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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

GaWx said:
Similar to the Doc trends for the US, yest's 12Z EPS trended much warmer than the coldest run, yest's 0Z, which in itself was way colder than the Thu 12Z run. And then today's 0Z trended much warmer than yest's 12Z. So, in other words, each of the last 2 EPS were much warmer than their respective prior runs. Today's 12Z didn't go all the way back to the very cold 0Z of yest, but it did go back much colder than today's 0Z and even got to a little colder than than yest's 12Z! So, of all of the EPS runs this winter to date, the only colder EPS run than today's 12Z is yest's 0Z for the US as a whole. Also, as said before, today's 12Z GEFS is by a good margin THE coldest run of the winter to date!

Looking ahead, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the 18Z GEFS weren't a good amount warmer than the 12Z since that is the coldest of the winter. I'd consider it a big win if it is only a little warmer than 12Z and still ok if it is only moderately warmer because that's how these things typically swing from run to run. When you have THE coldest run of the winter to date by a sig margin and it has the US just about as cold as it has ever been on record overall, the odds are typically stacked for the next run to be at least somewhat warmer.

Regarding tonight's 0Z EPS vs today's 12Z, that's a tougher call. With today's 12Z being so much colder than today's 0Z, it wouldn't surprise me if tonight's 0Z goes back a little warmer.
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God it's great to have you back :)
 
Ends up laying down some high ratio snow in Tennessee but because of the cold delay there wouldn't be any chance in NC if the precip was there.

Given that this range seems to be unreliable...who knows how long it'd stay that way as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Of course right on cue, at day 9 here comes a good synoptic look.

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Yeah we've played this day 10 looks great game for entire winters until finally in March we realize we were led afoul all winter. At this point why or how can we trust the models past day 4.....its a losing strategy nowadays.
 
I’ll take my chances with a high ratio event .1-2 inches. I’m all in for the 13th/14th light event . Euro has the same energy it just gets strung out . If it survives it’s a nice light high ratio event with brutal temps. Yes I want a big dog but 2014 I got like 1.5 inches with temps in the 20s and the city was shut down for days



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Well, despite the initial warming, the 18 GFS turned out to be the coldest yet of the winter for the US! I mean this is off the charts insane, idiotic, stupid, criminal cold for the US the next 15 days overall on this run and perhaps about as cold a run as there has ever been for any part of winter!

Now let’s see how 18Z GEFS turns out. It, too, has the common initial warming, but it now looks like the cold may later catch up to the 12Z, the coldest GEFS of the winter to date. As I said, the odds are stacked for the 18Z GEFS to be warmer than 12Z for obvious reasons.
 
GaWx said:
Well, despite the initial warming, the 18 GFS turned out to be the coldest yet of the winter for the US! I mean this is off the charts insane, idiotic, stupid, criminal cold for the US the next 25 days overall on this run and perhaps about as cold a run as there has ever been for any part of winter!

Now let’s see how 18Z GEFS turns out. It, too, has the common initial warning, but it now looks like the cold may catch up to the 12Z, the coldest GEFS of the winter to date.
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Like I said yesterday, I'm more focused on getting the actual front clearing the coast inside the 5 day mark now. Then I may can bite on a storm because the airmass surely would support it. We're getting marginal close calls with this ---- airmass. But everyday the front is still 180 hrs out that gives me pause that when it finally gets here, and it will, it'll just be more marginal air.
 
Happy Hour GEFS: setting up for a possible CAD storm again for ~2/16-7. Also, although it started out a bit warmer than 12Z, it is making a run at being as cold as the 12Z run for the US as a whole with later days being significantly colder. If it does that, it will have beaten the odds since the 12Z run was the coldest this winter to date. Stay tuned!
 
It turns out that the Happy Hour GEFS against the odds came out colder for the US as a whole than the previously coldest run of the winter, the 12Z!

Highlights:
- BN in SE US 2/13-2/22 (end of run)
- Absolutely mind boggling cold at times Midwest, especially 2/7-8 and 2/12-15, N Rockies 2/8-13, and S Plains 2/14-6!
- Arctic high after Arctic high dropping down from Canada every few days.
- Increasing potential for CAD induced major ZR main CAD areas 2/16-7 with SE at the bottom of the low level cold feed.
 
GaWx said:
It turns out that the Happy Hour GEFS against the odds came out colder for the US as a whole than the previously coldest run of the winter, the 12Z!

Highlights:
- BN in SE US 2/13-2/22 (end of run)
- Absolutely mind boggling cold at times Midwest, especially 2/7-8 and 2/12-15, N Rockies 2/8-13, and S Plains 2/14-6!
- Arctic High after Arctic dropping down from Canada every few days.
- Increasing potential for CAD induced major ZR main CAD areas 2/16-7 with SE at the bottom of the low level cold feed.
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Could we be entering the next ice age ?
 
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