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Tropical Karen

The 0Z EPS has 13 CONUS hits (**Edit: this is an error as it is actually 12 as per my post below**) (~25% of its members). Not good news as that’s the second most I’ve seen yet on any EPS. The most I’ve seen is 18.
(Note that 14 show up but one that hits C FL is actually from Jerry believe it or not.)
There are 3 near the 0Z operational over S FL and 1 south over Cuba. However, the highest concentration is actually to the north over C FL, where there are 5. There are 4 over N FL and 1 over GA.

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GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS has 13 CONUS hits (~25% of its members). Not good news as that’s the second most I’ve seen yet on any EPS. The most I’ve seen is 18.
(Note that 14 show up but one that hits C FL is actually from Jerry believe it or not.)
There are 3 near the 0Z operational over S FL and 1 south over Cuba. However, the highest concentration is actually to the north over C FL, where there are 5. There are 4 over N FL and 1 over GA.

View attachment 23899
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I think it's more like 3 or 4 from Jerry that make it to CONUS..... crazy

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Karen is also a mess right now with some convection trying to fire over what is the "center".... this thing looks real close to opening back up to a wave to me. I'd say all bets are off any type of track until such time she gets her act together.
 
I do have a little bit of good news. The 6Z EPS, which only goes out to 144, is not quite as active as the 150 of the 0Z. But it is still a bit worrisome:

6Z EPS 144: less active than map following this one
62E00022-5D4A-4097-956D-CE63DC09B62C.png

0Z 150: more active than 6Z 144
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Yeah @GaWx the 06z EPS not very impressed at all, the maps get confusing as some these on the map below (the northern most systems) are Jerry, at least most are very weak.

Oh btw coming into the last frame is TD 13 which @Ollie Williams has been watching have less and less interaction with the trough out in the Atlantic. Going to be real interesting to see how all of this plays out over the coming weeks.

1569246909229.png
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah @GaWx the 06z EPS not very impressed at all, the maps get confusing as some these on the map below (the northern most systems) are Jerry, at least most are very weak.

Oh btw coming into the last frame is TD 13 which @Ollie Williams has been watching have less and less interaction with the trough out in the Atlantic. Going to be real interesting to see how all of this plays out over the coming weeks.

View attachment 23909
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So, this is showing that no more than ~1/3 of the 6Z members are an actual TC at hour 144. I think this illustrates the biggest hope as of now, lack of strength rather than recurving safely OTS. But who’s to say that over the next couple of days that recurving doesn’t become a more favored model solution as we know that kind of trend could occur.
 
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Ok after a lot of digging there is only 1 Storm I could find for October norms that moved west south west into the Gulf of Mexico...Hurricane Inez in 1966.
 
Karen is on life support.... from the NHC

000
WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level
swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen
has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is
possible that a center reformation will occur near the new
convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical
cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of
30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still
supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure
of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should
remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength
is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen
could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.
 
The 12Z ICON illustrates well how Karen could be influenced differently by Jerry if his low level swirl lingers longer than most non UKMET models have shown.
 
12Z Euro 175 miles ENE of the 0Z at hour 96

She's hardly moved hours 90-114 and then starts moving west at 120.. But likely too far east to come back as she's like 250 miles ENE of the 0Z.
 
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12Z Euro: At 168, she's 400 miles east of the 0Z 180 but moving steadily westward although much weaker. Will she still come all the way back on this run? She may because the ridge is getting reinforced. But even if she does, the good news is that she's way weaker.
 
she
Ethan80963! said:
View attachment 23919
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So, the 12Z GEFS members, which are all very weak, are not predominantly west as I had thought but rather a mix. Interesting trends here at 12Z though not really surprising.

Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro did come back to the FL Straits/SE Gulf but luckily she's just a wave now at 216.

Edit: 12Z Euro 228-40 turns the wave NW into the E GOM. Fortunately just a wave on this run. Now time for the EPS.
 
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Not surprisingly, it isn't as active as the 0Z's ~25% CONUS hitting members but I wouldn't call it quiet by any means. Maybe still 15% hitting on 12Z EPS with hits skewed later than the 0Z with some of these later ones recurving over FL back into the Atlantic or SE US, the climo path for early Oct.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
He stated a 100 million times he can’t do so and that all caps is locked at his job (911 emergency call center ^)
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Well now I know that since I’ve never seen that comment before. I’m thinking 100 million times is a gross exaggeration.
 
The environment north or Porto Rico is more favorable for development. If it survives it could blow up.


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Trying to track the vorticity through the maze that is the 18z gfs run it looks like it has what identity there would be of Karen moving onshore near the SC/Ga border at 234


I lied there is the slightest hint at the surface to the SW of that moving up the east coast of Florida at this point
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Gonna need to see if Karen can maintain any kind of circulation at all as it gets into more favorable conditions and about the interaction with Jerry. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a few days at least...
 
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