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Tropical Karen

On the N American view, I was just noticing the model trend to a much weaker E US ridge for 9/28 though stronger WAR. On the GFS, check out the 168 hr of 0Z vs 162 hr of 6Z vs 156 hr of 12Z vs 150 hr of 18Z. That's a pretty drastic trend that doesn't look like it has ended. If this trend keeps up, what are the implications for Karen?
 
FWIW, icyclone says he has tingles about this storm. Believes US hit. Would you evac if he showed up at your hometown to ride out the storm? Think Oak Island, Myrtle Beach, Daytona, etc.
 
18Z GFS has hardly anything as the remnants move westward. It is hard to even identify.
18Z Legacy is stronger but it is further east near Bermuda at hour 180 though hardly moving.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
FWIW, icyclone says he has tingles about this storm. Believes US hit. Would you evac if he showed up at your hometown to ride out the storm? Think Oak Island, Myrtle Beach, Daytona, etc.
Click to expand...
I’d be panicked if I had to drive through Wilkesboro
 
I don’t think at this juncture, we should be worried about strength, just the basic path
 
18Z GEFS is once again a GEFS run with all weak to very weak members, most of which probably do come west.

Edit: 12Z JMA fwiw: stalls Karen at 120 as a weak low and then turns her west toward FL though while she is weakening to an open wave.
 
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yeah I don't think with the ridging that's possible that the question is where this ends up at least for now, the actual question is what are we going to see of Karen once it gets on the move to possibly more favorable conditions.

what we have of right now is a tropical depression, if anything at all I bet.

Fwiw, the GFS...lol, I think it somehow ends up combining with a front and it brings relief but it's a long way away.
 
Dr. Jeff Masters said he wouldn’t be surprised if shear destroys Karen. The eastern Caribbean is a graveyard. North of Puerto Rico would be more favorable for development.
 
Good tweet by Ryan Maue. The chance of Dissipation has many of the models you see out to lunch. If there is something to track watch out northern Bahamas and maybe south-east coast up into New England.
 
Icon keeps it as a TS
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_60.png
 
Gfs may be a bit stronger and holding itself together this run as it turning west. Never mind it fell apart now lol.
 
0z GFS with a stronger vortex with what I believe is Karen, still fairly weak and what seems like a broad circulation but on the 18z I think it basically just dissipated (since I finally looked at the vort and wind map).
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the models strengthen Karen in the future. Icon a bit stronger, CMC is also a bit stronger along with the gfs.
 
accu35 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the models strengthen Karen in the future. Icon a bit stronger, CMC is also a bit stronger along with the gfs.
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yeah I'm not sure about this whole weak storm going west idea... westward moving storms under a ridge are usually trouble(see Andrew, Katrina, even when Dorian bombed out to a point)

even the NHC is up to 65 mph by day 5 and that's before it really turns west

I'm not fully convinced it'll survive the next couple of days but even if it opens up to a wave it would seem conditions would be favorable to strengthen once east of the Bahamas unless I'm missing something maybe the models are right going weak but this is the same GFS that said Dorian didn't exist for days too... even the Euro had nothing for awhile
 
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GaWx said:
On the N American view, I was just noticing the model trend to a much weaker E US ridge for 9/28 though stronger WAR. On the GFS, check out the 168 hr of 0Z vs 162 hr of 6Z vs 156 hr of 12Z vs 150 hr of 18Z. That's a pretty drastic trend that doesn't look like it has ended. If this trend keeps up, what are the implications for Karen?
Click to expand...

And the above trend continued with today's 0Z 144 hour with no end in sight. Compare today's 0Z 144 with yesterday's 6Z 162.
First, here's yesterday's 6Z hour 162:
GFS_06_opNA_H500_0162.png

Next, here's today's 0Z 144: Look at how much weaker is the E US ridge! How weak will it be on later runs?
GFS_00_opNA_H500_0144.png
 
Moving west at 120 here we go

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6 (1).png

Much stronger and Florida bound at 144

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png
 
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