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Deleted member 1449
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18z ICON getting closer.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Flotown
Member
Yes BOUT got it done....18z ICON getting closer.
lexxnchloe
Member
Not bad at all and friday isnt all that far away. Lets get 1 more before the warm-up.18z ICON getting closer.
You guys really don't want this coming closer this far out... I can't remember the last storm (aside from a system a couple weeks ago that setup a 50/50) that didn't trend closer and closer at 00 hour. I prefer to see it start around Thursday morning.
stephend122080
Member
Look how far the icon was off for this past storm at this lead time
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Fair point but once it goes full coastal it usually doesn’t come back
Jessy89
Member
Icon actually did get it done for upstate sc ne Georgia and western NC. You’d only get a novelty event from it. But still pretty nice
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What an amazing jump on the ICON which is exactly what we need to see a larger storm. Pinch off the northern stream TPV a little more to get it to cut off and tilt negative.
RollTide18
Member
Before the 2/12/10 storm, the models had the low in Cuba a few days before the event, suppression is definitely good right now because this will come back NW.
The only issue is, that was 12 years ago and models have improved. I still haven't forgotten about this disaster from 2019. Sometimes suppression never comes back.
Wintry - 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
Got some pretty good model agreement for a system next weekend. New euro (from what I can tell) continues this trend and actually trended better. CMC has a system and both GFS models have one as well.
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Hypsometric
Member
18z ICON was going neg tilt at the end. That would have pulled the low back in and rapidly strengthened it. Might have been a hair late but great trend if it will hold.
brendan123
Member
I would’ve liked to see it colder and coming in at night instead of mid-day but obviously too early to be talking specifics like that
The 18z GFS is already coming in better.
HurricaneSolomon
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Ironically 22 years ago this day I watched the NFC championship game between the Rams and Buccaneers. That night after the game the forecast for the following Monday night called for clear skies only to wake up Tuesday morning, January 25th to 18” of snow in Durham, NC. So... today 22 years later January 23rd we are watching the Rams and Buccaneers yet again. Let’s reel another big one in...
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Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea I would have loved to see the next 24 hours on that
Cary_Snow95
Member
ajr
Member
That looks a lot like the epic 18z run from yesterday
Yeah… I remember switching to the news during halftime and saw that WBTV here in CLT had added a chance of light snow Monday afternoon to the forecast… didn’t expect to be driving home in heavy snow 24 hours later
ajr
Member
Trying to close off over the four corners region?
Cary_Snow95
Member
GFS did dig further west, but it’s having the same issue as the Euro…stays too positive tilt and doesn’t sharpen at the base of the trough. Good setup overall though if we can get a few tweaks
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Too flat of a shortwave
We really need to get the TPV out of here so the wave can pinch off and tilt negatively.
Getting this to dig farther west is a good thing. Think we just need another shortwave to drop down the backside of the trough to achieve better tilt at the end. Models could easily miss on something like that this far out
I’m not great at reading the the H5, and really need to work on it, but was that run not isanely close to a boardwide bomb?
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TPV looks about a hundred miles further north on GEFS at 102
The GEFS is an improvement as well
That's probably what's going on. I'll bet in a lot of these cases, you see these big storms and then some of the energy that is key to the system gets lost for a couple of days or so and then gets back on the grid and guess what? You see the storm start showing up again.
See the energy around Lake Superior? As Grit just mentioned, we need something to go down the back of the trough to tilt it some so it can go negative, if that or another pocket of energy streams down sooner and/or further west, that would do the trick.
Cary_Snow95
Member
On that run you add some tilt and it’s gonna explode
I’m confused. Wouldn’t the TPV separating and pulling North remove our source of cold air? Aren’t we usually rooting for the TPV to come close enough to provide the cold air?
Yeah, troughs don't tilt negatively if there are troughs behind it -- that screwed up this run.
We're rooting for the TPV to get out of here so the wave can tilt negatively. Typically shortwaves that cut off from the TPV at the last minute do a good job of supplying cold air.
Hypsometric
Member
Haha you ain’t kidding. Look how similar yesterday’s 18z GFS was to today’s 18z run. Same players in almost the same position, just slightly different strengths.
? ? 
Pretty decent west trend.
Down the stovepipe and right smack dab into the middle of the four corners region. Honk honk. Cant ask for much more than that.
Back in the day we would be buying snow shovels with the GFS/GEFS showing this at day 5