That composite is ugly. But I remember Webb saying every single La Nina since 1980 had a +NAO in Feb if my memory serves me correct. So you would think the -NAO would have to help.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
BelmontWX79
Member
You may wanna wait till verification on that. Models have been trying to get rid of it all season.
LickWx
Member
Oh yeah it’s sticky I know lol. It’s been one of the most constant thing this winter .
GaSnowhound
Member
Finally the demon is being called out by his name .....“phase 7” we rebuke you in every conceivable way possible.....you know exactly where you can go”. Seriously this is a very interesting observation snd im honestly astounded none of that has been included in CPC/NWS published discos...or Maybe it has and I didn’t realize
looking at the EPS, it’s warmer for much of the SE, however much more of a CAD signal and about the same for CAD regions temp wise
cd2play
Member
This system is going to pique Bruce's (tennesseestorm) interest by this time tomorrow
Still was warmer for everyone at the end of the run, what a heartbreaking trend 
cd2play
Member
It will probably finally get here too little too late
GaSnowhound
Member
What would be interesting to me, since Mythro injected the MJO, during this “waiting for models to lock on phase”, is for GaWx to provide his stat analysis in some relevant format as it relates to our current situations.g. MJO 7, Feb, 12-16 last 200 years etc etc. he is unbelievable for anyone on here who hasn’t seen his work. He can certainly put a lot of data and context around a given weather scenario.
It may tomorrow but not by the weekend. The trend so far this winter is to trend warmer then trend colder.
Id guess heavily that by Thursday it would have trended to slightly below average temp wise with rain.
Pretty solid CAPE on most members 
also a CAD signal ?
also a CAD signal ?
The + with this event is there’s a chance we could have elevated thunderstorms rotating around on the edge of the ridge if we warm up enough/strengthen the H5 ridge
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LickWx
Member
Hahaha warm up enough aahahahah no bud sorry not happening. The CAD signal is there , unfortunately for us we will be settling for CAD. Maybe just maybe we warm up enough but CAD has been incredible this year .
Well shoot give me some elevated thunderstorms on top of the CAD inversion
Looks like the Midlands of South Carolina may involved in the CAD event. Unless we get that rare CAD event, where we might see mostly snow/sleet(like Feb 2014 for example),I much prefer not to have a CAD event at all and get warm enough for severe weather.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Not sure- @deltadog03 or @Webberweather53 - when do you think the earliest opportunity would be any of this data could be sampled into the North American upper air network?
Furthermore- do you think it would make any difference in the set-up of the PV over Manitoba vs where (most) of us need it to be?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not according to @Myfrotho704_ ?
No, this run is worse, TPV is getting held back more, big uptick in temps vs 12z, quite a insane jump towards a warmer solution 
I’d be excited about the 0z GFS, if I was in the south
Yeah it might show a severe weather setup