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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Snowfan said:
Personally I do think it could come back but it depends on how the models do tonight. The model trends tonight/tommorow is crucial.
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I'm not sure it has to happen as soon as tonight or tomorrow. My benchmark for model locking in only occurs once we get the first real sampling of the pieces when they get in the arena. Up until then it's mostly model guessing. After the data gets ingested we would need to see major shifts if we were still behind the 8 ball
 
Snowfan said:
Personally I do think it could come back but it depends on how the models do tonight. The model trends tonight/tommorow is crucial.
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I personally would not count on it. Maybe some ice in CAD areas would be my guess. We need to have that TPV to roll through before a board wide storm is possible.
 
If I can throw my 2 cents into the mix...

I think the Wed-Fri storm system is as simple as following the barclonic zone. Wherever that sets up the storm will follow the southern edge. If the PV gets far enough south or goes far enough east to bring brutal arctic cold from the upper plains to about TN or so then sure it's very reasonable the south will have a nice mixture of ice/snow. However(easily take them with a grain of salt right now) if what some of the operational and ensembles are showing is accurate it screams to me the STJ warming the south up in conflicting with the brutal cold air to the north.

Not so cold in Atlanta and brutal cold around Chicago indicate your barclonic zone of precipitation falls somewhere in the middle of that.

That being said I could see some shifting still occurring obviously given 132 or so hours out. I'm afraid somebody is going to get a nasty ice storm though.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Does anyone have the gut feeling this storm is gonna come back? Or do you guys think it’s gone.
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I hope you weren't too attached.

While it won't take much in terms of the model adjustment (mostly with the cold air press being based over Ontario/New England rather than Manitoba right meow), I just don't see it happening. The ridge has been flexing and while most models have problems with low-level cold air, I've never seen an overrunning set up in my time flex back to an orientation like the precip angle we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday. I'm also not sure that I've seen a day 10-11 paste job come back with as much gusto if any at all. There's a first time for everything tho.

I'd certainly love to be wrong...and I'll be up at 0z with a nip of bourbon looking on like most everyone else.

Yeah, Dec 2017 got up off the mat for a lot of folks and the short rangers nailed that one down, but it would just be too perfect to see something like what we saw earlier in the week do the same.

That said, I hope I'm wrong.
 
I'm just going to focus on the cold front and when it finally clears the eastern seaboard, if it ever does, instead of storms..The great runs putting snow down the other day were all overrunning/ trailing waves after the initial push of Arctic air. That garbage showing up Friday is the leading edge and looks exactly like an Arctic front should. Now the front clears Saturday so the time frame to watch is Sunday thru say Wednesday. Just like the CPC outlook states. Now if we keep kicking the can down the road getting the front to clear we have trouble.
 
Wes Wyatt WBRC

A First Alert for a chance of sleet mixing with rain in the morning for areas to the north, along the 278 corridor. Mostly a cold rain for the entire area heading into the evening. Late tomorrow night the rain could mix with or briefly change to snow to the far north. We could see some light accumulations over far north Alabama tomorrow night. We’re also watching a system for late next week. The new model runs show a warmer setup and more of a rain event. It’s still over five days out and a lot can change. I’ll keep you posted!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Phase 7 MJO in a La Niña is terrible for the SE, maybe this tropical forcing mode is the reason why the cold keeps getting “pushed back”, you would think the giant west based -NAO would squeeze it East but it’s retrograding into a TPV thats being tugged west by another TPV, which pushes it west
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We losing our -NAO if I have been reading the model runs right . I don’t want to be that guy but @Webberweather53 and a few others swore up and down it would be there for a long time and there was 0 sign it was going anywhere this week . Not tryna be hateful here just kinda a hahah ooops moment .
 
deltadog03 said:
I say we still have a few more days before throwing in the towel. Yes, the trends today sucked. We keep moving forward tho yall!
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I think the models may come to an solution by Tuesday, all the models are all over the place and will be until the arctic front is defined. Myfrotho704 is correct cold air damming is in play. Just a side note l had a fishing tourn. last year at this same time at Lake G'ville we had an 1"of snow. l have a tourn. on Lake Martin on 2/13. lt's going to happen:cool:
 
Lickwx said:
We losing our -NAO if I have been reading the model runs right . I don’t want to be that guy but @Webberweather53 and a few others swore up and down it would be there for a long time and there was 0 sign it was going anywhere this week . Not tryna be hateful here just kinda a hahah ooops moment .
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Oh it’s here but it’s not doing much because the TPV is stuck, for example the GEFS shows it the entire run, getting away from that classic west based look towards the end of the run AFDEDEAD-5D5C-44C8-8AEC-E63A338F71C6.png58CEA91E-D050-45A1-9FF7-6BDB0FB06387.png1A5F1B16-2415-4C8A-A648-F73CB0CEE651.png
 
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