• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

Brick Tamland said:
Even when the pattern is supposedly good based on what's happened in the past it still doesn't actually produce snow here as often as it used to. That be the facts.
Click to expand...
You say this every year. But we really haven't had many "good" patterns for snow in a long time. Just because you hear people on here talking about a favorable index doesn't mean that it's a good pattern. There are lots of people who do know what a good pattern is for snow. To say that we don't know what a good pattern is is just incorrect.
 
I just wonder if the longer we go without a real big winter storm, the worse it will be when we have one in regards to busted pipes, shutdowns, etc. Kind of like Texas last year.
 
Somosdel said:
Yep long winter ahead. just takes one storm to make a southern winter.
Click to expand...

Agree but you need some semblance of cold somewhere east of the Mississippi in order to get there. Aside from the current little blip of cold there is none to be found on the dynamic models.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Calling off January on December 21st, 2021 is hilarious. The pattern really isn't THAT bad like the usual doom and gloom crowd want you to think it is. A terrible pattern would be no -AO, - NAO, no MJO favorable phases, and a whole lot of other things. We have a lot of good things on our side to get cold and wintry weather in the southeast. The coldest air in the northern hemisphere is actually making its way to our side of the globe for once. The MJO still looks like it will be at least be in a favorable phase for next month which can help maintain our -NAO. The Pacific is the only thing holding us back right now and as others have said, if we can just move the ridge near the Aleutians we can actually get a semblance of a good pattern. But also trusting these models in the long range whether it shows cold and snow or warm weather is foolish.
 
Last edited:
ATLwxfan said:
Huffman not quite as bullish on January cold. Warning shots. Or shall we call them warming shots?

Let’s fire up the February thread.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
He shouldn't be, honestly. A few weeks ago, he was quite bearish. Then he turned bullish with everyone else. Now he's back to somewhat bearish again. One thing I have noticed over the last decade in particular, is that the art of forecasting is not advancing very rapidly. Model accuracy is advancing (allegedly), access to data is advancing, sharing and spreading of information is advancing, but forecasting really isn't so much.

Everyone looks at the same data, and 98% of the general forecasting community gets to pretty much the same idea, which is based on the same model output that everyone sees. So you get these bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations within, for example, a period where the pattern is not very good for the entire period. Why? Because the model data shifts. You get a few good runs in a row followed by a few bad runs in a row. We rely too much on this, IMO.

Understanding model biases, background conditions, pattern persistence, pattern recognition, etc. would help cut down on the bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations. But long range forecasting is hard. It's not as easy as understanding or even successfully predicting the evolution of one index. Models help, but the ubiquitous access to 24/7 data hasn't really helped improve the actual art of forecasting. This goes for both long range and short range.
 
Rain Cold said:
He shouldn't be, honestly. A few weeks ago, he was quite bearish. Then he turned bullish with everyone else. Now he's back to somewhat bearish again. One thing I have noticed over the last decade in particular, is that the art of forecasting is not advancing very rapidly. Model accuracy is advancing (allegedly), access to data is advancing, sharing and spreading of information is advancing, but forecasting really isn't so much.

Everyone looks at the same data, and 98% of the general forecasting community gets to pretty much the same idea, which is based on the same model output that everyone sees. So you get these bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations within, for example, a period where the pattern is not very good for the entire period. Why? Because the model data shifts. You get a few good runs in a row followed by a few bad runs in a row. We rely too much on this, IMO.

Understanding model biases, background conditions, pattern persistence, pattern recognition, etc. would help cut down on the bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations. But long range forecasting is hard. It's not as easy as understanding or even successfully predicting the evolution of one index. Models help, but the ubiquitous access to 24/7 data hasn't really helped improve the actual art of forecasting. This goes for both long range and short range.
Click to expand...
The science and understanding of meteorology is a dying thing. Modelology however is a live and well. Old school meteorologists know how to use models as just 1 part of their forecast making. Knowing models bias and flaws and knowing where they typically are accurate is a part. Just because a model isn't showing a solution doesn't mean that the ingredients aren't there and that a bias could be holding it back from accurately painting the correct picture. Pro Mets are good as they are because they take a lot of other factors into account when trying to forecast 5, 10, 30, 90 days down the road.
 
What frustrates me the most is that we really aren't that far away from a classic or at least a better winter pattern and we have seen that pop up from time to time on the longer range gfs and some of the ensembles. A few somewhat subtle changes from the okhotsk region to nw Canada flips this from generally warm with a few cool shots to generally cold with a few warm periods. Such is the nature of living by the pacific pattern. The one thing that is a weird bonus for us father east in the region is that with the Pacific trough digging slightly farther west we allow the ridge to poke more into the central US and troughing and cool shots to get driven in on the eastern flank
 
Last edited:
Now, this is an interesting change the 12Z GFS fantasy range cooked up.

gfs_z500a_namer_61.png
 
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

wkxzteq_anm.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

View attachment 98717
Click to expand...
When is our next super Niño ? I loved the last one !
 
Webberweather53 said:
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

View attachment 98717
Click to expand...

So we can look forward to next winter without La Nina, right?
 
Poimen said:
So we can look forward to next winter without La Nina, right?
Click to expand...

Seems pretty likely based on the very persistent and strong West Pac MJO activity of late and response of the thermocline (& Kelvin Waves that will follow), we're not going to have La Nina this coming spring or summer.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Thank god we’re getting the bad trends now .. eventually we will get good trends but this is putting a damper on pattern changing the 27-3rd .. another classic kicking of the can but I’d rather kick it in late December than late February lol
Click to expand...

Someone better find a can to kick then.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top