• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern June 2022

Hmmm, 98°F at DFW now. Might still have a shot at 100°F after all.

It's the warmest day of the year to-date, BTW.
 
For the first time this event, the 00z EURO is even hotter than the GFS in the long range.

While the GFS didn't have any significant changes with the pattern, it does show the ridge taking much more of a beating from tropical disturbances than before.
 
As one last weak shortwave track around the peripheru of the ridge, some convection has developed this morning in SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas along with mid-level cloud cover, moving SSE

Although it shouldn't have a huge impact on the overall forecast, it may help to keep temps a bit cooler than expected in areas affected by the cloud debris & outflow boundaries depending on how widespread the activity becomes.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah and neither model gives central eastern NC any love in regards to drought relief.
Click to expand...
Pattern coming up should be ok for rain chances but yeah any widespread drought relief doesn't look as good as it might have yesterday.
 
SD said:
Pattern coming up should be ok for rain chances but yeah any widespread drought relief doesn't look as good as it might have yesterday.
Click to expand...
Looking at the 6z gfs the concern of the old "drought begets drought" fear starts to enter the back of my mind. Is it a coincidence the precip minimum overlays the severe drought zone? This is the entire runs total.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20220611-094002_Samsung Internet.jpg
    Screenshot_20220611-094002_Samsung Internet.jpg
    219.1 KB · Views: 16
6z GFS is intersting. It's been advertising the heatwave after the 20th to be even hotter than next weeks, but the 6z brings through a front from almost due North and shows a couple of very pleasant days and nights, with a general return to seasonal or below average temps for the duration of the run. Who knows what will happen at this lead but its a way better look than its been showing.

gfs_T2m_us_51.png


gfs_T2m_us_53.png
 
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
Click to expand...

The saving grace for you all further east may be a persistent -NAO block, which would keep any ridging and heat releases to the east fairly transient.

At the same time though, that outcome would only enhance the temperatures out this way because of compressional heating under the NW flow and further drying out of soils.
 
Last edited:
LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
Click to expand...
Yep once we establish these big continental us heat ridges it often takes fall to get rid of them. My earlier post about the heat won't last long was more of a joke than reality. The current version of the heat ridge should slowly retrograde in time to the central SW us but the next 10 days will be warm with the centered so close. Once it retrograde we will temper back closer to average with better chances at rain. That said with that ridge lurking and the ability to squeeze it east at times we will at minimum have bouts of extreme heat (highs 95-105) through the next 30-45 days
 
Last edited:
NorthDFWwx said:
The saving grace for you all further east may be a persistent -NAO block, which would keep any ridging and heat releases to the east fairly transient.

At the same time though, that outcome would only enhance the temperatures out this way because of compressional heating under the NW flow and further drying out of soils.
Click to expand...
That -NAO block and how persistent it remains is why I think you guys will bake all summer and into fall and us in the east I think will see good periods set up with daily storm chances. We even see that later this week after KCLT has a 4 days 98-102, we start seeing storm chances ramp back up on the back side
 
It's crazy that every run of the GFS continues the advertise a daily high of 100°F+ at DFW from start to finish.

It's rare to see such consistently.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top