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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

accu35 said:
Yup. It's not all about the CADs. TX/LA/MS and Alabama are in a good setup this time.
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Remember we ALL thought we were sitting good a few days ago. All I am saying is with all these moving pieces we should probably temper our expectations a bit until we are within 3 days or so of an actual storm. We are going to see a lot of fluctuation these next few days.
 
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Faco Thomas said:
If that happens, where the Arctic boundary never clears the SE coast, it might be time to call it quits for people east of Appalachians. I hope the GFS and the GFES are wrong the SE ridge being that much of factor past the 5-6 day range and more cold air is able to bleed east of the Mountains.
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The overall theme this winter is that closer we get in the time period the SER comes more muted. I hope the moves pick up on this very soon! Let's push this front to the coast!
 
ryan1234 said:
Remember we ALL thought we were sitting good a few days ago. All I am saying is with all these moving pieces we should probably temper all expectations a bit until we are within 3 days or so of an actual storm. We are going to see a lot of fluctuation these next few days.
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Oh yeah, I totally understand. I hope we all score
 
accu35 said:
Round 2 coming in better
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_180.png
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Member 20 isn’t much different from yesterday. Very wild and impressive seeing that member show out


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BelmontWX79 said:
TPV swinging through the Great Lakes by the end of the UKMET run. Big Improvement! ?
View attachment 72706
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Wow!? I actually like the UKMET progression of the PV more than the GFS and the GEFS progression of the PV .Even people east of the Appalachians might extremely cold(which would increase the chance of us of not having to relay on CAD) if the UKMET is correct.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Now East of the apps, that’s a good look ?
Want a parent S/W more south tho View attachment 72708View attachment 72709
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Good trends.......us east of the mts folks will be fine, I am still 100% on board with my at least 6" or more call for MBY next week.....this is gonna happen, going to be a epic period with 2-4 waves for a lot of the South...could be one of those rare snow on snow events....

Need the Euro to continue the hot streak......
 
deltadog03 said:
If the GFS didn't squash the TPV on the north side of the lakes and kept pushing south or SE, then east of the mtns and south (GA) would get in on the fun as well.
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Appreciate you chasing/chiming In. I know its always if and buts where cherry an nuts...
But if we can get just a couple more favorable wiggles to get the TPV in perfect spot, a lot of folks really could score multiple times over a 10 day stretch. So close here.
 
NWMSGuy said:
GFS advertising a quarter inch of ice for my location while the Canadian is advertising over half an inch. Wondering when or if Memphis will pull the trigger before long for advisories, etc.
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NWMS Guy, I as well live in Senatobia, I don’t think Memphis will do anything until they see the Euro come on board, which could very well be the case at the 12z run, I tend to think Memphis will play this on the conservative side because of the model disagreement.
 
I'll be visiting family in Jackson MS Friday afternoon, leaving before the ice and snow comes. I guess I should be ok until Saturday evening?
 
Storm5 said:
Not with this setup


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I'd rather be living in Hattiesburg than Athens Ga. for this period. That arctic front and its low-level cold air at least for a time is going to get nearly stalled out west of the mountains with multiple opportunities from NW Ga through Texas for some seriously impactful winter weather.

I wouldn't rule out Lake Ponchatrain lake effect given this level of cold LOL.
 
There is so many peace’s flying around on the models. There having a hard time digesting the data. Literally spitting out different looks every 6hrs. The peace’s are there and someone will cash in on something substantial in the south. Best chance looks to be west of the mountains mid south area. All though the chance is there for about everyone


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Jessy89 said:
There is so many peace’s flying around on the models. There having a hard time digesting the data. Literally spitting out different looks every 6hrs. The peace’s are there and someone will cash in on something substantial in the south. Best chance looks to be west of the mountains mid south area. All though the chance is there for about everyone


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I'm afraid this one may be an ice storm around here, but let's hope not!

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Tobiewx said:
NWMS Guy, I as well live in Senatobia, I don’t think Memphis will do anything until they see the Euro come on board, which could very well be the case at the 12z run, I tend to think Memphis will play this on the conservative side because of the model disagreement.
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As they should as well as pretty much all NWS. Being conservative and erring on the side of NOTHING works out 90 percent of the time...plus people are A LOT more forgiving if NWS has to ADD snow/ice ❄to the forecast vs taking it away after hyping people up ?
 
Bsud said:
I'm afraid this one may be an ice storm around here, but let's hope not!

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I know it sounds horrible for me to want a Ice storm. But I do enjoy the beauty of ice all over all the trees. I’d always rather have snow but ice is better then cold rain


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Tobiewx said:
NWMS Guy, I as well live in Senatobia, I don’t think Memphis will do anything until they see the Euro come on board, which could very well be the case at the 12z run, I tend to think Memphis will play this on the conservative side because of the model disagreement.
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Great to see someone from the area on the board! Agreed with regards to Memphis FO. Looks like we will be cutting this close to go time.
 
If and it’s a BIG if, the models are trying to latch onto a trend now, it really wouldn’t shock me at all if areas even east of the mountains get into a winter storm in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. I suspect this would be more of Sleet/Ice, possibly mixed with some snow depending on how strong a CAD that can set up. There is just so many different waves flying around that I think it’s going to be really difficult for the models to latch onto specific storms until about 3 days. The CAD signal is definitely there starting Friday.
 
Chazwin said:
If and it’s a BIG if, the models are trying to latch onto a trend now, it really wouldn’t shock me at all if areas even east of the mountains get into a winter storm in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. I suspect this would be more of Sleet/Ice, possibly mixed with some snow depending on how strong a CAD that can set up. There is just so many different waves flying around that I think it’s going to be really difficult for the models to latch onto specific storms until about 3 days. The CAD signal is definitely there starting Friday.
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Still plenty of time for this to produce a big SE winter storm. The east trends are just beginning as has been the theme all winter. Things look good west of really Nashville right now but all it'll take is a couple more pulls east and we are in business.
 
lexxnchloe said:
very disappointing with everyone talking about snow and cold. Usually the southern part of a snow shield doesnt actualy occur.
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As things stand now much of the precip on the south of the heaviest snow accumulations shown here is probably ice and hopefully sleet. One of my main concerns all along is someone gets a major ice storm followed my bitter cold temperatures.
 
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