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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

mrdaddyman said:
I really hope we can trend this right on to sleet or snow. I do not want another December 2002 here.
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I'm no met, but I'm thinking snow is the least likely precip type this far East. This is starting to get a classic ice look for most of us East of the mtns. Don't bet money on it of course this far out, but I wouldn't bet against it either. Realistically I'm pulling for sleet or cold rain over no power.
 
Chazwin said:
I honestly could see us still continuing the wild swings on these op models for a couple days. That just seems to be theme right now.
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Yeah by Wed the models could as easily be back to the big dogs from last weeks runs or to cutters again.....for me IMBY and most of central and eastern NC Mon-Thur next week is best shot at a big dog I think....at least based on the modeling as it stands now...
 
Stormsfury said:
The Euro's pulling the damming high fairly steadily east... And warming things up rapidly locally in Lower SC....

Frames before that...the temps are stoutly cold, stoutly wedged... With 925mb at -5C... How rapidly it breaks the wedge down is suspect given trends the last two storm systems here have seen more evaporational cooling than forecast even in the warm sector... Early suspicions and red flags brought up... First, the Baja Bogdown (well slower than you'd expect plus timing of moisture usually is hours faster...)...
The resiliency of a reinforced QPF wedge just normally doesn't magically disappear... we're not talking about a bowl of Lucky Charms here
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Don’t models nearly always try to scour the wedge out while low level cold just sits like Kelley east of apps down they ATl (sometimes B’ham if strong enough wedge)
 
GaSnowhound said:
Don’t models nearly always try to scour the wedge out while low level cold just sits like Kelley east of apps down they ATl (sometimes B’ham if strong enough wedge)
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Yes... particularly with in-site wedges where rain reinforces the cold pocket as a parent high shifts away...

Also, a well established feed offsets latent heat release when a parent high is constantly feeding cold, dry air into an area where precip is falling into a fresh source feed.
 
While we are waiting for the 00z stuff, I'll share a few photos from my game cam in Craig county VA. We drove up yesterday after the failed storm here to grab the SD card. I literally deleted hundreds of blizzard type photos last night. I can't wait to be able to retire and build up there and have more of this.
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Anyway, I hope the colder trends continue tonight. Someone mentioned Feb 94 earlier and that was our last bad ice event. this setup feels similar.
 
Stormsfury said:
Yes... particularly with in-site wedges where rain reinforces the cold pocket as a parent high shifts away...

Also, a well established feed offsets latent heat release when a parent high is constantly feeding cold, dry air into an area where precip is falling into a fresh source feed.
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The way that cold is sitting in NY I would think it’s not just transient and therefore ups potential for the prolonged “fresh feed” u mention. Either way it just appears modeled (verbatim) to slide around apps into Ga/SC like slime. Seems like it would almost take LP cutting to our west to dislodge rapidly???
 
Had to do a double look. First time I have ever seen this but it appears NWS in Memphis did a copy and paste of Little Rocks AFD. Interesting to say the least. I guess in a nut shell it says "we dont know what the hell this thing is going to do".


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/

DISCUSSION...

A broad trough exists across much of the CONUS this afternoon. A
shortwave trough is embedded within the flow over the Central Plains
and this will bring a chance for rain to the area overnight.
Temperatures have struggled to reach forecast highs today north of
the slowly retreating warm front but clouds have cleared for most
areas south of Interstate 40. The aforementioned shortwave trough is
already producing some light showers over southeast MO and this will
begin to affect northeast AR and the Bootheel in the next few
hours.

Rain will spread south and east overnight but QPF looks to remain
very light at less than 1/10 inch. The good news is temperatures
will remain above freezing for most of the CWA but some locations
from Paragould to Tiptonville may be just cold enough for some
patchy, light freezing rain. Again, with marginal temperatures and
very light QPF, we`re not anticipating much in the way of impacts.
It will certainly be something to watch. As the shortwave trough
moves east tomorrow, the quasi-stationary front will waffle back to
the south. With weakening lift, we do anticipate a lull in the light
rain activity much of the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow are forecast
to range from the mid 30s in the northwest to the mid 60s in the
southeast. Needless to say, the bust-potential in this forecast is
high, depending on where the front ends up.

Isentropic ascent will begin to increase Tuesday night and Wednesday
ahead of the next shortwave trough. This will maintain rain chances
and widespread cloud cover over the top of the shallow arctic dome.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be a bit higher and we may again
see a period of light freezing rain in the northwest. There is a
greater potential for accumulations early Wednesday morning so we`ll
be keeping an eye on it very closely. However, the main concern
exists Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The cold air will begin to deepen slightly Wednesday night as the
leading edge of the cold dome slides farther south. In addition,
warm advection around 850 mb will result in a prominent warm nose,
perhaps as warm as 6-8C. This will promote full melting of any
falling dendrites in a classic freezing rain sounding. Surface
temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s along and north
of I-40 where accumulating ice will pose a potentially significant
hazard. As noted in collaboration with WPC, isentropic ascent will
be quite strong but wind barbs not being orthogonal to the pressure
countours results in weaker lift and reduced precipitation
intensity. This could enhance accumulations where as heavier precip
would result in more runoff.

Some sleet could mix in farther north where the cold air will be
deeper but precipitation types look to be predominiantly rain and
freezing rain (depending on surface temps). Using the 25th-75th
percentiles for accumulations, 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice looks
reasonable in northeast AR, the Bootheel, and northwest TN. A worst
case scenario (i.e. 90th percentile) is 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice along
and north of I-40. These accumulations would be very significant and
would result in widespread power outages and travel problems.

At this time, the primary concern is the lack of confidence in where
the freezing line will set up. As stated, right now Interstate 40
seems to be a good first guess. If this slips a bit farther south,
heavier ice amounts are possible. We`re not issuing a 5th period
Winter Storm Watch, but this may be needed tonight or tomorrow at
the latest should the trends hold.

This system finally moves east Thursday night, but that`s when the
really cold air is expected to finally make an arrival. Model
trends are converging on much colder air this weekend into early
next week. NBM high temperatures are in the 20s and 30s across most
of the area this weekend with overnight lows in the single digits in
some areas. We did keep overnight temperatures just a bit warmer
than this guidance given model performance over the past week or two
but it sure looks like the cold air is finally going to arrive. A
brief system may bring some additional rain/snow to the area this
weekend, but it doesn`t look like much at this time. We will be
dealing with some very low wind chill readings this weekend as well,
so make sure you get the coats out.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I’m not sure about this. The SER is going to flex. It’ll be an interesting battle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The one thing that is able to fight that back though is the blocking and that -NAO. It’s been muting the SER all winter. The big difference now is that this is the strongest cold push into the lower 48 we’ve seen all winter.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wow models are underdoing the cold out west bigly under hour 6 ! NAM for example View attachment 72887
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Yep. OUN and the models have been playing catch up with temperatures all day. Have a current low forecast at 22, but currently it is already 21. HRRR even has us dropping as low as 16-17 tonight and it barely gets us into the low 20s tomorrow. Earlier today some models had us getting near the freezing mark tomorrow, but I would say that’s pretty unlikely now. Even the Nam keeps us in the mid 20s now. The cold has definitely been greatly underestimated by the models so far.
 
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