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Pattern Januworry

GaWx said:
Exactly, this is around the transition period of the mean of 30 members. Some come earlier and others come later.

PS It isn’t going to snow here barring a miracle because that’s my climo. I just want the November cold pattern to return because I just like it cold, period. Snow is not something on many people’s mind in SAV, I can assure you.
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I understand. I mean people in different parts of the country are going to have different expectations. I get that. I don't expect a lot of snow. But honestly, most people here hope to see some. Right?

When we get to the end of a run of the ensemble mean and see average, that’s not really telling us very much or leading us to believe that we should have confidence that a colder regime is on the horizon. I'm honestly not trying to rain on the cold parade. But if we're going to eventually flip to a colder pattern, then we're going to start seeing some consistency in that showing up out in time. Right now, like grumpysnow said, we're seeing less agreement there than we would want. That's a pretty big clue for the time being.
 
Interesting to note the GFS doesn’t build the rain shield as much as all the other models have and I think that will change.. although it may not be a big deal for the outcome of the model, every storm effects the next so interesting to see that much more GEFS increased the rain shield like other models so look for that to change on subsequent runs.
 
GaWx said:
Exactly, this is around the transition period of the mean of 30 members. Some come earlier and others come later.

PS It isn’t going to snow here barring a miracle because that’s my climo. I just want the November cold pattern to return because I just like it cold, period. Snow is not something on many people’s mind in SAV, I can assure you.
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I see it from both sides here. You're right the transition period is at the end of the modeling right now and is not reliable. We are now to the point though where we should start seeing some favorable looks with some consistency that gets inside the 384 hr mark over the next few days. A favorable MJO pass is likely now, we know that. And those pretty blue maps over the east in January in phase 7 and 8 do give an idea of what's more than likely coming. But I'm sure just like every La Nina is not a torch and every El Nino is not cold, I'm sure there are some times where a pass through 7 and 8 in January during a La Nina didn't follow those composites. I think the odds are in our favor of flipping this for sure. But you can't blame someone for being skeptical considering how our luck has been the last few years.
 
Ollie Williams said:
No, best run since 00z.
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I’d describe it as best ending since 0Z for the SE because the run up until almost the end was actually slightly warmer overall than 12Z and about a wash vs 6Z. It was mainly only the end that was better than 12Z/6Z in terms of averaged temperatures. Regarding very late in the run, I have it about tied with 0Z. I agree that 0Z is overall easily still the coldest run of the day in the SE because it is significantly colder than 18Z until late.
 
Broken024 said:
Freezing rain and sleet would like to have a word with you
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Yep, last February I got 8.5 inches of sleet and snow from 2 storms within 3 days of eachother. I was far enough west to get a big storm but the warmer 850s kept me from easily having my biggest snow ever. It was 23-25 at the surface the whole time and I’m thinking 16 inches or so instead of 8.5 due to hours and hours of sleet or sleet mixed with snow.
 
It is now weenie talk time. I say weenie because it involves 1984-5:

1. For SAV among other places, Dec 2021 will end up warmer than Nov 2021 by a whopping ~3F per current forecasts. The only time back to the 1870s that Dec ended up more than 3 warmer than Nov was 1984, when it was 3.7 warmer.

2. For RDU and ATL, forecasts have Dec slightly warmer than Nov. In 1984, Dec was also warmer than Nov. (by the biggest amount on record at RDU and the 3rd biggest at ATL).

3. After a BN Nov of 1984, Dec of 1984 was one of the warmest on record at all 3 and even warmer than the forecast for Dec of 2021.

4. The last half of Dec of 1984 had a strong -PNA, strong +NAO, and +AO. The MJO was in phase 5 and then 6. There was a -EPO.

5. Jan had -EPO, a strong +PNA and -NAO, and a very strong -AO.

6. ENSO of late 1984 was very similar to that of now. Also, it, too, was a 2nd year La Niña.

7. January of 1985 was extreme I realize. So, expecting a repeat in January of 2022 would still be quite weenie even with these many strong similarities in 2021 preceding it. But who’s to say that at least part of January of 2022 won’t slightly resemble January of 1985?

End of weenie talk.

PS it is pretty obvious that we go from -PNA to +PNA to best resemble January of 1985’s indices.
 
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