Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting to see how a stronger system off the NE tugs the TPV

 

[Shaggy]

So I'm not suggesting we are seeing this, but assuming that we are seeing the scenario where models lose the idea and bring it back late when would we expect to start seeing those trends?

 

[Rick]

So I'm not suggesting we are seeing this, but assuming that we are seeing the scenario where models lose the idea and bring it back late when would we expect to start seeing those trends?

Pretty much when one model caves gfs or euro we should know then

 

[Rain Cold]

So I'm not suggesting we are seeing this, but assuming that we are seeing the scenario where models lose the idea and bring it back late when would we expect to start seeing those trends?

This tends to happen with individual storms or storm threats, but here we're talking about fairly large changes in the pattern. If we go by seasonal trends, we can guess that the models are too warm or too cold in the LR. My expectation is that we trend back toward near or slightly below normal...just enough to support a miserable cold rain.

 

[Jon]

Remember that time we thought it was going to be cold next week...then it was just pushed back a little and it was going to be cold the 10th through the 15th...



View attachment 72409


View attachment 72408

Remember when people were concerned it was going to be too cold for snow?

 

[Shaggy]

This tends to happen with individual storms or storm threats, but here we're talking about fairly large changes in the pattern. If we go by seasonal trends, we can guess that the models are too warm or too cold in the LR. My expectation is that we trend back toward near or slightly below normal...just enough to support a miserable cold rain.

Yeah but the storm in late January saw major changes to the pattern that brought the storm further south as we saw major SE shifts to the northern energy which shoved our storm further south.

 

[KyloG]

Remember when people were concerned it was going to be too cold for snow?

Dang....trolling on a Sunday. I like it. ?

 

[Webberweather53]

Crazy to think the TPV is actually in the CONUS this run east of the Rockies and we still don't have much to show for it down here

 

[Stormsfury]

Euro ensemble now showing an east based -NAO pumping up... Hmmm.. 10 to 1 that retrogrades...into a more ideal spot in 3 days... ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Crazy to think the TPV is actually in the CONUS this run east of the Rockies and we still don't have much to show for it down here

View attachment 72433

We have something to show for it... a multiday cold rain wedge

 

[Webberweather53]

We have something to show for it... a multiday cold rain wedge View attachment 72434View attachment 72435

Cmon bring those 60s one more row of counties NW

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Where’s the warm sector when you need it

 

[accu35]

If I can score Sunday/Monday system then I'm good until next winter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So far Thursday/Friday/Saturday has a useless CAD wedge on the icon

 

[Webberweather53]

Our vortex to decides to shoot east, and then lifts north into central Quebec.

 

[deltadog03]

Crazy to think the TPV is actually in the CONUS this run east of the Rockies and we still don't have much to show for it down here

View attachment 72433

I think once it does and if we can time that and a wave coming in from our SW we could have a shot....why can't we just have more ridging on the west coast right now? LOL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Normally that ridge position in Alaska is one of our bests

 

[Webberweather53]

Don't worry! Here comes another TPV lobe diving across the pole into northern Canada this run. This one probably goes to the western US too

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That makes Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday under a CAD on the ICON, why

 

[deltadog03]

Normally that ridge position in Alaska is one of our bests View attachment 72440

The scary part is that could turn into a wall to wall cold if done right.