Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So much for La Niña keeping us dry.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
At this point, I don't think the cold front will ever clear coast in time and when/if it does, the cold air will be marginal enough to point we(shy of a major CAD event) will probably with a cold rain event anyway regardless of storm track. Major step back from the 12Z runs when the cold air was further east on the models.
Storm5
Member
Still interested here . Euro has the same energy just has the TPV further NW
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Broken024
Member
Gfs still dangling carrots in front of us
Andddd the 06z EPS is colder. Lol
There’s actually a strengthening CAD signal around the medium range 
there isn’t anything positive about the extended...except what will be the increasing temps
You can see by day 5 a trough forming in the west
the PV we wanted to slide East finally does but is weaker and we have a deep trough in the west which builds ridge in east.
writing is on the wall for Feb
You can see by day 5 a trough forming in the west
the PV we wanted to slide East finally does but is weaker and we have a deep trough in the west which builds ridge in east.
writing is on the wall for Feb
Classic cold air damming pattern
ugly wedge pattern, sigh, it’s not gonna be warm enough to enjoy, but not cold enough to have wintry wx, just enough to ruin your day 
Im not buying what the European model is selling for a minute 80 percent of its data was lost so it could be out to lunch even snowbirdbob said this
Tarheelwx
Member
Put a 1034 hp over PA and you get something we haven’t seen all winter.
TW
TW
A week ago this weekends event wasn’t on the map really...and the next 10 days there be cold dumped into the conus so you just never know.
Yeah it wouldn’t shock me if we get another slop event with CAD, it’s been the theme of this winter for sure, really would be nice if the arctic front can pass this living barrier known as the SE and we get a well timed wave with a TPV around the lakes, I’m tired of marginal
SWVAwxfan
Member
As terrible as the models have been. It's too early to punt February. This constant flip flopping back and forth of the models is maddening to say the least.
MichaelJ
Member
Yep, the models seem to be warning us that the cold cold air just can't quite get here. Still plenty of time to change but I do not like the look of the EURO and think we will see either the GFS moving towards it or the EURO totally flipping. If we do go 5-10 below normal around the 1st of March, it is nowhere near as meaningful for us as that difference would mean in Jan/early Feb. As for all these ice events being shown instead of Snow, welcome to La Nina and phase 7 of the MJO
Ultimately I think our best chance for a major storm for the Carolinas and N. GA this year is going to have to involve some CAD. I’ve never bought into the extreme cold for the SE that some models runs have thrown around anymore than I buy into the model runs that are showing huge ridging and all out torch in the east. I do however can imagine a scenario in the next couple weeks with all the energy flying around were we time something well enough to get a decent winter storm for the western 2/3 of the Carolinas. I’ve said it plenty, but one constant that keeps showing and verifying is that
-NAO and -AO. As long as it’s there, don’t expect anything well above average.