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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

metwannabe

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Lol Rah NWS nailed it in the first sentence....

Forecast confidence goes out the window for the remainder of the
work week
as a broad upper trough over much of central and eastern
Canada and the U.S. A wave will likely transit the eastern U.S. on
Tuesday with a general westerly flow across the south. With time,
the trough amplifies across the central U.S., Arctic air spills
south, and the flow becomes increasingly active and southwesterly
across the South and the Carolinas. Indications are that the flow
will become amplified on Thursday into Friday as a storm system
moves across the Southeast. With a piece of the Arctic high setting
up over eastern Canada, there is a potential for some wintry
precipitation although details are impossible to resolve at this
point.
 

HugeSnowStick

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Like my name says, HugeSnow....We are waaay overdue.

From KATL/FFC

Now, the real story of the long term, the potential for winter
weather Thursday into Friday. First off, there are significant
differences between latest model runs in regards to surface temps,
with the GFS having high temps in the low 30s with the Euro showing
high temps in the 60s. A near 30 degree difference. To continue to
highlight the inconsistencies, with yesterday's run the GFS was warm
and the Euro was cold. So these latest model runs have flip- flopped
around each other in regards to Temps. With all that said, we are
still monitoring the potential for another round of wintry weather
for north GA during the beginning of next weekend, but it is still
way too early to talk about amounts or coverage this far out.
 

deltadog03

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From FFC:

Now, the real story of the long term, the potential for winter
weather Thursday into Friday. First off, there are significant
differences between latest model runs in regards to surface temps,
with the GFS having high temps in the low 30s with the Euro showing
high temps in the 60s. A near 30 degree difference. To continue to
highlight the inconsistencies, with yesterday`s run the GFS was warm
and the Euro was cold. So these latest model runs have flip- flopped
around each other in regards to Temps. With all that said, we are
still monitoring the potential for another round of wintry weather
for north GA during the beginning of next weekend, but it is still
way too early to talk about amounts or coverage this far out.
 

Stormlover

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From the WPC:A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with the potential for one or two waves of low pressure to develop along this front and track northeast. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. Based on analog tools and the preferred ECMWF ensemble mean which depicts at least a 20 percent chance of 3-day precipitation amounts exceeding 0.5 inch (liquid equivalent), a slight risk of heavy snow is posted from the Southern Appalachians northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and New England, Feb 13 to 16. This snow hazard is consistent with a negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. and subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic. Due to the predicted shallow Arctic Air becoming established by week-2, there would also be an increased risk for an ice storm if any precipitation spreads northward into the southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Tennessee Valley. Freezing rain could also affect the Mid-Atlantic, depending on the depth of the Arctic Air. 1612561627562.png
 
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NWS BHM
TERM...
/Updated at 0245 PM CST Fri Feb 05 2021/

I won`t talk about the model-to-model, run-to-run variability in
medium-range guidance currently, that would take a lot of time.
However, the long-term forecast was updated in a few areas to
take into account the latest 12z guidance this morning.

The first notable change involves the inclusion of a light
rain/snow mix across the far north and northeast from 3 AM to 6 AM
Sunday morning. Though we don`t expect accumulations or impacts
from this, forecast soundings do suggest a brief period of light
wintry precip once temperatures in the 925-700 mb layer cool to
at or below freezing. This is associated with a shortwave/vort max
passing west to east across the TN Valley during that time. By
sunrise, NVA and drier air low-level air suggest this negligible
activity will end/depart eastward. If dry air moves in before this
cooling aloft takes place, weeing wintry precip may not occur.

The second notable change involves the well advertised Arctic
airmass and associated wintry precipitation in the Thu/Fri
timeframe. This is a very tricky forecast and the progged synoptic
setup has changed with latest guidance. Medium-range has trended
a little warmer across our area with a warm sector spreading farther
north into the Deep South on Thu. As a result, I`ve raised
temperatures and adjusted the area of wintry precip accordingly.
This generally keeps wintry precip northwest of I-59 Thu/Thu
night. Quite honestly, there could be a few rumbles of thunder in
the southeast if some of these warmer values manifest, but I left
mention of TS out for now.

The third notable change involves the transition into Friday as
another perturbation passes across the region. Though many
temperature progs are also warmer during this time, residual
moisture interacting with an airmass supportive of wintry precip
could exist farther into Central Alabama Fri and Fri night. I did
increase temperatures but other forecast details still remain
unclear. Until better consistency can be achieved in the next few
days, it`s hard to speculate on impacts, etc. Due to low forecast
confidence, the HWO will not include any potential impacts at
this time.
 
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I'm hoping this is just the Euro bias to hold things back in the west. Both the GEFS and GEPS get the cold in here by next Friday. We may not get what we want until the end of the weekend or the beginning of the following week if the waves develop along the front.
 

alfoman

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18z has the TPV further west this run. View attachment 71789
Looks like the SE ridge is coming in even stronger again so far. That trend has continued on the OP run since yesterday's 0Z run for this time frame.

Edit: So far this run is worse than 12Z but better than 0Z for our TPV placement
 

deltadog03

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I don't know if it will matter, but the vortex over AK is further NW and somewhat more "detached" from the Main TPV. I notice that the TPV is more "stretched" from west to east, but the ridge seems a littler "flatter" so far over the SE as well.
12z VS 18z
12z GFS 1.png 18z GFS 1.png
 

Rain Cold

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This was the 12Z run of the GFS on Jan 29th or roughly the same time frame out from today that todays runs are from the Kong storm......it only missed NC temps by 20-25 degrees...

View attachment 71786
I hear you, and that's a fair point. But we're still to warm to snow or ice. I imagine we'll see some changes coming up. But we're not talking about the evolution of a storm system as much as we are large scale pattern features which are continuing to trend the wrong way. Models are pretty bad beyond day 5, but we need to see a rapid turn-around and then a trend back the other way very, very soon, or this will be another big rain or even tstorm maker for most of us.
 

Rain Cold

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Guys, please keep the one-liners in the banter threads and such.

Let's go. Let's reel 'er in. Swing and a miss. Big hit. That stupid GFS. Get the shovels. Get the rainX. Whoopty Doo number two. Yippee ki yay Mr. Falcon. Etc.

Thanks for the help!
 

deltadog03

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Well, it didn't matter it looks like...Still need that TPV further SE for sure.
 
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