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Tropical Karen

18Z Euro 90 (end of run) similar in position/strength to 12Z Euro 96
 
18Z EPS (goes out to 144) continues the trend to less active and less threatening to the CONUS vs the 12Z EPS, which itself was less active/threatening than the 0Z EPS. To be sure, there are some still well offshore TCs of members at 144 that would probably later threaten the CONUS if the run were to go out a few more days. But I wouldn’t be being honest if I didn’t say that the 18Z 144 is merely a shell of the 0Z 162.

I should also note that the 12Z CDN ensemble is less active/threatening vs the 0Z. Trends, folks. Let’s see what the 0Z consensus says.
 
GaWx said:
18Z EPS (goes out to 144) continues the trend to less active and less threatening to the CONUS vs the 12Z EPS, which itself was less active/threatening than the 0Z EPS. To be sure, there are some still well offshore TCs of members at 144 that would probably later threaten the CONUS if the run were to go out a few more days. But I wouldn’t be being honest if I didn’t say that the 18Z 144 is merely a shell of the 0Z 162.

I should also note that the 12Z CDN ensemble is less active/threatening vs the 0Z. Trends, folks. Let’s see what the 0Z consensus says.
Click to expand...

To illustrate the above EPS comparisons:

18Z EPS Hour 144: least active of 0Z, 12Z, and 18Z
D0E74CC2-C92D-407F-B030-2C51E4CDFDA4.png

12Z EPS hour 150: a bit more active than 18Z
B2D20F3B-2B98-48EB-A14F-EEB97702F9ED.png

0Z EPS hour 162: most active of the 3
B2D79737-4EA9-4F5E-84DE-5E9BC25EBC03.png
 
Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.

Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's not even the center. Its having a hard time with the thunderstorm activity due to extreme shear, hence the depressions in the thunderstorm activity.
Click to expand...

Yeah i dont know why but even some mets thought it was an eye earlier lol this has since been deleted

received_952255371774353.jpeg
 
I kind of think just based off IR that this is probably a wave right now, but since it's close enough to affecting people on the islands, the NHC is keeping it a depression to avoid people letting their guard down entirely.
 
The Icon is a mess, has a almost dead Jerry merge with a already dead Karen, then both weaken to a wave.... then its drifts it back SW and by 147 probably is trying to get it back to TS status......would that be a new name or Jerry again or maybe Jeren or Karry.....
 
Should we just ignore this?
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_37.png
 
Given that the icon is at 111, I think that's actually an entirely different system as depicted there. There is a lemon down near the Yucatán and it's probably, probably that.
 
Getting to the point where Karen becomes a big mess and hard to find around Jerry. From there on out, it's picking vortex
 
Pretty sure the GFS has Karen and Jerry interacting on this run. You can see the vort turn back west I think though. What would it be named if it did that and then later regenerated?
 
I dont know where to post now, either Jerry or Karen page Lol. The two joins together and tries to form a new vort or one of the two or whatever it does, but so far it tries to do something
 
Hour 180 was just a mess on this GFS run with the cyclone interaction and the CAG trying to spin up as well.

Legacy has the interaction too.

Needless to say, if this interaction idea happens there will be a lot of papers written about it.
 
0Z UKMET
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 15.9N 65.6W 1008 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 17.8N 65.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 20.1N 65.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 22.2N 64.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 24.9N 62.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 27.3N 61.9W 1002 34
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 29.1N 60.9W 999 46
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 31.0N 60.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 32.8N 61.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 28.09.2019 108 33.3N 64.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.09.2019 120 33.9N 66.5W 1004 35
1200UTC 29.09.2019 132 33.0N 68.0W 1002 31
0000UTC 30.09.2019 144 33.3N 68.7W 999 42
 
forget the models being a mess, this storm is a mess lol

recon did apparently close off a center earlier though
 
IF Karen gets absorbed by Jerry, it wouldn't be the first Karen to be absorbed by another TC, believe it or not! It happened 4 Karens ago:

From wiki: "Hurricane Iris of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season interacted with Hurricane Humberto, before interacting with and absorbing Tropical Storm Karen on September 3.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png
 
0Z Euro: close to a merger with Jerry at 72 but not sure they'll actually merge.

Edit: Amazing! After being on the brink of a merger, Karen stops at 60W while Jerry continues out slowly!! Model cartoons or the real thing?

Edit: As a result of being in much lower shear than Jerry, Karen gets stronger while Jerry weakens.Now Karen starting a WSW move from 60W. How far west will she end up? Stay tuned!
 
Last edited:
0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high.
 
LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!
 
GaWx said:
LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!
Click to expand...

Its also a 1012MB low.....so "landfall" might be a bit of a grandiose term for that ;).....she is trying at least, if the shear lets up she might be ok but it needs to happen soon.....
 
0Z EPS prelim[/b] from my source showing CONUS hitting TCs with less than 1004 SLP: 8 total members (so ~15%, ~same as run from 12 hours ago)

Oct 1: 3 members hit C FL with 2 of them then hitting LA 10/3
Oct 2: 1 Myrtle Beach
Oct 3: 1 GA/SC border; 1 NC OB
Oct 4: 1 FL Keys; 1 S FL
 
Downeastnc said:
Its also a 1012MB low.....so "landfall" might be a bit of a grandiose term for that ;).....she is trying at least, if the shear lets up she might be ok but it needs to happen soon.....
Click to expand...

I'm still leary about it moving west under a ridge, that's usually a problem and a half but maybe the shear doesn't abate here???
 
GaWx said:
0Z EPS prelim[/b] from my source showing CONUS hitting TCs with less than 1004 SLP: 8 total members (so ~15%, ~same as run from 12 hours ago)

Oct 1: 3 members hit C FL with 2 of them then hitting LA 10/3
Oct 2: 1 Myrtle Beach
Oct 3: 1 GA/SC border; 1 NC OB
Oct 4: 1 FL Keys; 1 S FL
Click to expand...
Looks like maybe 8 total with several other's lurking, couple of H's

1569326503313.png
 
She's looking healthy this morning, has maintained deep convection all night although the center is I think on the NE side of the main area of convection. Currently trying to develop convection on the east side now too..... it's been resilient in a hostile environment
 
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