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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
A
rk and Louisiana!
No it’s always Alabama remember
On the N American view, I was just noticing the model trend to a much weaker E US ridge for 9/28 though stronger WAR. On the GFS, check out the 168 hr of 0Z vs 162 hr of 6Z vs 156 hr of 12Z vs 150 hr of 18Z. That's a pretty drastic trend that doesn't look like it has ended. If this trend keeps up, what are the implications for Karen?
Cadi40
Member
What’s the trend mean for impacts? More of an impact to the East Coast?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, you know a storm named Karen is going to be really extra and petty.
Cadi40
Member
Convection is looking better than it was earlier.
FWIW, icyclone says he has tingles about this storm. Believes US hit. Would you evac if he showed up at your hometown to ride out the storm? Think Oak Island, Myrtle Beach, Daytona, etc.
I’d be panicked if I had to drive through Wilkesboro
I don’t think at this juncture, we should be worried about strength, just the basic path
18Z GEFS is once again a GEFS run with all weak to very weak members, most of which probably do come west.
Edit: 12Z JMA fwiw: stalls Karen at 120 as a weak low and then turns her west toward FL though while she is weakening to an open wave.
Edit: 12Z JMA fwiw: stalls Karen at 120 as a weak low and then turns her west toward FL though while she is weakening to an open wave.
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Brent
Member
In the short term this storm needs help stat
GeorgiaGirl
Member
yeah I don't think with the ridging that's possible that the question is where this ends up at least for now, the actual question is what are we going to see of Karen once it gets on the move to possibly more favorable conditions.
what we have of right now is a tropical depression, if anything at all I bet.
Fwiw, the GFS...lol, I think it somehow ends up combining with a front and it brings relief but it's a long way away.
what we have of right now is a tropical depression, if anything at all I bet.
Fwiw, the GFS...lol, I think it somehow ends up combining with a front and it brings relief but it's a long way away.
Dr. Jeff Masters said he wouldn’t be surprised if shear destroys Karen. The eastern Caribbean is a graveyard. North of Puerto Rico would be more favorable for development.
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NAVGEM stats going w-wsw at the end of its run