c09dd9347.jpg



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That is a nasty slug of dry stable air wrapping into Florence. You can easily see it on IR to the west and SW of Flo. As Webb stated, it will take a while to get that out and with the shear dying to help sustain what convection there is, Flo may look really bad over the next 24-36hrs. And while unlikely, there is a lot of those ensembles that never strengthen it much and this could be why.
 

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Florence's WSW motion over the last several hours is putting outside or on the outside edge of the GEFS envelope, expect a westward shift in this suite in forthcoming runs. In a situation like this where there's a rebuilding ridge overhead, it's often a good idea to use the GEFS/GFS models to denote the eastern edge of the envelope of legitimate solutions because this model will almost always (& already has) trend(ed) SW. Given that this eastern edge is already near or over Hatteras, certainly leaves a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach wrt the chances Florence hits the SE US coast.
AL06_2018090806_GEFS_large.png
 
For the sake of prosperity of mentioning every model guidance out there, 6z NAVGEM looks to be NC bound at the end of it's run at hr. 144.
navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_24.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence's WSW motion over the last several hours is putting outside or on the outside edge of the GEFS envelope, expect a westward shift in this suite in forthcoming runs. In a situation like this where there's a rebuilding ridge overhead, it's often a good idea to use the GEFS/GFS models to denote the eastern edge of the envelope of legitimate solutions because this model will almost always (& already has) trend(ed) SW. Given that this eastern edge is already near or over Hatteras, certainly leaves a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach wrt the chances Florence hits the SE US coast.
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I noticed between the 11pm and 5am advisories Florence has lost some latitude (24.9N to 24.5N).
 
6z FV3-GFS - It was a SC landfall on the 00z run last night.
EDIT: It stalls/meanders over Eastern NC for at least the next 36hrs after this timeframe.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_25.png
 
Trying to catch up from the runs overnight. It looks like most of the models show Flo hitting between Charleston and somewhere in NC. Does that sound right?
 
TWC’s cone has it off the Carolinas coast at 145 mph winds, early Thursday morning!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Borderline Cat4. Prob downgraded to a Cat3 once half of the eyewall crosses over the coast. My dad told me stories of Hugo. Said they were working in Santee which is well inland. They left for a few days until Hugo pushed through and when they came back he said it was unrecognizable. He couldn’t believe it. These things can do serious damage WELL inland
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Yes, the forward speed has a lot to do with that! I mean Hugo made landfall at 135 mph , I believe. CLT and Gastonia has gusts to around 90 mph +
 
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