ForsythSnow
Moderator
I checked the 850s for some of those members and just saw the member with snow in south Florida. -30C at 850 on one member
. Can only wonder what the surface has.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
. Can only wonder what the surface has.SWVAwxfan
Member
SWVAwxfan
Member
If it snows in s Florida. I would hate to see my low temp.I checked the 850s for some of those members and just saw the member with snow in south Florida. -30C at 850 on one member
What if we get a solution that's similar to the Canadian and the cold front never get past the Appalachians? The GFS and the GEFS do look good/great in the post 6 day range. However I feel like we been through this before and as Cold Rain point edit out, the models want to keep the MJO in phase 7 for a while, which might work against us going forward.
SWVAwxfan
Member
I really don't put a lot of stock in the CMC.
ya if the front never clears the mtns then we have issues for sure.
Euro looks better 
yes please
0z vs 12z. It's a little further SE for sure.
Doc looking like it will be consistent with the colder 12Z trends, indeed.
By the way, the 12Z GEFS is the coldest run yet for the US for the run as a whole!
Maybe splitting hairs but DEF a bit SE with the TPV vs 00z run
0z vs 12z
0z vs 12z
SWVAwxfan
Member
The DOC definitely showing some improvement
Hopefully this trend will mean the TPV can actually move East this run 
cd2play
Member
Back to the high five solutions. We’re back in business
Doc clearly going to be a colder run than 0Z. No, not as cold as GFS but the key is it is colder than its prior runs. Trend is friend.
Def. further SE this run so far
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We can see why the doc looks better this run, there's a wave train in height anomaly changes that emanate from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, it's lifting more this run and speeding up the flow in the NE Pacific & kicking the vortex east
That amped ass North Pacific wave train has been responsible in screwing everything up the last week
Those little changes are huge and still show how important the position of that TPV really is 
olhausen
Member
Yeah this honestly makes me want temps to be warm. I want absolutely no part of this even if it means giving up a foot of snow later in the month. It’s just not worth it with ZR and the temps that would follow.Jesus the cmc has a nasty ice storm in Texas , LA , Mississippi, Arkansas , NW Ala and western Tennessee from Sunday the 13th-15th
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Not sure if the Euro will go more in the GFS direction or the CMC with the PV.I If we can continue to see adjustments in the PV toward being further east on all of the models with a stronger +PNA, maybe The GFS and GEFS might actually be correct for once in showing a potential winter storm in the SE in the 8-11 day range.
NWMSGuy
Member
EURO still too warm for the Mid-South at hour 120.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ECMWF looks markedly better than last night's 0z dumpster fire but is about the same as yesterday's 12z
old vs new
I'm thinking we might be in a situation at this point that if we split the difference and toss the rogue Euro type runs out from yesterday, there's plenty of potential with more energy flying through. Do I see another 12 inch+ snow storm creeping across the deep South? No, but I do see a chance at some Winter weather for everyone when it's all said and done and the pattern relaxes.
Storm5
Member
well, you wanted trends...hahah
but a very good trend for sure. I think the THUR/FRI is gonna be tough for most, but could set it up for next weekend?
Exactly as I’m seeing it, too. The Fri 0Z Euro was the coldest Euro. Then there were 2 warmer runs. Now this new run has backtracked one of the 2 warmer runs back to yesterday’s 12Z Doc, which is great to see. Now the question is will the Euro on an upcoming run backtrack the same amount and get us fully back to the very cold 0Z Euro Fri level of cold? Very possible.
Something to watch 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Would be interesting if that trough over the Aleutian keeps lifting even further north in later runs.
Storm5
Member
Euro has the same energy as the gfs swinging through next Saturday
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That seem to be a major factor too.
How much colder is 12Z Doc vs 0Z?
How much warmer was the 0Z vs yest 12Z?
Comparing the maps, I’d say today’s 12Z is actually a little colder than yest’s 12Z though still not nearly as cold as yest’s 0Z. Anyway, great trends on most models today at 12Z!
How much warmer was the 0Z vs yest 12Z?
Comparing the maps, I’d say today’s 12Z is actually a little colder than yest’s 12Z though still not nearly as cold as yest’s 0Z. Anyway, great trends on most models today at 12Z!
Love the fact that GEFS is trend towards more ridging in Alaska/far Northwest Canada. Now I would like to see the models to trend away from the SE ridge/WAR and move the PV towards SE Canada/ southern Quebec and thing can maybe get really interesting for us.
Geez lol the changes 
Indeed. And with the TPV a bit north and west of the GFS, it would likely not be sheared as much.Euro has the same energy as the gfs swinging through next Saturday
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Storm5
Member
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Jon
Member
Yeah pretty much negated the changes from yesterday’s suite. Honestly can’t say I expect that.
I’d love for the EPS to have this wrong and cave to the GEFS.
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