Oh wow, and thats a week from Monday. Sounds like it is similar to the CMC, I really wonder if this boundary is ever going to make its way through.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Oh wow, and thats a week from Monday. Sounds like it is similar to the CMC, I really wonder if this boundary is ever going to make its way through.
Never recall this degree of swings from Doc to Doc and also from Doc ens to Doc ens! Maybe it can’t handle well this very anomalous pattern?
BNAwx
Member
The Euro seems to have trouble finding the cold lately. It could very well be correct but the run to run swings it’s having should be a red flag.
Jon
Member
GFS is having similar run to run swings but for some reason people are ignoring it because it’s colder maybe? Compare hour 174 on the 0z to hour 180 on the 18z. It’s having trouble with the TPV lobe as well, run to run. The GEFS actually went toward the Euro EPS tonight
Well, while still very cold and much colder than the Euro suite, the 0Z GEFS wasn’t nearly as cold as the 18Z/12Z.
Meanwhile, as the 0Z EPS comes out, it is going to end up a good bit warmer run overall vs the 12Z. However, the good news is that thanks to a somewhat colder late part of the run, it won’t be as warm as the awful EPS of 24 hours ago. And now we can hope for a flop back in the colder direction at 12Z. Fingers and toes crossed!
Any guesses about the next EPS run? Will 12Z flip back? Will it maintain the current run’s warming? Will it be even warmer?
If models didn’t flip so much, model watching would be pretty boring imo.
BNAwx
Member
So, here’s the final verdict on the 0Z EPS: it went back warmer than the 12Z by a good bit, but it only went about 2/3 of the way back toward the 0Z of yesterday for the US as a whole. Ok, the hope now for the next run is for a reversal of that 2/3 warming back to the level of cold in the 12Z run of yesterday. Isn’t model watching fun? I'm already ready to see the 6Z GFS! Fingers crossed!
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I think if the 12z GFS caves tomorrow and delays the cold out past ten days again it’s safe to say there are some errors being digested by the models and it’s never getting here. Hopefully that isn’t the case though.
There appears to be systematic error that results in delay, delay, delay with this highly anomalous pattern of strong -AO/south displaced PV. What might that cause be? Could it be the very warm W Pacific rearing its ugly head again? Could it also be the influence of La Nina, which typically doesn't like strong Midwest cold to make it far into the SE?
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Even though the 0Z EPS is warmer, it maintains a threat of ZR 2/16-7 for the main CAD areas fairly similar to the 1Z EPS. So, that period still bears close watching.
Anyone have ZR and other wintry precip for the individual members?
Anyone have ZR and other wintry precip for the individual members?
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Concerning coupled with that little flex of the ridge. Albeit the euro is worlds apart from the GFS..
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
06z gfs is once again delayed on the "Arctic outbreak". I really do not believe it's going to happen.
I guess the one thing that puts up red flags to me about the Euro is it’s insistence on some of these runs on wanting to bring a multi-day torch to the entire southeast. Ever since this -NAO has been established, that just hasn’t happened. Couple it now with the strong -AO. With that said, I don’t really buy into the extreme cold that the GFS keeps wanting to push southeast... which is fine because you don’t need extreme cold for wintry weather.
