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Tropical Karen

GaWx said:
Brent, the wave that goes to TX actually looks like it isn’t from Karen but rather from a different disturbance coming in behind it from the Caribbean....that is if we’re looking at the same entity.
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Looks like Karen just breaks up kinda in 2 type pieces and the disturbance pushes up from the Caribbean into the gulf creates it's own low pressure. Interesting run for sure.
 
GaWx said:
Brent, the wave that goes to TX actually looks like it isn’t from Karen but rather from a different disturbance coming in behind it from the Caribbean....that is if we’re looking at the same entity.

NM, I’m looking at something later that goes into TX. My mistake.
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Yeah its super weak on the gfs which makes it harder to figure out too looks like it gets sheared out and dies before it ever approaches the US
 
KyloG said:
UK...not sure where to post this. But that’s Jerry trapped and Karen to its NE.
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Yep, I just posted this in the Jerry thread. This 12Z UKMET quickly downgrades Karen into a wave. Then after a NNW move of Jerry has him stall at hour 60 followed by a turn to the SSW hours 96-132 and then a turn to the WSW 132-44!

Edit: 12Z Legacy moves Karen west but then weakens her.
12Z GEFS: I couldn’t find any members that have anything other than weak though they do mainly get stuck and go west.
12Z CMC: way OTS

Edit: Meanwhile, she’s been weakening.
 
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Yes karen looks almost like a wave. I did see some spin, but the shear is ripping her apart.
 
Here comes the Euro
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_8.png
 
Just north of Miami, strengthening and still heading west, probably emerges in the eastern GOM... of course all this dependent on her surviving in the first place, looking ragged atm. Llc exposed and deep convection all over the place

1569178087455.png
 
That is one huge ridge on the Euro. Only one place that this is going in the case that's depicted there and it could be dangerous even if it's weak if it does get there (assuming it survives).
 
I hope the gfs and euro run today verifies with a weak system on the northern gulf coast. That would be great news for the ones who need rain which is many. Still to early and alot will change
 
12Z EPS: not surprisingly (due to much weaker operational) far weaker with the average member than the 0Z EPS and with far fewer full fledged TCs. Many fewer than the 18 CONUS hits of the 0Z. However, there are still a nontrivial number of CONUS hits out of ~51. More details later from somebody.
 
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Looks more possible if it heads west its gonna just become a rain maker as a weaker TS, if that’s the case bring it on, somebody in the SE would see beneficial rain from that
 
12Z EPS: About half the number of TC CONUS hits (9/29-10/4) vs 0Z's 18 but still means a legit threat as of now as I still see 10 hitting members/20% of members:

9/29: St. Aug., FL, as a H
9/29: SE tip of FL as a H followed by a 2nd hit SE LA 10/1 as a H
9/30: CHS, SC, as a H
9/30: SE FL as a TD
9/30: SE FL as a TD (different one)
10/1: GA/FL border as a TD
10/1: Cape Canaveral, FL, as a H
10/1: SE FL as a TS I think; then a 2nd hit on SE LA 10/3 as a TS
10/3: Daytona Beach, FL, as a TS
10/4: Vero Beach, FL, as a H

Edit: There is only one near CHS as the 2nd line is the same one coming back offshore lol. Also, one of the TDs hitting SE FL is from Jerry, not Karen.
 
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