Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS is having family issues with its own ensemble

 

[SnowNiner]

for the CAD setup, many members show something, even with H5 looking worse View attachment 72848View attachment 72849View attachment 72850View attachment 72852

Yeah, thanks. A lot of those look like cutters though.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Another thing trending to ice/even colder rain !!! Yay

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Yeah, thanks. A lot of those look like cutters though.

5/30 is a lot?

 

[mrdaddyman]

Another thing trending to ice/even colder rain !!! Yay View attachment 72860

I really hope we can trend this right on to sleet or snow. I do not want another December 2002 here.

 

[SnowNiner]

5/30 is a lot?

Of the ones that brought meaningful frozen precip. Just off a quick glance. Didn't look like many were from storms in the gulf....could be wrong.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Of the ones that brought meaningful frozen precip. Just off a quick glance. Didn't look like many were from storms in the gulf....could be wrong.

Well, 13/30 show some kind of frozen for NGA. Pretty similar for NC. Don’t see a lot of cutters IMO.

 

[accu35]

One thing for sure big cold is coming

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

I really hope we can trend this right on to sleet or snow. I do not want another December 2002 here.

I'm no met, but I'm thinking snow is the least likely precip type this far East. This is starting to get a classic ice look for most of us East of the mtns. Don't bet money on it of course this far out, but I wouldn't bet against it either. Realistically I'm pulling for sleet or cold rain over no power.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro just caved to the GFS lol

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Euro just caved to the GFS lol View attachment 72869View attachment 72870

Its been doing that all season.

 

[Chazwin]

I honestly could see us still continuing the wild swings on these op models for a couple days. That just seems to be theme right now.

 

[Downeastnc]

I honestly could see us still continuing the wild swings on these op models for a couple days. That just seems to be theme right now.

Yeah by Wed the models could as easily be back to the big dogs from last weeks runs or to cutters again.....for me IMBY and most of central and eastern NC Mon-Thur next week is best shot at a big dog I think....at least based on the modeling as it stands now...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

winner

 

[Nomanslandva]

Its been doing that all season.

Off hour EURO is super jumpy. Even in the short range it seems to take big swings. Well Hell, everything is taking huge swings this year but ...

 

[Stormsfury]

New runs, another violently different scenario.... until the next set at 00z...
Amazing variability ... case studies should be done on what went wrong this entire season..

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Its been doing that all season.

Euro has been caving to GFS all season?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

18z eps anyone?

 

[GaSnowhound]

The Euro's pulling the damming high fairly steadily east... And warming things up rapidly locally in Lower SC....

Frames before that...the temps are stoutly cold, stoutly wedged... With 925mb at -5C... How rapidly it breaks the wedge down is suspect given trends the last two storm systems here have seen more evaporational cooling than forecast even in the warm sector... Early suspicions and red flags brought up... First, the Baja Bogdown (well slower than you'd expect plus timing of moisture usually is hours faster...)...
The resiliency of a reinforced QPF wedge just normally doesn't magically disappear... we're not talking about a bowl of Lucky Charms here

Don’t models nearly always try to scour the wedge out while low level cold just sits like Kelley east of apps down they ATl (sometimes B’ham if strong enough wedge)

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Don’t models nearly always try to scour the wedge out while low level cold just sits like Kelley east of apps down they ATl (sometimes B’ham if strong enough wedge)

They've certainly stretched to the stateline.

as @deltadog03 says: "Never bet against a wedge".