iGRXY
Member
A lot more can go wrong for that area. Things have to be timed perfectly for areas west of the Apps.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
You would have loved the winters we had in the late 70's/early 80's in Birmingham.
December 2005... we’ve been saved by sleet a lot of times since then
Initial LP placement is good but would tend to ride up inside the coast unless that HP comes east more and shunts the LP more ene
LovingGulfLows
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With those temps and a deep, low snowgrowth layer, you'd have to think snow ratios would be between 15:1 and 20:1. Even with .3 QPF, that could easily be between 4.5-6 inches of snow.
I have a feeling after all is said and done with this pattern, you and I are going to wish the Appalachians didn't exist. La. Ms, Ala, and Tn peeps have to be in weenie heaven.
#winteriscoming 
BufordWX
Member
GFS has over a foot here looking at the Kuchera ratio.
12Z GFS again has ZR at SAV. While very rare, this colder trend of the other models since 12Z yesterday along with the sub -5 AO progged for ~2/10-1 (hasn’t been a single day of sub -5 AO since Dec of 2010!!) tells me not to discount the possibility of something very rare like that.
Also, we’re really not in the range yet that the GFS is going to pick up well on CAD. The signal for it has been there for a few days in the ensembles. Now if the deeper cold air is available to tap into....
Right and if we swing the TPV a bit south over the GL instead just north. The whole board is going to be hoppin
CMC is finally getting a clue with its thick ass head 
Flotown
Member
anybody got sleet totals on that dat night system gfs showing?
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhhhh, Only thing killing us is the TPV being modeled too far west and that is trending further east. CAD is trending colder and colder now and that is almost the most sure fire thing to get winter weather in the southeast instead of relying on HP funneling down from the midwest where it doesn't either shred the wave to pieces or actually comes far enough south to bring in enough cold air. Guess my point is there are way more variables west of the apps where things have to be perfect. CAD is more common and trends better the closer you get to it. Only problem is the most common precip type is ice and that's what I think will likely be the end result out of this.
BufordWX
Member
GFS has 4 straight days of highs under 10 for OKC starting this weekend. That is straight up insanity. Although if we get the snow cover it’s showing it’s probably possible.
Texas may turn into a glacier per GFS.
Warm regards
Warm regards
???
Ron Burgundy
Member
It’s almost as if the models had the storm in the long range, lost it in the mid range and are picking it back up again in the short range. If only someone had informed us of this possibility! ?
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LovingGulfLows
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Things are trending better for the western parts of the South(and naturally better for us downstream as well). I think as long as the TPV moves east, they'll definitely get something wintry. I already thought days ago, they're in a much better spot than GA/Carolinas are when it comes to waves diving under the ridge. I think the thing we all wanted to see the most was a PV in southeastern Canada or over the great lakes instead of western Canada and that is happening.
Overall, even though it isn't showing any snow or sleet or ice over my area yet, I'm pleased with what I'm seeing.
Look out. Coastal, engage.
Did we simply just get played again into thinking we were going to get warm ?? I took the bait too ?? I should have known that our storms .. our big storms.. usually get lost in long range-medium range and get found again short- medium range .. I guess we also have had very unfortunate forecast conditions and variables such as that .. but wow this is turning into the King Kong trends
Feb 16’ish looking very interesting for CAD
Storm5
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Eastern area potential would be after the front pushes through. Western areas as the initial Arctic front stalls west of the mountains. Low forming and riding the boundary as it continues to move eastward.
I think so but we’ll see.
Jessy89
Member
Isn’t that similar to what happen this past Saturday?
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NWMSGuy
Member
GFS advertising a quarter inch of ice for my location while the Canadian is advertising over half an inch. Wondering when or if Memphis will pull the trigger before long for advisories, etc.
I think this might be a little different. This airmass (as modeled at 12z) puts a lot more in play.
East of the mountains is going to have a hard time scoring with this look. That's a lot of cold rain for us. Fortunately, this is the Canadian and it is still trying to figure out where the TPV is going.
For areas east for the mountains were gonna have to time a vortex exiting off under the -NAO block then set up cold air damming, it isn’t a snow setup tbh but ice/sleet
Storm5
Member
I get that I was talking about the everything has to be perfect comment for areas west of the apps
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LovingGulfLows
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It's going to be heartbreaking if this arctic boundary stalls right along the apps. I really really hope it doesn't or once again, I'll be on the outside looking in.
BelmontWX79
Member
TPV swinging through the Great Lakes by the end of the UKMET run. Big Improvement! ?
If that happens, where the Arctic boundary never clears the SE coast, it might be time to call it quits for people east of Appalachians. I hope the GFS and the GFES are wrong the SE ridge being that much of factor past the 5-6 day range and more cold air is able to bleed east of the Mountains.