Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[Downeastnc]

I mean literally if our TPV could move East and slow down we have the most favorable pattern in years with waves moving under, it’s just taking its sweet ass time

Right we are gonna get a good 7-14 day window for some serious fireworks, but damn if the models can figure out when that window is going to start...

 

[J.C.]

The good news is the west to east movement of the cold has not slowed down anymore in the past 24 hours.

 

[BufordWX]

Here comes another system. Lol

 

[whatalife]

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[SouthSideYankee]

Frozen precip in Florida?
View attachment 71965

That's actually pretty close to something. Need more interaction between both pieces to come together. Cold is there.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meanwhile the CMC is worse

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Now this can easily work . Just needs to survive

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Verbatim that looks like it would get sheared to hell and back. Will change 20 more times. Players are there no doubt.

 

[BufordWX]

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 71971

Looks more realistic for us.

 

[NCSNOW]

Here comes another system. LolView attachment 71969

It best hurry up. Once that hp hits the Atlantic,itll be return flow.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This run looks so good after day 10 lol. But that is a couple runs in a row with cold air coming in next Sunday-monday

 

[Parker]

I like that this run favors snow over ice. Not bad looks at all with cold in place.

 

[Storm5]

This run looks so good after day 10 lol. But that is a couple runs in a row with cold air coming in next Sunday-monday

Depends on location. Areas to the west did ok around day 7


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[Storm5]

Good thing the thread dates are 10-16 lol


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[Stormlover]

Depends on location. Areas to the west did ok around day 7


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yeah, some of these whining need to get off the thread to do it..again they act like they are the only ones on here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Maybe it’s for real this time lol

 

[Stormlover]

another big hit coming day after thanksgiving

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

yeah, some of these whining need to get off the thread to do it..again they act like they are the only ones on here

I think we all get caught up talking about our own location at times. I apologise

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

#LakesLow

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 71958View attachment 71959

This is actually still falling into the CPC’s guidance timeframe as well

 

[Stormlover]

total through noon on the 16th

 

[Stormlover]

I think we all get caught up talking about our own location at times. I apologise

understood, thanks

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So we gon just ignore the CMC ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hmmm

 

[BufordWX]

FWIW there is still big ice on the Canadian.

 

[Storm5]

So maybe we CAD the Thursday / Friday system and then the door is open from Saturday - Tuesday . Good with that


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[Arcc]

I don’t know why it’s always so shocking to all of us. The northern stream always always always is too progressive on the models and slows down closer the verification. We always see the big low over the NATL slow down and almost phase with the shortwave and smash NC with snow. Now it never does do that, but it always gets close enough to pop a coastal and cause tears.

 

[Storm5]

This is 2014 all over ago again. High ratio 1 maybe 2 inches with temps in the low 20s

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[Stormlover]

This is 2014 all over ago again. High ratio 1 maybe 2 inches with temps in the low 20s

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Yep, ratios of 20:1 into nw ala next saturday

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I don’t know why it’s always so shocking to all of us. The northern stream always always always is too progressive on the models and slows down closer the verification. We always see the big low over the NATL slow down and almost phase with the shortwave and smash NC with snow. Now it never does do that, but it always gets close enough to pop a coastal and cause tears.

Correct

 

[Tarheel1]

#LakesLowView attachment 71980

That’s the PV goober! That’s ok

 

[Rick]

Cmc is an ugly run gfs was a lot better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[BufordWX]

Win for @Brent on the Ukmet!
Edit: Although I should note upon further review most of this is likely sleet/ice as opposed to snow.

 

[Stormlover]

gefs mean is an ice storm late week

 

[Storm5]

gefs mean is an ice storm late week View attachment 71996

Looks like this run trended a little colder


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[JLL1973]

Gonna be way inside 240


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gefs mean is an ice storm late week View attachment 71996

why is the ensembles so different than the operational?

 

[Faco Thomas]

View attachment 71992

Still not enough for us in the Carolinas. However if we can keep those trend up for the 48-72 hours and really get the PV towards the Canadian/ Michigan/Wisconsin line, we might be able to get back in the game for a major winter storm. Not sure if we are going to be able to recover from todays horrible trends however.

 

[Stormlover]

The gefs mean is a wild ride..wave after wave of all types of precip coming along, this is going to be a wild ride with a stalled front and so much energy.

 

[Rick]

The gefs mean is a wild ride..wave after wave of all types of precip coming along, this is going to be a wild ride with a stalled front and so much energy.

Can you show this also the cmc ensembles please ?