If Karen is currently a TS I've got some ocean front property in Arizona, Kansas and North Dakota I'll sell you
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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
12Z Euro: At 168, she's 400 miles east of the 0Z 180 but moving steadily westward although much weaker. Will she still come all the way back on this run? She may because the ridge is getting reinforced. But even if she does, the good news is that she's way weaker.
Brent
Member
Is the euro caving to the gfs lol
Ethan80963!
Member
she
So, the 12Z GEFS members, which are all very weak, are not predominantly west as I had thought but rather a mix. Interesting trends here at 12Z though not really surprising.
Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro did come back to the FL Straits/SE Gulf but luckily she's just a wave now at 216.
Edit: 12Z Euro 228-40 turns the wave NW into the E GOM. Fortunately just a wave on this run. Now time for the EPS.
So, the 12Z GEFS members, which are all very weak, are not predominantly west as I had thought but rather a mix. Interesting trends here at 12Z though not really surprising.
Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro did come back to the FL Straits/SE Gulf but luckily she's just a wave now at 216.
Edit: 12Z Euro 228-40 turns the wave NW into the E GOM. Fortunately just a wave on this run. Now time for the EPS.
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Not surprisingly, it isn't as active as the 0Z's ~25% CONUS hitting members but I wouldn't call it quiet by any means. Maybe still 15% hitting on 12Z EPS with hits skewed later than the 0Z with some of these later ones recurving over FL back into the Atlantic or SE US, the climo path for early Oct.
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Well now I know that since I’ve never seen that comment before. I’m thinking 100 million times is a gross exaggeration.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
Am I crazy or have they been trending up a bit on intensity
Downeastnc
Member
Meanwhile the 18Z ICON shows Jerry absorbing what is left of Karen ( which isnt much) and removes any threat of Karen at all....
gareth68
Member
Gosh... That's quite a change from earlier intensity forecasts!
Jessy89
Member
The environment north or Porto Rico is more favorable for development. If it survives it could blow up.
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Henry2326
Member
Notice the UKM forecast line, riding north before turning west. Wonder if its seeing A little less invasion of the high southward.
Obvious trends towards more interaction between Jerry and Karen 
Trying to track the vorticity through the maze that is the 18z gfs run it looks like it has what identity there would be of Karen moving onshore near the SC/Ga border at 234
I lied there is the slightest hint at the surface to the SW of that moving up the east coast of Florida at this point
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I lied there is the slightest hint at the surface to the SW of that moving up the east coast of Florida at this point
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Gonna need to see if Karen can maintain any kind of circulation at all as it gets into more favorable conditions and about the interaction with Jerry. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a few days at least...