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Pattern June 2022

00z GFS is the hottest run yet out here, except for the very tail end when a tropical wave finally breaks through the heat dome.

Will have to watch for a flash drought expansion too, with the pattern looking dry.
 
Made it up to 94*F yesterdat at DFW.

After a "cool" start to the month, June should be back in the positive departure territory after today.
 
The trend towards more of an omega block pattern in the mid-range isn't too surprising though, especially with the MJO in a cooler phase.

That's been the status quo much of this spring.
 
JHS said:
Someone would make it to 100 if that verifies. Maybe a little higher in a couple of spots.
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Reminds me of last June when the models kept pushing the heat dome into the SE but it kept getting cut off by wave breaks on the eastern side of the heat ridge. Eps actually backed off some locally on the period centered around 6/15 previous runs had around 20% of the members over 100 with some in the 105-110 range that's pretty much gone
 
Am peeping out some of the latest CAMs attempting to bring the MCS from tonight into North Texas tomorrow.

Could be interesting if they're onto something.
 
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NorthDFWwx said:
Am peeping out some of the latest CAMs attempting to bring the MCs from tonight into North Texas tomorrow.

Could be interesting if they're onto something.
Click to expand...
I always find MCS patterns to be interesting as models never seem to grasp them that well.

I saw that there was an 82 mph wind gust a little ways south of OKC from the MCS that moved through there this morning that models didn’t seem to show that much out of yesterday.

I think there was another one on Sunday morning that produced a few warning’s in OK that models whiffed on as well.
 
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