Stormlover
Member
hoping the gefs is different shortly
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
SouthSideYankee
Member
This will probably be the one, too. The 13-14th storm sets the stage for this one. IMHO.Really! SMDH!
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ajr
Member
Speaks to the bad luck we’ve had this winter but I feel like I’ve read “[system that trended away from us] will set the stage for the next one” nearly every week
Bless its heart, the GFS loves these 10-day weenie roast.
Man if I could get a wintertime storm chase in that would be awesome with these trends 
NWMSGuy
Member
You wouldn't happen to recall the forecast input leading up to the '94 Ice Storm would you? I know it was warm a day or so beforehand but not sure to what lead of warning we had from the weather service / news media regarding this destructive ice storm.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
We probably will have to wait until the tail end of this particular evolution and try to time it just right as the cold is retreating. That’s how we roll.
HugeSnowStick
Member
What happened to this????LOL
I'm just going to start deleting crap and giving out warning points, going to lead to a few timeouts but since most already "know" this storm won't amount to much they won't miss anything.
Stormlover
Member
boom 
Downeastnc
Member
Well at least the GFS isnt a total loss.....just another 10/11 day storm....hopefully the models get their ---- together and the day 10/11 system is round two of the most epic winter weather week of our lives lol....
Good trends here (to avoid ice) 
Storm5
Member
Storm5
Member
I changed the dates through the 16 
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Stormlover
Member
well, the threat from the CPC was from 13th to 16th. And here comes another one after that...Lol so now we wait 10 days
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bingcrosbyb
Member
Storm5
Member
It’s a weather board discussing a specific threat period for winter weather or severe weather
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Stormlover
Member
ugh, there is a specific threat for heavy snow and or ice during this period..have you not kept up?
I think it's rather apparent that folks west of the Appalachians even deep into the south are still very much in the game for the King Kong Storm period. It won't take a whole lot to move that TPV further east a few hundred miles and drive that low-level arctic air south as had been modeled until the last couple of cycles. For those of us over in Georgia and S. Carolina, it's going to take a wholesale change of that feature of now nearly a thousand miles further east six-seven days from now to put those areas outside of the favored N. Carolina CAD areas in the game anytime within the next ten days. Not impossible given the wild swings modeled beyond even four days, but will soon run out of time for that kind of change to occur in the medium term.
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JLL1973
Member
all i had was a noaa weather radio then. i remember they were talking about it a couple days before. yes it was quite warm the day before all haite broke loose
Stormlover
Member
GFS ensembles looking colder than the op...by Friday morning things turning icy 
I can’t speak for you guys in Mississippi, but here in the Carolinas there wasn’t much lead time at all. The first mention of a possible winter storm from the NWS was the in the morning on the day before it arrived and that was a Wednesday. By the evening newscasts, while highs had topped out in the mid 70s, it was the lead story. From 5pm on Wednesday to 5pm on Thursday the temp in Charlotte had fallen from 74 to 29.
GaSnowhound
Member
Or just a lot of plain ole “Damnit” should things turn against us later in week?
?? 
JJr
Member
What about WE SUCK?
It ain't on CR's list
Sigh, still a lot of members with ice for CAD regions/western SE,
One more warming trend should get that crap out of here
One more warming trend should get that crap out of here
GFS is hot trash. Should be a permaban for posting
Stormlover
Member
Odd, it changed from rain to freezing rain and snow in some parts
Storm5
Member
Getting warmer and warmer each run . Let’s pray we take a better step forward at 00z
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GaSnowhound
Member
Is there still anything to the idea that we need to roll w ensembles for now?? I know it was mentioned yesterday??
GEFS really increased SBcape this run, signaling increased dewpoints/temperatures this run 
NWMSGuy
Member
Thanks for the insight from your location during this event!
Lol GFS shows a nearly identical look that it and the Euro had for the 11-12th, now 2-3 days later! Today’s Euro had similar look at day 10. This can we keep kicking has to be totally destroyed by now.
Stephenb888
Member
Does anyone have the gut feeling this storm is gonna come back? Or do you guys think it’s gone.
See above
Will need to see better trends fairly soon I would think if it's coming back
Personally I do think it could come back but it depends on how the models do tonight. The model trends tonight/tommorow is crucial.
Personally, I believe it will for a couple reasons. First, though not as strong, there is still a decent signal on ensemble guidance. Also, many of the things that are causing the bad trends right now fall into line with what model biases and tendencies have been during this timeframe throughout the winter and if those tendencies continue to progress and correct the way we’ve seen in previous examples, the model solutions should follow...and now we have a much better cold air source to tap into to help make those changes meaningful