packfan98
Moderator
Trough on the 12z GEFS still looks too positively tilted at hr 120 on the mean for a big phase bomb where we need it. Definitely a positive run early on compared to previous runs though.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
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Regardless of a big phased bomb this is increasingly looking like at least a novelty event for some in SC/NC/VA
Seeing a lot of “fingers of moisture” trying to really get that phase going but this piece of energy and moisture is what will at least bring a novelty event to some in the SE 
stephend122080
Member
Considering we've had NW trends with previous systems, this isn't a bad look
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Def some improvement 
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Yet another cold snow?
D
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Hypsometric
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If that trend continues it could throw an unforeseen additional piece of northern stream energy into the equation. Happened with this last storm and is actually what brought it back.
The globals are showing huge bombs off the coast. Regardless if we get hit would be great to see this plaster the east.
Oconeexman
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Eerily similar to the last dud...I mean good snow yall saw! Reel it in fellas
Could not be a novelty event. Keep the s/w positive and keep diving it west and before long you are gonna get a overrunning event. You can see several GEFS members are picking up on that. You can also see moisture pooling on the coast. This is what we watch east of NC/SC.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is honestly a really great look. Dig it a little more to slow the wave down, and you have a big dog in the SE like the 18z GFS yesterday.Could not be a novelty event. Keep the s/w positive and keep diving it west and before long you are gonna get a overrunning event. You can see several GEFS members are picking up on that. You can also see moisture pooling on the coast. This is what we watch east of NC/SC.
iGRXY
Member
Keep the flatter look at least another 48 hours. 9.9/10 times we know this is going to come further NW. Especially with no blocking over top. This could be that 0.1 it’s a flat wave that doesn’t phase until too late but that really hasn’t been the trend this year and we know storms are going to come further NW. It’s just a matter of how much.
This is something to watch isn’t far off from 2 weekends ago, almost same exact looks 
Heelyes
Member
Regardless of the outcome, having something to track 3 weeks in a row is amazing.
That map is really amazing when you consider that even that Lake Effect snow NW Indiana has seen very little this year
iGRXY
Member
It’s definitely fun to have this many storms to track. Exhausting but fun. Especially considering we haven’t had anything to track for 3 years except potential icing events that turned in 32 degree cold rain over on this side of the mountains.
Happy a lot of us have had a successful January so far. Of course, there are still some on the board that haven’t hit yet, but a lot of people hit that haven’t in awhile.
The Low develops too far north on both the GFS and the CMC. However if the phase happend sooner and the Low starting bombing out off the coast of FL instead of waiting until it gets NC before bombing out, that could've put many more areas in the game and maybe dare I say cause blizzard conditions from Eastern GA to VA as the low rapidly deepens. I still favor climo and the Low not bombing out before it gets towards the Outer Banks,but a earlier phase could change everything,which at that point crazy things might happen.
Some improvement with the 12z's so far...let's see if we can keep the momentum going
Here is Sugar Mtn, NC....December 29 vs. January 23
Here is Sugar Mtn, NC....December 29 vs. January 23
Cmc ensembles @Myfrotho704_ ?
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We’re going to have the advantage of a cold ground again so we shouldn’t waste much.
dsaur
Member
22.4 here.
RollTide18
Member
Not too far from something here
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CMCE appears to have taken a big shift to the right
CMCE followed the CMC and is a NE directed hit
Sctvman
Member
SnowNiner
Member
Well, better trends I guess today so far but still a while to go. Again depending on a well timed phase sadly.
A little disappointed even with the split flow pattern that's we've had, we haven't had a good old fashioned southern stream threat; from Texas to the Carolinas. Everything's been northern stream dig dependent.
A little disappointed even with the split flow pattern that's we've had, we haven't had a good old fashioned southern stream threat; from Texas to the Carolinas. Everything's been northern stream dig dependent.
Sctvman
Member
Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a true split flow, and we certainly don't have a suppressed enough height field oriented in such a way that you get a bona-fide west to east southern tracking system.
I’m not so sure we are reliant on a phase anymore. But that wave has got to keep digging west.
Euro is digging more to the SW, but don't how much it will be able to sharpen over the SE
packfan98
Moderator
It's hard to believe we may have our second system in a row where we want more SE Ridging.