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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

The 12Z GEFS, which is warmer than prior runs, says to toss the GFS idea of extreme cold in deep south TX/ZR and along the Gulf Coast. Don’t fall for the 12Z GFS, folks. The Euro/EPS, GEFS, and even the cold biased CMC are all saying don’t believe it. Believe it at the risk of getting pissed off when it very likely is proven to be way too cold.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the CMC sometimes is extremely very far out in left field even inside day 5-6. I'll be hesitant to lean towards it if the Euro & UKMET side w/ the ICON & GFS
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Speaking of the UKMET, I want that in our corner on day 5. Can't wait to see it posted.

It is of course not surprising to see some difference in sensible weather between models 5 days out, but I don't know if I've ever seen such disparity as this. One of those two is off its meds LOL. Of course, we toss the CMC!
 
One thing to keep in mind about this GEFS run is that it is now in that timeframe that it’s been wanting to flex the SER way too much, only to start correcting it weaker as we get closer.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS, which is warmer than prior runs, says to toss the GFS idea of extreme cold in deep south TX/ZR and along the Gulf Coast. Don’t fall for the 12Z GFS, folks. The Euro/EPS, GEFS, and even the cold biased CMC are all saying don’t believe it. Believe it at the risk of getting pissed off when it very likely is proven to be way too cold.
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Meh, the differences between the GFS & its ensemble mean are really small at day 5-6 and are what lead to the monster discrepancy in sfc impacts, if the vortex really is at least as far east as the longitude of Michigan, then the GFS operational cold probably isn't outlandish, if it's over Manitoba instead then yeah it's not happening. We still don't know which way this is gonna go despite a few runs of "x" model or ensemble going in some direction.

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GaWx said:
Anyone still believe the cold 12Z GFS? Don’t fall for its very likely BS. Look how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS:

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This minute change in the vortex over Ontario is all it took for that to happen. Even though the GEFS specifically has been getting worse for a few runs, it could easily change back like it has a bajillion times the past several days.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh138_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Meh, the differences between the GFS & its ensemble mean are really small at day 5-6 and are what lead to the monster discrepancy in sfc impacts, if the vortex really is at least as far east as the longitude of Michigan, then the GFS operational cold probably isn't outlandish, if it's over Manitoba instead then yeah it's not happening. We still don't know which way this is gonna go despite a few runs of "x" model or ensemble going in some direction.

View attachment 72495


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Nothing’s for certain. That being said, I have enough info to feel that this 12Z GFS is likely a sucker run.
 
GaWx said:
Nothing’s for certain. That being said, I have enough info to feel that this 12Z GFS is likely a sucker run.
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It could be but if the GFS's z500 verifies, the cold it's showing isn't crazy like you said earlier. The ensemble mean doesn't really discredit that because it's actually showing a different pattern which if it was on the operational, would have also been a lot warmer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It could be but if the GFS's z500 verifies, the cold it's showing isn't crazy like you said earlier. The ensemble mean doesn't really discredit that because it's actually showing a different pattern which if it was on the operational, would have also been a lot warmer.
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Oth, I think the GFS solution is losing credence pattern-wise because the TPV is slowing up inside day 4 over central-western Canada which would make its cold less believable, but if the vortex is further SE then sure it could happen. We're now almost 3 days out and it looks like the run-run variations are starting to converge on slower & more NW vortex in the short-range and this is propagating forward in the models. We were over western Ontario a few days ago, now Saskatchewan.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh84_trend.gif
 
Related to the GFS, I noticed this morning that even in the very short term (like 6 hours), it was way too cold in ORD and MSP. It had ORD well down into the -teens and MSP into the mid -20s as per the attached. In reality, ORD only went down to ~-7 and MSP was only down to ~-15. So, it significantly overdid the low level cold there this morning and that was only 6 hours out:

C5DF1F90-72EB-4D0B-8AC4-F7405C332582.png
 
KYweather said:
UKIE is a torch for all intents and purposes compared to other models. Super cold air hovers in the northern areas of country through next Sunday run verbatim.

Has the PV close to the CMC position.
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Not what I wanted to read LOL.

It's as though there is a subtle feature that the models disagree with happening around day four that leads to dramatically different outcomes. That these differences occur in the relatively short term of 4-5 days, I suppose we'll know which way next week goes soon.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Not what I wanted to read LOL.

It's as though there is a subtle feature that the models disagree with happening around day four that leads to dramatically different outcomes. That these differences occur in the relatively short term of 4-5 days, I suppose we'll know which way next week goes soon.
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I agree there's flies all up in the ointment something is going wrong will be interesting to find out mjo is probably part of it phase 7
 
GaWx said:
Despite the warmer 12Z GEFS and my feeling the 12Z GFS south cold is likely overdone, I’m still hopeful the 12Z Euro suite will not be as warm as the 0Z.
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That's the thing. We can't expect some big fantasy snowstorm for us on the 12Z, I just want to see it trend, even slightly, in the right direction. It's been so bad, that shouldn't be much too much to expect.
 
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