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Tropical Karen

Good tweet by Ryan Maue. The chance of Dissipation has many of the models you see out to lunch. If there is something to track watch out northern Bahamas and maybe south-east coast up into New England.
 
Icon keeps it as a TS
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_60.png
 
Gfs may be a bit stronger and holding itself together this run as it turning west. Never mind it fell apart now lol.
 
0z GFS with a stronger vortex with what I believe is Karen, still fairly weak and what seems like a broad circulation but on the 18z I think it basically just dissipated (since I finally looked at the vort and wind map).
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the models strengthen Karen in the future. Icon a bit stronger, CMC is also a bit stronger along with the gfs.
 
accu35 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the models strengthen Karen in the future. Icon a bit stronger, CMC is also a bit stronger along with the gfs.
Click to expand...

yeah I'm not sure about this whole weak storm going west idea... westward moving storms under a ridge are usually trouble(see Andrew, Katrina, even when Dorian bombed out to a point)

even the NHC is up to 65 mph by day 5 and that's before it really turns west

I'm not fully convinced it'll survive the next couple of days but even if it opens up to a wave it would seem conditions would be favorable to strengthen once east of the Bahamas unless I'm missing something maybe the models are right going weak but this is the same GFS that said Dorian didn't exist for days too... even the Euro had nothing for awhile
 
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GaWx said:
On the N American view, I was just noticing the model trend to a much weaker E US ridge for 9/28 though stronger WAR. On the GFS, check out the 168 hr of 0Z vs 162 hr of 6Z vs 156 hr of 12Z vs 150 hr of 18Z. That's a pretty drastic trend that doesn't look like it has ended. If this trend keeps up, what are the implications for Karen?
Click to expand...

And the above trend continued with today's 0Z 144 hour with no end in sight. Compare today's 0Z 144 with yesterday's 6Z 162.
First, here's yesterday's 6Z hour 162:
GFS_06_opNA_H500_0162.png

Next, here's today's 0Z 144: Look at how much weaker is the E US ridge! How weak will it be on later runs?
GFS_00_opNA_H500_0144.png
 
Moving west at 120 here we go

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6 (1).png

Much stronger and Florida bound at 144

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png
 
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