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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I don't know if it will matter, but the vortex over AK is further NW and somewhat more "detached" from the Main TPV. I notice that the TPV is more "stretched" from west to east, but the ridge seems a littler "flatter" so far over the SE as well.
12z VS 18z
12z GFS 1.png18z GFS 1.png
 
Downeastnc said:
This was the 12Z run of the GFS on Jan 29th or roughly the same time frame out from today that todays runs are from the Kong storm......it only missed NC temps by 20-25 degrees...

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I hear you, and that's a fair point. But we're still to warm to snow or ice. I imagine we'll see some changes coming up. But we're not talking about the evolution of a storm system as much as we are large scale pattern features which are continuing to trend the wrong way. Models are pretty bad beyond day 5, but we need to see a rapid turn-around and then a trend back the other way very, very soon, or this will be another big rain or even tstorm maker for most of us.
 
Guys, please keep the one-liners in the banter threads and such.

Let's go. Let's reel 'er in. Swing and a miss. Big hit. That stupid GFS. Get the shovels. Get the rainX. Whoopty Doo number two. Yippee ki yay Mr. Falcon. Etc.

Thanks for the help!
 
Well, it didn't matter it looks like...Still need that TPV further SE for sure.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hear you, and that's a fair point. But we're still to warm to snow or ice. I imagine we'll see some changes coming up. But we're not talking about the evolution of a storm system as much as we are large scale pattern features which are continuing to trend the wrong way. Models are pretty bad beyond day 5, but we need to see a rapid turn-around and then a trend back the other way very, very soon, or this will be another big rain or even tstorm maker for most of us.
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I take solace in the fact the GFS and Euro both stomped us with a monster around the same time 8-9 days out, seems like when they agree in that range they always find their way back to that solution after punishing us in the mid range. I am sticking with my call for MBY to get at least 6" out of this "event" for at least 24 more hrs.....

basically I need this from the models....

throw-me-a-freakin-bone-here.jpg
 
I’m honestly perplexed with this set up. I’m my 20 plus years of model watching, you do acquire a sense of pattern recognition, or at least a sense of what is a “typical” pattern for air masses. I still think the models are way off with this one. Not that I anticipate a huge winter storm, but it makes more sense to me to have this trend further SE for a winter storm, or for there to be severe weather with the front followed by sharp cold as the air mass bleeds forward. This crazy CAD look with all the ice the models are spitting out just doesn’t make sense to me. I expect more big changes.
 
Stormdoc said:
I’m honestly perplexed with this set up. I’m my 20 plus years of model watching, you do acquire a sense of pattern recognition, or at least a sense of what is a “typical” pattern for air masses. I still think the models are way off with this one. Not that I anticipate a huge winter storm, but it makes more sense to me to have this trend further SE for a winter storm, or for there to be severe weather with the front followed by sharp cold as the air mass bleeds forward. This crazy CAD look with all the ice the models are spitting out just doesn’t make sense to me. I expect more big changes.
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I think what you mention about pattern recognition is why most mets... like the CPC and the outlooks they issued even after the 12z model runs...
 
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Really! SMDH!
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