Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[deltadog03]

Wow sub zero dews with tons of cold air everywhere. That looks like a colder version of Feb 2014

I dont care what the 2m and precip maps say....Good luck kicking out that wedge! We haven't seen those type td in a very very long time.. parent high anchored in over PA...SHI* good luck...that is a recipe for super mega ice.

 

[KYweather]

0z UKMET is also holding the TPV back and keeps the arctic cold well north through 144. Asks the SE if they want to torch temp wise.

To say the operational models are struggling would be nice to the word "struggling"

 

[accu35]

I guess 0z gefs is delayed but not denied

 

[accu35]

Anyone have gefs map? College DuPage stuck

 

[KYweather]

Here is the 500 MB pattern at 8 PM Friday night-hr 120

 

[KYweather]

Run to run anamoly vs 12z for example is back to being warmer as the change.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man if this can stick around, this is that “1800s back when CAD highs used to be in PA and not in Canada like the 2000s) type stuff

 

[mrdaddyman]

Well, currently forecast, as usual, we can't time anything right so we have retreating 850's as the storm gets here.





As a result, we are left with this frozen mess.





I mentioned the cold air retreating earlier as a possible issue.

 

[deltadog03]

12z vs 00z so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Btw the CMC OP doesn’t match its ensemble

 

[deltadog03]

 

[deltadog03]

 

[accu35]

Euro looks gfs like so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And back the other way, lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I smell the GFS being wrong here with its progressive bias

 

[snowvol]

I smell the GFS being wrong here with its progressive bias View attachment 72397View attachment 72398

Or euro playing catch up. Euro hasn't exactly been great lately.

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?

 

[J.C.]

The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?

When you say warmer, how much warmer? Is the front still pushing through next weekend or held back?

Thanks

 

[GaWx]

When you say warmer, how much warmer? Is the front still pushing through next weekend or held back?

Thanks

About 20 warmer for 2/15 highs with 60s-70s instead of only 40s-50s!

 

[deltadog03]

The 0Z Doc is much warmer than the 12Z, which itself was much colder than yesterday’s 0Z. So, no surprise at all. Flip flopping back and forth is common.

Now let’s see if the 0Z EPS is likewise much warmer than its prior run, which was way colder than yesterday’s 0Z. That’s obviously most likely through at least day 10 at this point. We’ll know within the hour.

Isn’t model watching fun? It sure isn’t boring seeing these wild run to run swings!

Any guesses for the 12Z Doc?

I don't think I have seen the doc this wild, have you Larry? It is allllllll over the place.