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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

yikes

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Still huge differences between the euro and gfs . Gfs has a weekend system while the euro crushed the vort down into Mexico


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packfan98 said:
Nah, it rains.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
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I think that’s just the model not being able to handle CAD well .. remember globals do bad with CAD the fact that the euro showed this much this far out .. very scary stuff .. that cold air isn’t going to move that fast if those temps and dews were accurate .. that’s solid cold air ..
 
The Euro's pulling the damming high fairly steadily east... And warming things up rapidly locally in Lower SC....

Frames before that...the temps are stoutly cold, stoutly wedged... With 925mb at -5C... How rapidly it breaks the wedge down is suspect given trends the last two storm systems here have seen more evaporational cooling than forecast even in the warm sector... Early suspicions and red flags brought up... First, the Baja Bogdown (well slower than you'd expect plus timing of moisture usually is hours faster...)...
The resiliency of a reinforced QPF wedge just normally doesn't magically disappear... we're not talking about a bowl of Lucky Charms here
 
Holy hell. It's time to buy a new generator lol

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JHS said:
This thing has Feb 1994 written all over it. A very serious situation for northern Miss, much of Tenn, and maybe into parts of AL. The cad areas of NC and SC could also have issues as well.
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You know the more I’m looking at these solutions, the more I see both a February 1994 and February 1996 with this set up. Both of those storms had the massive amounts of ice and sleet to the mid south and Tennessee valley, but they also saw the cold air build into the Carolinas from the NE like a CAD.
 
packfan98 said:
Nah, it rains.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
Click to expand...
If ridging to it's north and northeast doesn't hold the 50/50 in place, then confluence will relax over the NE and allow high pressure to scoot out. You can kind of see the break in the ridge in one of the 500 anomaly maps posted above.

This would create an insitu event and would lessen the wintry threat for many areas. Now the low still won't plow into the CAD, and I'm sure the model isn't respecting CAD enough at this lead. But we really need that low to move east more quickly.

The Euro used to have a bias of holding energy back too long, but I don't know if it really still does or if that's just legend at this point. If it is still true, then we could see a much larger and more widespread wintry threat develop, assuming the cold press being show is correct (and we know how that typically works out).
 
I think that look either the sfc low travels along I-10 over FL or miller B's out. I doubt it would do that...Either way...What a euro run...too bad I can't get to excited because its run to run consistency has been brutal!! I think there is a good shot for the Sunday system, euro trended better, GFS needs to be a bit south with it (ie GFS is NW, euro way south) and then the Tuesday system.. That would be the strongest wedge I have seen in many years.
 
OK. The big takeaway from the 12Z suite is there is consensus that our fickle TPV will head east toward the western Great Lakes by their useful range of 5 days. The amplitude and orientation yet to be determined. The long-postponed dump of some of the coldest air mass in years will dump deep into the US. Details beyond to follow with multiple ways for all areas to score either late week and or early next week. Smiles all around folks!
 
deltadog03 said:
I think that look either the sfc low travels along I-10 over FL or miller B's out. I doubt it would do that...Either way...What a euro run...too bad I can't get to excited because its run to run consistency has been brutal!! I think there is a good shot for the Sunday system, euro trended better, GFS needs to be a bit south with it (ie GFS is NW, euro way south) and then the Tuesday system.. That would be the strongest wedge I have seen in many years.
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A blend of the Euro and the GFS for the Sunday system could be glorious.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think that look either the sfc low travels along I-10 over FL or miller B's out. I doubt it would do that...Either way...What a euro run...too bad I can't get to excited because its run to run consistency has been brutal!! I think there is a good shot for the Sunday system, euro trended better, GFS needs to be a bit south with it (ie GFS is NW, euro way south) and then the Tuesday system.. That would be the strongest wedge I have seen in many years.
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Is the Sunday storm for the entire Southeast or Western SE or NC?
 
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