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Tropical Karen

accu35 said:
Cmc also probably never hits the US. East of the gfs
Click to expand...

We'll never know for sure obviously, but it is then in a very dangerous position as it appears to be turning into the SE coast at 240 with winds at all levels aiming toward the coast.
 
80% now

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 60W and S of 16N is
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
08N-14N between 55W-64W. Recent satellite-derived surface wind
data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance
is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern
portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is
expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and
then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to
turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the
next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be
required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands on Sunday. This system has a high chance for
tropical development during the next 48 hours.1C7C5AF3-5226-4165-ACA9-DC376D8561D0.jpeg
 
0Z Euro: 99L turned NNW from 96-120 and the road ahead looks potentially ominous in this position with the high now building to the north and NW. The high is a little stronger and 99L is slightly further S than the 12Z had.

Edit: turned W 120-132. At 144, it is 150 miles SW of its 12Z position moving W.
 
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GaWx said:
0Z Euro: 99L turned NNW from 96-120 and the road ahead looks potentially ominous in this position with the high now building to the north and NW. The high is a little stronger and 99L is slightly further S than the 12Z had.

Edit: turned W 120-132. At 144, it is 150 miles SW of its 12Z position moving very slowly W.
Click to expand...
So faster the system, more of a US threat I suppose?
 
Moving West
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_8.png
 
If the euro went out anymore I think we may have seen a solution that would be devastating.
 
The 0Z EPS is very ominous for the CONUS and much worse than the 12Z. I'd say at least 30 of the 51 or so members form a TC and 2/3 of those move toward and and mostly hit the US with only ~10 (roughly 1/3 of the TCs) recurving away from the CONUS. Just over 1/3 of the 52 (~18) members hit the CONUS 9/29-10/3 with 99L.
 
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If you look at the euro, look at those lowering heights in Canada and the beginning of the ridge collapsing in the SE at hour 240, if the cane takes a path that could disrupt that colder air in Canada, that could aid in the pattern change to real fall as those lower heights/trough would be tugged down to the southeast, just something to think about
 
Basically every major model pins it under the ridge and turns it west. I've not seen this much consistency this far out in awhile. They certainly disagree as to the location of the threat, but at least notice can be given, different from Imelda.
 
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