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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Hmm. Trends?
With that SE ridge, it’ll go straight to TX or Mexico. Won’t help with SE drought
Henry2326
Member
IF THAT WOULD SPLIT MS/AL THE KICK ACROSS TN TO THE CAROLINA'S IT MIGHT WOULD DO US SOME GOOD IN THE SE
The 18Z EPS 51 members have about 25% of its members as full fledged TCs. Most of those 25% are stuck at the end of the run and in a potentially threatening position with regard to the SE US. I see only 2 of 13 99L related TCs that as of the end of the run (144 hours) that would appear to not have a chance to come back to the US. These 2 are on the far right of the attached 132 hour map. So, there’s a big difference right now vs Jerry, which was a pretty easy recurve from the start in my mind. 99L is not. But there’s much more uncertainty regarding the actual genesis vs Jerry being a certainty.
The one TC that is on the SE FL coast then is actually from Jerry:
The one TC that is on the SE FL coast then is actually from Jerry:
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NOT LOOKING TO SHABBY ON IR
Brent
Member
Special TWO, Code RED
Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Henry2326
Member
00z ICON puts in the same spot as Euro and GFS on 9/29.....
According to the AVNI the GFS spaghetti model member the 00z GFS is supposed to go pretty far east before being dragged west
CMC stronger and heading W-WNW fwiw
Looks like a front dropping SE, would pull it north
GFS IS WAY SLOWER THEN THE CMC. GFS IS WHERE THE CMC IS AT OCTOBER 1ST 06Z
CANT WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE EURO SHOWS. THE 12Z HAS IT AT 973MB AND TICKING WEST AFTER AN EAST MOVE