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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

This needs to work
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Storm5 said:
So much damn energy . One of these damn things is gonna produce
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It really wouldn't take much for the shortwave that rolled through Saturday morning to not dampen out as fast and bring actual snow into that fresh arctic air mass. The big takeaway, for now, is the TPV came east and didn't do a Friday night Euro on us.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow sub zero dews with tons of cold air everywhere. That looks like a colder version of Feb 2014
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I dont care what the 2m and precip maps say....Good luck kicking out that wedge! We haven't seen those type td in a very very long time.. parent high anchored in over PA...SHI* good luck...that is a recipe for super mega ice.
 
0z UKMET is also holding the TPV back and keeps the arctic cold well north through 144. Asks the SE if they want to torch temp wise.

To say the operational models are struggling would be nice to the word "struggling"
 
Well, currently forecast, as usual, we can't time anything right so we have retreating 850's as the storm gets here.


GFS_850TempForecast_MA_2021-02-07_00Z_FHr210-225_PW.gif


As a result, we are left with this frozen mess.


GFS_TotalFreezingRainFRAM_NC_2021-02-07_00Z_FHr258_PW.png


I mentioned the cold air retreating earlier as a possible issue.
 
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The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?
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When you say warmer, how much warmer? Is the front still pushing through next weekend or held back?

Thanks
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?
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I don't think I have seen the doc this wild, have you Larry? It is allllllll over the place.
 
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