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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
I think there is one thing certain about this upcoming pattern is the huge amount of baroclinicity that is going to happen somewhere. That battle between SE ridging and this vortex is going to dump massive amounts of multi day precip. I have no clue where the rain/frozen line will set up and neither do the models.
packfan98
Moderator
Round 3??? I see you there GFS trying to recreate 1960 in Flaming February.
I highly doubt there will be ZR way down here in SAV, which is very rare, as that GFS map shows. The 12Z GFS is very likely overdoing the cold, folks. Be wary. This is why folks get so pissed off later.
Storm5
Member
Gfs vs cmc
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SouthSideYankee
Member
Hoping next weekends storm sets us up for this period Could be the best set up we see before winters end climo-wise. I'm all in around the 16th-19th! Let's squash that SER.
Storm5
Member
CMC will look NOTHING like the gfs next weekend
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Sleet all way town to the Midlands of South Carolina on this. Even freezing all way down to Savannah. Too bad the GFS is still a outliner and other Models still got the PV further west.
Storm5
Member
So either gfs is gonna lead the way or it’s going to be yet another disaster caving to the much warmer euro .
The cmc gives the warmer euro solutions credit
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The cmc gives the warmer euro solutions credit
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol wtf is the CMC on
Storm5
Member
I guess it’s nice seeing icon with the same general look as the gfs
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I predict there will not be ZR way down here in SAV. Very high chance it is overdoing the surface cold in the south this run.
That is an insanely different look for two global models to have on only day 5. Just wow at the uncertainty in this pattern!
Snow_chaser
Member
Schools around here are on winter break the 15-19th, we bound to get winter weather when there out of school and not get snow days lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the CMC sometimes is extremely very far out in left field even inside day 5-6. I'll be hesitant to lean towards it if the Euro & UKMET side w/ the ICON & GFS
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The Euro definitely isn't as cold without glancing at the temp maps, but it's different compared to the CMC, at least at 0z that is.
Like maybe the CMC is saying that we're going to go into a Nina pattern or something but it's likely just going to wind up being in left field.
Like maybe the CMC is saying that we're going to go into a Nina pattern or something but it's likely just going to wind up being in left field.
I feel like that piece over BC could cutoff of under the AK ridge and back west enough to push our TPV SE faster. Models have been trending a bit on that energy cutting off and moving west under the AK ridge.
Stormlover
Member
Memphis NwS said last night that the Euro was the outlier and they weren't buying it
I agree that the cold is overdone with how far south it is in that frame and I too highly doubt Savannah is getting an ice storm. However, that map for the western 2/3 of the Carolinas and Northern GA is how I could see any storm looking in that time frame. There is some CAD with that look and with the snowpack in the NE, if we get good CAD set up, it could be a stronger one.