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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Rain Cold said:
It feels like the models are forecasting phase 7 of the mjo for the foreseeable future and are spitting out patterns that match that. The reality is, the big block is going to mute that pattern, and the models will correct cooler as we work in...as long as the blocking persists.

The good news is that arctic air will be in North America. But the big problem is, until we actually get some ridging along the west coast, the cold is going to continue to dump into the western 4/5 of the country.

What that means for the southeast is continued cool/near normal conditions with some slop events possible for the very northern and western parts of the SE. The NE, Midwest, upper south-central, and western US will continue to get the bulk of the wintry weather.

We can't rule out a brief arctic intusion into the SE. But the magnitude of which has been appearing in the 10 day-ish time frame is almost certainly overdone. If, however, we see this type of cold make it across the mountains and into the area, a more serious winter threat could emerge.

The long and short of it is, the seasonal pattern of long range cold evolving to near normal temps will likely remain until we see better tropical forcing and some ridging along the west coast. If and when blocking breaks down, we will probably be discussing severe weather.
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This could well be more of the reality of things. Certainly sounds plausible to my novice mind
 
GFS is developing a sorta “extension” of the TPV that’s digging, it was a better run in the pacific yet that what I said above ruins it E9D35135-B31B-4F61-AB92-BE6CAACA0F09.png
 
This could be a good run for the midsouth again. Probably going to be ice so I don’t know if I would call it good
 
Storm5 said:
I’m not sure why people are still focused on the Thursday / Friday . That period is dead now. We have to wait see what comes of the Saturday-Tuesday period now


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That period looks to be dead for Ga. and the Carolinas, but I wouldn't say it's a goner yet for Alabama and points west though.
 
Storm5 said:
I’m not sure why people are still focused on the Thursday / Friday . That period is dead now. We have to wait see what comes of the Saturday-Tuesday period now


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I'm also not sure why all of the massive highs never enter the US east of the Rockies.
 
CAD has started to get more consistent in the guidance and also the GEFS have always been full steam ahead on CAD areas receiving a big ice storm .. so not surprising the operational is moving that way
 
bfa9d308e68fa31f1e4aaab3cc63f898.jpg

I’m sure this gets crushed


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Storm5 said:
I’m not sure why people are still focused on the Thursday / Friday . That period is dead now. We have to wait see what comes of the Saturday-Tuesday period now


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You’re right except for the possibility of a strong CAD for the Carolinas. Even the CPC outlook yesterday was focused for the 2/13-2/15 time range
 
Dang. Highs in the low teens in north ms next Saturday. That’s just way too cold. Glad it won’t really happen
 

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