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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I don't think the EURO projection is right because it holds back the system in the SW too long. In previous set-ups like this, the progression is almost always faster than what the EURO projects. I think the biggest concern is whether the HP to our North can stay locked in enough to meet the system or if it races out and leaves us mostly with a cold rain. I have a suspicion that western NC, Ga and SC are in for a dangerous icing event. Further West will have the best chances for snow IMO
 
I'd pay attention to the vortex over Nova Scotia that MyFroTho posted... If seasonal trends mean anything here, I would expect to see that retrograde SW over the next couple of runs... If the guidance just doesn't reset and give us some new look to ponder in the next 6 to 12 hours..
 
FFC sounds as confused as we do, lol:

“Models diverge for Saturday night and Sunday with the approach of
another wave. The ECMWF is showing a rapidly moving wave pushing
east of the forecast area early Sunday...while the GFS has a closed
low over GA. We could either have a significant precipitation event
or little to nothing. Given the below freezing temperatures forecast
for Saturday night...have tried to compromise for now with low pops
across the area and some light snow possible for the far north.”
 
BullCityWx said:
Is Orange and Durham counties not part of the triangle?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Typical theme this winter has been NW of the triangle for most wintery performance, but I could see this trending to heavy sleet to include the triangle and other points possibly south and east. Real cold on the map this time
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I saw that and just thinking, not gonna sweat the details this far out.... all I need to know is a monster HP in the NE with single digit to zero DPs. No way we rain with that setup
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Yep no way. Would have to be ice or sleet IF the big high is there with those dp's. The ice would last a long time too if the temps started out at 22 despite ZR being a warming process. It would drop down to 15-17 before slowly going back up and the favored CAD areas probably would not get close to freezing until the event was over.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
FFC sounds as confused as we do, lol:

“Models diverge for Saturday night and Sunday with the approach of
another wave. The ECMWF is showing a rapidly moving wave pushing
east of the forecast area early Sunday...while the GFS has a closed
low over GA. We could either have a significant precipitation event
or little to nothing. Given the below freezing temperatures forecast
for Saturday night...have tried to compromise for now with low pops
across the area and some light snow possible for the far north.”
Click to expand...

Well if FFC is frustrated as I am it makes me feel a little better
 
From FFC AFD this afternoon

Operational output from the medium-range models remain in fairly
good agreement through the period concerning the larger-scale upper
pattern, keeping the region in primarily zonal to southwesterly
upper flow. This keeps the bulk of the coldest air west/northwest of
the state with above normal temperatures indicated through the
majority of the workweek. Some cooling noted for the end of the week
and into early next week, but still, the heart of the colder airmass
remains to the west. Still a fair amount of divergence amongst the
models with respect to the smaller-scale features providing some
uncertainty about the timing and path of the higher precipitation
amounts. Will need to keep a close eye on some potential for wintry
weather across north Georgia for the upcoming weekend and early next
week, but confidence continues to be somewhat lacking for now
considering the wide ensemble spread in most of the models. Overall,
not a lot of change on the overall trends in the extended forecast
grids from recent runs.
 
Stormsfury said:
The Euro's pulling the damming high fairly steadily east... And warming things up rapidly locally in Lower SC....

Frames before that...the temps are stoutly cold, stoutly wedged... With 925mb at -5C... How rapidly it breaks the wedge down is suspect given trends the last two storm systems here have seen more evaporational cooling than forecast even in the warm sector... Early suspicions and red flags brought up... First, the Baja Bogdown (well slower than you'd expect plus timing of moisture usually is hours faster...)...
The resiliency of a reinforced QPF wedge just normally doesn't magically disappear... we're not talking about a bowl of Lucky Charms here
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Yep. I know card subject to change needs to be in big bold flashing lights but taking the euro at face value, Considering this would be a true arctic airmass, wetbulbs would be extremely low and the idea the airmass would be quickly scoured out or latent heat release would do its thing quickly is borderline silly.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol that SE Canada vortex position on the EPS is just like December 2002, different Look out west tho
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That's scary. Is there any way to avoid an ice storm in the SE at this point? I hope for snow, dry, sleet, or rain (in that order). We definitely don't need more rain. Maybe the low can stay suppressed and give more sleet and snow than freezing rain for most of us?
 
packfan98 said:
That's scary. Is there any way to avoid an ice storm in the SE at this point? I hope for snow, dry, sleet, or rain (in that order). We definitely don't need more rain. Maybe the low can stay suppressed and give more sleet and snow than freezing rain for most of us?
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For rain, a SE Canada vortex that departs quicker (would just mostly be cold rain)
For IP/Snow, a parent shortwave that tracks farther south sort like December 2018 instead of trying to cut up to our west 9D48E490-78D0-4846-88BD-29B8DF7C0F08.png735C73BE-77A3-49CD-BFC0-EEC50EC977D1.png708A7828-48FC-40CE-921C-1403F95DEAE8.gif
 
lexxnchloe said:
Thats less snow than earlier. In reality with the way things work out there is no snow in NC.
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We're looking at pattern recognition not so much snow maps. They are pretty much useless this far out. If we did, as has been stated before CLT would have well over 30 inches by now.
 
Poop!
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
NWMSGuy said:
EURO keeps frozen North and West of Memphis again this run. Close but not close enough.
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That’s the way we want it if it’s zr. Keep the heavy ZR just north of us and then let the real cold air slide south east after the precip clears the area. Then hopefully pop a snow storm over the weekend And score big!
 
iGRXY said:
Wonder how much further south we can trend this
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I think it can keep going. Decent HP placement but I think what's an awesome element here is the snowpack up top. The storm before this one will help out even more with the snowpack, that will do wonders in enhancing the cold air. I think this trends all the way to CLT.
 
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