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Pattern June 2022

Some areas in GA forecast to be 105 next week !
I'm going to bet that temps will be closer to the 0z Euro output. Low to mid 90's mostly. Still hot and humid, but not 105 garbage. The GFS over does it on extremes. I don't know why, but I wish they would fix it. Also, the ensembles are very useful beyond 3 days on temps in the summer time, in my opinion.
 
I'm going to bet that temps will be closer to the 0z Euro output. Low to mid 90's mostly. Still hot and humid, but not 105 garbage. The GFS over does it on extremes. I don't know why, but I wish they would fix it. Also, the ensembles are very useful beyond 3 days on temps in the summer time, in my opinion.
I think its mainly for areas like Albany and Augusta.
 
It's 93 degrees here but in the last hour or so I've noticed a few clouds covering up the sun from time to time so I'm thinking triple digits are probably not going to happen today. I'm hoping my vegetable garden located east of Garner will be the recipient of one of those widely isolated thunder storms that have been mentioned in a couple of forecasts. I've only had a trace of rain there in the past ten days and hopefully something will pop up to break the dry spell.
 
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You can tell it's been a while since we had a true heatwave in our region
We all have been talking about the same thing at work for the past month or two. While ofcourse the blistering week of 100’s in October of 2019 were bad, you really have to go back to 2016 to find the summer the heat wouldn’t end. You wouldn’t even have to look at the forecast as you knew it was sunny at 95-98 degrees with no chance of rain for three straight months.

The last two summers have really spoiled us here in AL.
 
The 3k NAM is showing a helluva overnight MCS for the coastal Carolinas
 
Might dodge a heat bullet today5BD1F8AF-009E-426C-8598-2FFDB4B12AA0.png
 
FFC has a heat advisory for tomorrow now.

311 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values of 105 to 110 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central,
northeast, northwest, southeast and west central Georgia.

* WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Afternoon thunderstorms could temper the heat
in some areas during the day tomorrow and could provide some
temporary relief from the heat.
 
Excessive heat warning for CLT metro. Currently
CAE 99
CLT 96
RDU 96
SPA 95
I think CAE would have easily eclipsed 100, maybe even 102 or so but it's been shown as mostly cloudy the past couple of hours in prime heating time. They may have hit it already though, or may yet. Terrible down there.
 
@SD What did I tell you about the heat?

Delayed but not denied.

And for those who were loving that cool NW flow and troughing y'all had all Spring while the drought across Texas and the SW worsened, that other shoe has now dropped.
 
@SD What did I tell you about the heat?

Delayed but not denied.

And for those who were loving that cool NW flow and troughing y'all had all Spring while the drought across Texas and the SW worsened, that other shoe has now dropped.
Euro is a pretty classic heat evolution for the Carolinas with the airmass moving through Southern Canada into the northern US then being driven into the SE on the NW flow. The useless summer front moves through this weekend and the BL isn't able to recover so dews are already low next week then we mix in the 24-27°C 850s and you are looking at 100-107 with no BL moisture to hold warming back a few degrees. Enjoy the 50s and 60s this weekend
 
Obv some sites could have another degree to rise still but preliminary across the Carolinas looks like
CAE 102 (103?)
GSP 97
RDU 99
CLT 98
 
Peaked at 95 with 62% humidity at my house today. Grass cutting weather.
 
Wow fellas, tonight's GFS run says next week's heat tells this weeks heat to hold his beer... ?

gfs_T2m_us_33.png


gfs_T2m_us_37.png


gfs_T2m_us_41.png


gfs_T2m_us_45.png


This weather STINKS!
 
Wow fellas, tonight's GFS run says next week's heat tells this weeks heat to hold his beer... ?

gfs_T2m_us_33.png


gfs_T2m_us_37.png


gfs_T2m_us_41.png


gfs_T2m_us_45.png


This weather STINKS!
Long way off obviously, but if that were to verify next Thursday, KCLT could make a run at the all time record high of 104
 
My heart goes out to ya CAE peeps :eek:

10Day_Forecast.jpg


TWC says this is too low


  • Moonset5:09 am

Tue 14​

103°/79°
Partly Cloudy

15%

W 7 mph

Wed 15​

101°/75°
Partly Cloudy

24%

NE 8 mph

Thu 16​

97°/76°
Partly Cloudy

20%

SE 5 mph

Fri 17​

100°/76°
Partly Cloudy

24%

W 7 mph

Sat 18​

96°/69°
Sunny

3%

NNE 9 mph

Sun 19​

92°/69°
Mostly Sunny

3%

NE 7 mph

Mon 20​

97°/73°
Partly Cloudy

2%

WSW 5 mph

Tue 21​

103°/77°
Mostly Sunny

0%

W 7 mph

Wed 22​

105°/78°
Mostly Sunny

11%

WNW 7 mph

Thu 23​

102°/77°
PM Thunderstorms

35%

WNW 7 mph

Fri 24​

98°/75°
PM Thunderstorms

36%

NNW 6 mph

Sat 25​

96°/72°
Partly Cloudy

24%

ENE 7 mph

Sun 26​

93°/74°
PM Thunderstorms

40%

ENE 7 mph

Mon 27​

94°/74
 
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This setup reminds me of July 1st 2012 where we had winds gusting to 100+ over parts of the county/east.....it had been a 100 degree day with insane instability.....a derecho complex had passed to the north the night before leaving some old outflows that ran into the crazy unstable airmass at peak heating over eastern NC.....

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh18-22.gif



"The deadly thunderstorms were fueled by the extreme heat affecting the Southeast, coupled with unusually high levels of moisture. The extraordinary heat and moisture caused high levels of atmospheric instability rarely seen. The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina at 2 pm EDT Sunday was 5000 to 6000 J/kg, with a lifted index of -14. The Morehead City NWS office analyzed CAPE levels in excess of 7000 J/kg (Figure 1) in the region, which is a truly rare occurrence."
 
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