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Tropical Karen

From what I can tell the slower it moves. Greater the chance a cold front pushes it OTS


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These are more like MCVs tho, with strong convection that causes stronger gusts (55kt wind at FL found), looks like some of the MCVs we’ve had this past spring/summer
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Ugly but it’s trying, one center NW of that big blowup, and another one inside of that deep Convection, note it’s very exposed so it has a lot of work left to do to even become a cane View attachment 23979
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Yeah here's the loop to show how crazy the center is at the moment. Note the multiple vorticies, but they look to be merging
codnexlab.NEXRAD.JUA.N0Q.20190924.1842.096ani.gif
 
I don’t think the Bahamas are favorable for intensification or development for the rest of the season after seeing the euro. If you want a major you need to be near Cuba/western Carib, the gulf or way out in the Atlantic.
 
Henry2326 said:
I wouldn't eat crow yet. That's 9 days out.....this thing will change many many times till then.
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I meant on my prediction early in the 12Z Euro run that it would later hit FL in the run. It now looks like it won't.

12Z Euro: SW shear rose to high levels last few frames. Still hardly moving. Moved only 100 miles 48 hours 162-210 or average of only 2 mph!
 
Still long ways out, but Euro may be caving towards gfs.
 
Euro's moving slowly but at 500 mb, unfortunately its different compared to the GFS having a fall front try to rush in because of course it is.

actually at 216, the door seems open for whatever Karen is to exit without anything happening now.
 
Not a tropical expert...not even a novice, but realistically, what would it take to get this sucker in the gulf & target for a panhandle (Pensacola to Panama City) landfall?

Not hoping for a dangerous storm, just some drought relief for GA & AL
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro hardly moved 162-192! That means she may never reach FL and/or may turn. Will I have to eat crow?
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I think Lorenzo that run caused Karen to act a bit strangely that got close enough given the size of the major. And if true, all bets are off and models will do poorly until we know how they interact if they even do.
 
BD8CE894-AAC4-4F70-AAEF-5D4CCC88E733.jpegHere Karen goes south and Lorenzo goes north. I think some goofy interaction occurred which won’t be nailed down for days.
 
12Z Euro 228-140: turned NNW.

Another amazing run with lots of drama but in this case because nobody expected it to slow down suddenly 400 miles offshore S FL!
 
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The 240 look at 500 would be an exit stage right in future frames I'm pretty sure if that's how it looks at the time with the ridging, but if there's some silly interaction possible with Lorenzo, we'll have to wait for a while to see about that possibility.

The real shame is that the Euro still has ridging and the GFS doesn't. That sucks for temperature purposes.
 
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Also found it interesting EURO showed Lorenzo absorbing and causing remains of Jerry to sling south-east due to the sheer size of the major hurricane before the interaction with Karen. A lot of doors are open for poss. tracks.
 
12z EPS preliminary of TC's hitting CONUS with SLP of 1003 mb or lower: still a threat with 7 total hitting members out of 51 or 14% vs 16%/8 of the 0Z (I don't see any member stalling as a TC just off FL like on the operational)

1. 10/1 FL Keys weak TD?
2. 10/1 Just N of WPB TS?
3. 10/3 Just N of WPB TS?
4. 10/3 St. Aug. H
5. 10/4 SE tip FL H
6. 10/4 Cape Canaveral TS?
7. 10/7 FL Keys/far S tip H
 
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GaWx said:
12z EPS preliminary of TC's hitting CONUS with SLP of 1003 mb or lower: still a threat with 7 total hitting members out of 51 or 14% vs 16%/8 of the 0Z (I don't see any member stalling as a TC just off FL like on the operational)

1. 10/1 FL Keys weak TD?
2. 10/1 Just N of WPB TS?
3. 10/3 Just N of WPB TS?
4. 10/3 St. Aug. H
5. 10/4 SE tip FL H
6. 10/4 Cape Canaveral TS?
7. 10/7 FL Keys/far S tip H
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1569354872973.png
 
I think Karen will prob not dance with Lorenzo but there is a handful of 50W past solutions that could. 2819177D-B239-4F10-9AFA-3E9DDECD102C.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Any far west EPS scenarios for Lorenzo that would cause interference with Karen? Or too far apart?
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Technically, due to the butterfly effect, all atmospheric entities have an effect on each other. However, I feel that Lorenzo is so far away that any effect from it on Karen will be small. However, Jerry is a horse of a different color.
 
