Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[DixieBlizzard]

Sry for the dumb question. But where are the cad areas?

In the Carolinas, from GSP to RDU N&W.


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Cold Air Damming: Setup, Forecast Methods/Challenges for the Eastern US

www.theweatherprediction.com

@Flo Here's a good read on the subject.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Now we're talking...maybe. Just maybe.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We're not getting this look again.

IDK, I still think it's plausible. We're really not too far from something similar playing out Sunday-Monday.

 

[Winter Storm]

Icon looks good for early next week. Hope it's a trend.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

During the strongest CAD it can go well past the ATL metro and into AL. Although, I am not sure how often that translates to winter wx for those areas. Especially western GA and AL.

Not often but when it does, it can be brutal pretty far west. At least in the 80's and early 2000's, it used to be.

 

[deltadog03]

Ridge looks taller on West Coast so far.
6z vs 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[deltadog03]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like a little bit of a better push with ice in Extreme Northwest MS at hour 72 to 78 than what the 06z was showing.

 

[deltadog03]

If these trends keep up, it's going to be really bad. CAD is almost always going to be undermodeled at this range.

2m temps always as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some differences between this time frame (ICON more stout) but geez any wedging and we tap into that deeper cold source

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[deltadog03]

I like these trends so far yall!!
6z vs 12z run

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 72682

Not sure I like the look of the S/W crashing into the Pac NW like that. Would ideally like the western ridge intact and taller and inland a bit from the west coast.

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS is now clearly going to be the coldest in many runs!

 

[Storm5]

That energy over Cali

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[Myfrotho704_]

Now it’s really reflecting

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice 850 trend!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Incoming

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Incoming View attachment 72690

Maybe ice, but no snow this run. Better though!

 

[ryan1234]

Some differences between this time frame (ICON more stout) but geez any wedging and we tap into that deeper cold source View attachment 72683View attachment 72684

Yup! And this time we actually have snowpack to our north. Something that we've been missing since December. Of course this could all turn into a cold rain but I have a sneaking suspicion that this go around that won't be the case.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run isn’t far off from yesterday’s 12z

 

[Storm5]

Boom boom ??


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[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow

 

[BufordWX]

Single digit temperature snowstorm for @Brent and me. Lol

 

[Bham 99]

Not often but when it does, it can be brutal pretty far west. At least in the 80's and early 2000's, it used to be.

I remember probably 15 years ago that Birmingham got a small ice storm because of CAD.

 

[Storm5]

That’s a big winter storm on day six gfs for western areas


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[Storm5]

Lol round two ?

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[iGRXY]

Still think the CAD areas are in the best position to see something frozen. The GFS is awful at picking up CAD and it is pretty close already.

 

[NWMSGuy]

That’s a big winter storm on day six gfs for western areas


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Looks really good! Will be fun to track if this holds.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

]l

Sort of like a prophet huh. Of course, I'm still with hopes for early next week in MBY.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

The cold helps but ratios are dependent upon other factors too.

Is it possible to have super cold temps like 0 and still have low ratios under 10 ?

 

[Storm5]

Jesus the gfs is cold AF


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[Flotown]

that look would bury my area in sleet

 

[accu35]

Still think the CAD areas are in the best position to see something frozen. The GFS is awful at picking up CAD and it is pretty close already.

This is not only for the CAD areas but looks great for area west of the apps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can we push that ridge off the west coast further East please ?

 

[Shaggy]

Certainly an improvement but I'd like to see that 1050 high over Iowa.

 

[Chazwin]

No, in 2003, Charlotte had a storm where the ratios were 49 to 1.That is the driest snow I have seen. 8.5 niches and you could walk through it without picking up your feet. Used a leaf blower to clean the drive.

I had almost forgotten about that one...that thing was a clipper on steroids!!! Even still those kind of ratios are so rare in the south