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Pattern Januworry

0Z GEFS is largely lackluster for most of its run but it looks like it might try to look nice near the end of the run. Fingers crossed.

Edit: indeed, looks nice pretty late ?
 
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There is no favorable phase anymore, things don't work like they used too and as far as the eye can see it's torch with intermittent cool shots but no pattern that favors winter in the SE. Our small window of opportunity in January is closing, La Nina Febs suck and who wants snow in March anyway. Next
 
The UK used to have one of these charts but I can't find it anymore. It was pretty good, IIRC. Anyway, not far from reversing into 6 again, just like last year. Need it to progress through 7 and toward 8. Clearly not going to happen very fast.
 
7 is the single snowiest phase in NC.
I keep hearing that, and statistically speaking that may be true...but I can't figure out why, if that's the case, we keep seeing the rest of the country get cold except for the SE, even though we're progged to be in phase 7 for the next 2 weeks. Is snowfall more likely in late Jan phase 7 or in an El Nino phase 7 or a la nada phase 7 or just in the mountains phase 7? Or is it just generally, in the winter, we get more snow in phase 7, irrespective of everything else? Not trying to be a negative Nancy, just trying to understand, because the stats don't pass the eye test right now for me. I don't see anything shown on the models for the next 2 weeks that looks snowy for NC, even though we're going to be in phase 7.

Anyway, how's the CFS?
 
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