GaWx said:
I count ~30 surface lows out of 51 members. Only ~10 either stall well offshore or recurve. Out of the other 21, 7 hit the CONUS while the other ~14 either stay offshore the SE US or go toward the Caribbean.
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Just need to monitor trends. I'm starting to think full dissipation is very unlikely, considering it's current structure and short term atmospheric conditions also the eps is fairly active (30 out of 51). As NHC mentioned in their discussion earlier a stronger more vertically stacked system will most likely head west. Although this stall is a new wrinkle....
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: Only way this misses FL imo is if it goes south. Weakening due to shear.
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Just getting a chance to look; sure appears to be weakening and it could have a bad stretch to cover ... but weak, no wind and some rain (other than this Saturday for the game and next Thursday/Friday for my 2 day annual sanity check in Cedar Key) would be a very welcomed sight ...
 
So one other thing since I need to be working hard right now on a court thing - is the NHC graphic subject to radical change for Karen? I'll study tonight but a quick answer if someone is inclined is/will be most appreciated!
Phil
 
Ir
pcbjr said:
So one other thing since I need to be working hard right now on a court thing - is the NHC graphic subject to radical change for Karen? I'll study tonight but a quick answer if someone is inclined is/will be most appreciated!
Phil
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Not sure I completely understand the question mr. attorney Lol.... I'd say they are always subject to change, even radical change, but at this juncture in this case I'd say probably not. They look spot on atm
 
metwannabe said:
Ir

Not sure I completely understand the question mr. attorney Lol.... I'd say they are always subject to change, even radical change, but at this juncture in this case I'd say probably not. They look spot on atm
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Thnaks ... sounds good; saw some of Larry's posts very quickly, and really did not read closely; back to a motion for summary judgment ...
 
18Z ICON hour 3 (5 PM EDT) has it just NE of PR, which is too far north by ~60 miles. Distances like that can make a big difference in the ultimate track on the run.

18Z GFS: furthest west of last 4 runs where it is stalling. might be related to the initialization.
 
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Ethan80963 said:
Looks like an eye tryin to form on satellite View attachment 23989
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I'm sorry but I've seen this comment too much today and have to day again that there is NO eye forming at all. Eye formation requires a much lower pressure and especially to maintain one. There is no eye forming, but rather a small bit of dry air or the perception of one on IR with increasing convention around the center.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm sorry but I've seen this comment too much today and have to day again that there is NO eye forming at all. Eye formation requires a much lower pressure and especially to maintain one. There is no eye forming, but rather a small bit of dry air or the perception of one on IR with increasing convention around the center.
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I’m sorry for that I was just trying to seek others opinion on my question. I am just a high schooler trying to learn more about tropical systems.
 
Ethan80963 said:
I’m sorry for that I was just trying to seek others opinion on my question. I am just a high schooler trying to learn more about tropical systems.
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It’s all good man, Jerry tricked me a few days ago with that when it look like it had a eye, but was just some dry air, normally a eye starts to become favored below a pressure of 999, and looking at a radar and determining whether it looks organized on radar can help distinguish a eye or a exposed LLC/dry air
 
The real question for me is how much influence doe Jerry end up putting on Karen.....the faster and further NE she gets the less I think she is likely to end up making a run at the US as anything substantial......organizationally she looks ok and if she can get away from land in a lower shear environment then she could make a run at cane status fairly quickly I imagine...
 
I wouldn't get to excited with the Euro just yet. It has a known bias to over-intensify the ridge past 6 days. I'm watching for it to weaken and either send Karen up the SE coast or ots....hoping for the latter.
 
Henry2326 said:
I wouldn't get to excited with the Euro just yet. It has a known bias to over-intensify the ridge past 6 days. I'm watching for it to weaken and either send Karen up the SE coast or ots....hoping for the latter.
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I think they'll start getting a better handle on her intensity once she clears land gets under better conditions and we see how stacked she can get. Then after that it will be how much shear impacts her in the 5 day range. Models are all weak with her but if she is a stronger storm that may change some things in the modeling.
 
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